Five Most Popular Posts in June

It was a touch quieter this month on the blog. More anon. But tradition is tradition and as a stickler for stability of expectations, here are the five posts that did the best in June.

1. Taken for a Mug
2. Geoffrey Wheatcroft at the End of the Tories
3. From U-Turn to U-Bend
4. What I've Been Reading Recently
5. Local Council By-Elections May 2025

With thin pickings to choose from, the great internet travelling public gravitated toward the substantive pieces. As they always do! In at one, ee have a meditation on Zia Yusuf's resignation from Reform chair, something he rescinded in short order. Demonstrating that the man is still a mug. Number two was my look at another entry in the death-of-the-Tories literature, this time being from someone who partly influenced my book (plug, plug). This was followed by Rachel Reeves's partial retreat on winter fuel allowance. A concession much overshadowed in recent days re: the government's disorderly retreat on cutting disability support. And then we have two of the regular fillers. A look at recent books read, and a round up of May's council by-elections.

What's going on? Normally happy to mouth off on anything and everything political, this month I've missed a short war, two instances of the government's authoritarian overreach, the latest round of Trumpist degeneracy, and the greatest threat to Keir Starmer's authority he's yet faced. Usual grist to the blogging mill you wmight think, but unfortunately I've had to take a rest. It started with the worst cold I've ever had, and immediately dumped upon it was something that has required nearly all of my energy. And because of this, I've given over evenings to winding down and low effort posting. I cannot say when normalcy will resume.

July could bring an upturn in posting, and it might not. Whatever, I'll keep this place ticking over for the forseeable.

Quarter Two Council By-Election Results 2025

This quarter 297,521 votes were cast in 149 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 82 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter One's results here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Q1	+/- Q2 2024	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	147	53,525	18.0%	-4.1	-9.2	364	-6
Labour	145	50,735	17.1%	-4.8	-16.4	350	-46
Lib Dem	123	62,894	21.1%	+3.3	+2.7	511	+6
Reform*	130	74,022	24.9%	+8.2	+24.3	569	+49
Green	120	31,785	10.7%	+3.1	+0.5	265	+6
SNP**	5	3,578	1.2%	-5.4	-0.7	716	0
PC***	4	890	0.3%	-0.1	+0.2	223	0
Ind****	70	14,951	5.0%	-0.6	-0.9	214	-6
Other*****	43	5,143	1.7%	+0.5	-1.8	120	-3

* Reform's comparison results for 2024 are based on recomputing their tallies in Others over the respective quarter
** There were five by-elections in Scotland
*** There were four by-elections in Wales
**** There were nine Independent clashes
***** Others this quarter consisted of Alba (91, 47), Blue (11), Britain First (22), Christian People's Alliance (24, 23), Communist League (8), Gwlad (9), Heritage (44, 16), Homeland (26), Jago (7), Liberal (16), Oxted Residents (890), Patria (7, 7), Rejoin EU (65), Scottish Family Party (34, 25), Scottish Libertarian Party (25), Social Justice Party (118), Tattenham's Residents (2,084), Tunbrudge Wells Alliance (416, 62), TUSC (91, 91, 62, 47, 43, 39, 35, 34, 30, 25, 23, 17, 10), UKIP (21, 15, 14, 10, 5), Workers Party (398), Yorkshire Party (58)

Well done the Labour Party. Under Keir Starmer's leadership, never - not even the Tories at their very worst, and certainly not Labour under Jeremy Corbyn - has one of the main parties of government performed as abysmally in the quarter's round up as this. The vote has sunk well below the Liberal Democrats, and the seat loss, which is supposed to matter the most, is laughably bad. Labour chose to hollow out its vote prior to last year's general election, and in office they've carried on in this vein. The base is corroding, and it's because the party has showered its support in an acid rain of policy. Local council by-elections don't really matter in the grand scheme of things, but they are weather vanes and they are showing the crisis in Labour's support is real.

Not that the Tories can feel smug. Their pitched decline isn't as dramatic as Labour's because they were already at rock bottom. But as they're finding out, it can get worse. They can be completely buried, As noted yesterday, Labour can - in theory - turn their ship around. But no such luxury is available for the Conservative Party. The doom is upon them and this time it's hard to see how they might throw it off, unless they merge with Reform and let Nigel Farage take over.

