What Was the Point?

Across the land, grass has withered and died under the relentless glare of the burning sun. A climate catastrophe to be sure, but one that serves as an apt metaphor for the travails of Nigel Farage. At least as it exists in his and Reform's political imaginary. Instead of a drought, this was supposed to be Farage's evergreen summer. A hapless Prime Minister in office, racist pogroms to egg on and exploit, immigration to bang on about, and an establishment stitch up re: the parliamentary standards investigation to cry over. The master plan in forcing the by-election was about crushing the other parties, cementing Farage as the enfant terrible of British politics, and recapturing a sense of momentum - something that has been lacking, despite handily winning May's council elections in England and giving Labour a drubbing in the Senedd election. As we know, the one thing this elegant demonstration of 11-dimensional chess did not factor in was the refusal of his opponents to play ball. Instead, Clacton became an irrelevant sideshow of Farage vs a large field of "comedy" candidates, independents, and an oil slick of fascists hailing from tiny groupings and one-man bands. Small wonder he cried off giving a victory speech.

A Count Binface victory would have been funny, and driven a stake through Reform from which it would never recover. But this was never a serious proposition. On a reduced turnout of 44%, which is down on the general election but is roughly the kind of reduction one normally expects from a parliamentary by-election, Farage was able to poll 63.3% of the vote. An increase of just over a 1,000 ballots in raw vote terms on 2024, but proportionally a 17-point gain. Most politicians would be happy with that, but Reform's most enthusiastic supporters would have hoped for an even more emphatic win. Especially up against unorganised opposition and a cadre of joke candidates. Also interesting was the shrinkage of the right bloc in Clacton, as noted by Luke Tryl. It's almost as if their kind of politics are in long-term decline, or something. Count Binface also made history, ensuring immortality in the footnotes of political science journals. Not only was his 26.9% the highest ever polled by a spoof candidate in a UK parliamentary by-election, he's the first to hold on to his deposit.

On reacting to his win, Farage said the result "spoke for itself" and was open about not wanting to be pictured alongside his opponents. And then, because there's never not an opportunity to inject grievance politics, a Reform spox said Farage stayed away from the count after police had warned that there was a credible threat of disruption. Something Essex Police have denied.

What now? In the immortal words of Theresa May, nothing has changed. The standards investigation into Christopher Harborne's £5m "gift" restarts, which is likely to result in a suspension and another by-election in the Autumn. If Farage is going to quit politics for the quiet, lucrative life of right wing celebrity, this will be the moment. And the political atmosphere Reform now operate in is not as congenial. The Times-led investigations into the party's funding have severely dented Farage, and are subject to money laundering investigations by the police. Easy mode is no longer available to Farage and friends. They also have to adjust to life under Andy Burnham's premiership. Most polls are now posting modest Labour leads, and the government are gingerly talking about the good things they have done in office. The cost-of-living announcements over the last few weeks, while marginal in the scheme of things, do show a direction of travel to former Labour voters that they approve. On this, Reform has absolutely nothing to say and are out of sorts. This is compounded by Farage himself enjoying the most negative personal ratings of any party leader, and looking ever more shiftier in his efforts at dodging accountability. In all, the Clacton by-election was a waste of time and leaves Reform and Farage in a worse position.

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