The Des A masterful gambit this is not. For one, the formal investigation into his troughing does not go away. Assuming Farage is returned to the Commons it simply picks up where it left off. The possibility of a recall petition and a second Clacton by-election some time in the Autumn cannot be discounted. The second was Farage assumed all the other parties would play ball, relishing the chance of having a crack at him in his stronghold to feed his David vs Goliath posturing. Which has already backfired. The Tories, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats aren't going to dignify Farage's by-election stunt with a candidate. If there is any sense, nor should the Greens. Also out is Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain, who say they're holding fire for the proper by-election-to-come following the standards investigation. Therefore, the Reform leader is going to look silly railing against the establishment from the victor's podium, flanked by Count Binface, the Monster Raving Loony Party, and whoever else fancies pouring their deposit down a drain.
Without much of a contest, the media interest is unlikely to make much of the by-election. Undoubtedly, Farage was hoping Clacton would generate Makerfield levels of publicity and allow him to dominate the summer's politics coverage, wresting the spotlight away from Andy Burnham. Instead, other parties choosing not to participate makes the by-election look like a pointless waste of time. The punters of Clacton will be wondering why this farce is even happening, and a few might be turned off from the Reform leader because of this frivolous waste of money. While simultaneously reminding them that the stakes of this contest is he right to take free gifts and cash money. How man-of-the-people of him.
Farage's gambit smacks of desperation. Having been an adroit and skillful operator for so long, in his hubris he might think nemesis is never going to come for him. Hoping that no one cares about his capacious pockets nor the crude political favours he's done in return for cash, such as bigging up crypto, and prominently featuring JCB machinery on local election literature, how the £5m story refuses to go away and keeps getting murkier has left him at a complete loss of what to do. Lying about it, dismissing it, being brazen about it, none have worked as allegations pile on allegations. Farage must rue the day when he decided not to apologise for failing to declare Christopher Harborne's gift and tried to fight it. A case, perhaps, of his being high on his own supply and thinking nothing can touch him nor the solid layer of Reform support that has proven resilient versus everything else thrown at him. This is a moment of maximum peril for Farage and his political chances, made more delicious by how it's entirely self-inflicted.
3 comments:
I think a poster on another thread pointed out this is all very sloppy from Farage. His numerous side hustles are hardly a secret and aren't particularly of concern to those who vote for him. He should have just declared the gift and then taken the half-hearted flak from his opponents (many of whom also get gifts, donations or have other jobs, albeit probably not so financially rewarding). And this is the thing, the UK could have much tighter rules on how politicians are financed and what they get up to outside of their political role, but no party has yet figured out how to tighten them in a way that binds their opponents but not themselves.
Are you sure it is so perilous? Right wing politicians seem to be able to ride these scandals out. Think of Trump and his rape trial, Sarkozy and Lybian money, Johnson and any number of misdemeanors. There popularity with their supportes seems to hold - and the UK Polling shows little impact so far.
I suppose it will give Farage an insight into what Corbyn had to face for 2-3 years. sSo far Farage doesn't seem to have to worry about influential elements in his own party fanning the media campaigns against him.
McIntosh is right, I fear - he may have fallen flat on his face on the first attempt, but as long as he doesn't lose his nerve, sooner or later Toad will find a way to successfully spin this saga (including his probably inevitable suspension from the commons) as the plucky fight of an outsider against the oppressive establishment, which is half of his entire brand. The other half being his unashamed public representation of all the base and loathsome character traits which his core supporters must constantly fear to express, and constantly boil with anger about the fact that they must fear to express them.
Clacton was chosen as his beachhead fortress for a reason. He'll probably snarl and spit but otherwise endure his face-off with Binface, then snarl and spit but otherwise endure the investigation and suspension, then fight and win the second by-election, then grandstand about how "the people" have stood behind him twice.
Much more tantalising for us, and threatening for his ambitions, is the possibility that his decade-plus free ride with (and copious freebies from) the mainstream media has finally come to an end. The core consumers of his brand may be a majority in Clacton but nationally they are probably outnumbered by those who find it toxic, and therefore he won't win a national election unless his opponents simply fail to competently show up - a la the Democrats in the USA, and Labour until very recently. I'm sure he has some idea of how many of his votes are actually "none of the above" protest votes (doubled by "none of the above" abstentions). If his main opponents pick up their game by at least the minimum amount necessary, AND his key de facto allies in the media suddenly turn against him, then his project is on the skids.
Boris Johnson also looked unsinkable by scandal until the scandals just kept coming. Death by a thousand cuts! Of course, BoJo had the disadvantage of actually being in power at the time.
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