After Angela Rayner

So much for my forecasts. The report of the government's standards' advisor found that Angela Rayner's failure to pay the correct stamp duty on her £850k Brighton pad was not motivated by avoidance, but she should have sought the appropriate specialist advice. As such, she broke the Ministerial Code. Under these circumstances, there was no way Rayner could brazen it out as many a Tory minister had under the ancien regime, and she quickly located a sword to fall on to. This left Keir Starmer with two headaches. Who to appoint Deputy Prime Minister, and the difficulties arising from the election of a new Deputy Leader for the Labour Party.

To be fair to Starmer, and true to his state bureacrat background he has moved swiftly to prevent festering speculation by carrying out a major cabinet reshuffle. David Lammy is Rayner's replacement, and adds Lord Chancellor and the justice brief to his portfolio. Yvette Cooper Has been shifted from the Home Office to Foreign Secretary. Whether that's because Starmer is dissatisfied with her performance in the doomed effort to stop the boats awaits commentary from helpful insiders. She's replaced by Shabana Mahmood, who has something of a reputation of taking on thankless tasks and, before Labour entered government, received little thanks in return. The recently promoted Darren Jones find his new job as cabinet enforcer (the absurdly-titled Chancellor of the Grand Duchy of Lancaster) subsuminng his new-old job as Chief Secretary to the PM. Pat McFadden is off to the DWP, while Liz Kendall carries the can for the welfare debacle and resurfaces as science minister. Also in is Wee Dougie as the Scotland minister, and out is Ian Murray - a permanently soggy tea towel long overdue a hanging-out to-dry. And gone is Lucy Powell, or Andy Burnham's representative in cabinet. With her and Rayner warming seats on the backbenches, no other Labour cabinet has had as many right wingers sitting around the table.

Stuffing your top team with think-alikes presents its own problem: the other trends and shades of opinion in the parliamentary party do not have representatives shaping "phase two" of Starmer's government. Appearing decisive and not shilly-shallying around with the appointments closes down speculation now, but could cause political problems later. And this is where the deputy leadership contest rears its ugly head.

With the cabinet a monochromatic grey of tired, obsolete managerialism, there is every danger the upcoming election might see an outbreak of politics. Of course, the gatekeepers will ensure that no one from the Campaign Group will get a look in. But there is unhappiness on the backbenches. Careerists impatient to begin climbing the career ladder, honourable members irked at McSweeney's arrogance and thuggery, worry warts concerned that the racism is inflaming, not dampening support for Reform, Starmer supporting the Palestinian genocide, and going out of their way to attack the most vulnerable. The moment is ripe for old hands and new faces to make a splash, and therefore the possibility of embarrassment. For Starmer, it would be preferable that the contest did not happen and that a single loyalist figure comes forward, but the pre-recess welfare rebellion makes such an enforced outcome difficult. McSweeney's threats didn't work then and caused a great deal of upset among the PLP. With the party firmly on the skids they probably won't cut the mustard now.

And whatever the outcome, though the appointment of the party's deputy leader as Deputy Prime Minister is a convention, the presence of another politician with their own mandate from the MPs, membership, and union affiliates acts as a pressure on Starmer. He might, horrors, have to accommodate mass opinion. Blocking a contest, nobbling the candidates, or later refusing to appoint the deputy is not without risks. Especially now a left alternative is coalescing. So Rayner is down and out for now, but the mess she leaves is fraught with beartraps for a clodhopping leadership.

image Credit