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Local Council By-Elections June 2025

This month saw 73,858 votes cast in 30 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 20 council seats changed hands. For comparison with May's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- May	+/- Jun 24	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	28	10,945	14.8%	-4.6	-10.2	391	-3
Labour	29	12,783	17.3%	+0.6	-16.7	441	-9
Lib Dem	25	12,677	17.2%	-5.4	+2.8	507	+2
Reform*	31	23,072	31.2%	+8.1	+29.9	744	+12
Green	26	7,320	9.9%	-0.8	+3.7	282	+2
SNP**	3	1,100	1.5%	+1.0	-5.2	367	0
PC***	0			-			0
Ind****	24	5,412	7.3%	+2.9	-2.2	226	-2
Other*****	12	549	0.7%	-1.5	-1.2	46	-2

* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There were three by-elections in Scotland
*** There were no by-elections in Wales
**** There were four Independent clashes
***** Others in June consisted of Alba (91), Britain First (22), Scottish Family Party (34), Scottish Libertarian Party (25), Social Justice Party (118), TUSC (62, 43, 39, 35, 17), UKIP (5), Yorkshire Party (58)

Is this what realignment looks like? While that question can only get settled by future elections, these results are catastrophic for the main two parties. Wherever Reform stands, particularly against Labour, incumbents are brushed aside with barely any ground game. In these sorts of places, the right wing vote has fled the Tories and, combined with the sliver of Reform-curious Labour voters and the none-of-the-aboves, the hype that Farage's party is the anti-establishment party is real. But while Labour simply caves in when Reform put up a candidate, the Tories - in receipt of one of their lowest by-election popular votes ever - are still capable of taking consolation seats from Labour.

This, however, hides the depths of the crisis of "sensible" politics. On paper, Labour are still the masters of their destiny because they are in office. They could transform their fortunes by adopting a popular policy agenda and getting rid of Keir Starmer, who now has the miasma of Truss-like failure pooling about him. The Tories, however, do not have this luxury. The more they turn to the right, the more they affirm the efficacy of Reform-style politics, and the more obsolete they become. While some in Labour have woken up to the problem, the same cannot be said for the Conservatives. And now, given these results and more dark times to come, for them it might already be too late.

5 June
Amber Valley, Somercotes, Ref gain from Lab
King's Lynn & West Norfolk, Fairstead, Ref gain from Lab
King's Lynn & West Norfolk, North Lynn, Ref gain from Lab
Tendring, Frinton, Ref gain from Con
West Sussex, Burgess Hill North, LDem hold
West Sussex, Hassocks & Burgess Hill South, LDem hold
West Sussex, St Leonard's Forest, LDem gain from Con
Wokingham, Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates, LDem gain from Con

11 June
Stroud, Severn, Grn gain from Lab

12 June
Leeds, Morley South, Ref gain from Ind
Mid Suffolk, Haughley, Stowupland & Wetherden, Grn hold
North Northamptonshire, Higham Ferrers, Ref gain from LDem, Con gain from LDem
Nottinghamshire, Mansfield North, Ref gain from Con, Ref gain from Lab

19 June
Adur, Buckingham, Lab hold
City of London, Vintry, Ind hold
Highland, Cromarty Firth, Ind hold
Highland, Eilean a' Cheò, Ind hold
North Yorkshire, Eastfield, Ref gain from Oth
Sefton, Blundellsands, Lab hold
Spelthorne, Ashford Town, LDem gain from Con

26 June
Basildon, Wickford Park, Ref gain from Ind
Chorley, Buckshaw & Whittle, Con gain from Lab
Edinburgh, Fountainbridge & Craiglockhart, LDem gain from Lab
Greenwich, Shooters Hill, Grn gain from Lab
Mid Devon, Crediton Lawrence, LDem hold
Rossendale, Whitworth, Ref gain from Oth
Rother, Catsfield & Crowhurst, LDem hold
Sheffield, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Ref gain from Lab
South Staffordshire, Great Wyrley Landywood, Con hold
Stevenage, Bedwell, Lab hold

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