Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Sep
|
+/- Oct 23
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
58
| 30,275 |
27.4%
| +4.4 |
+4.4
|
522
|
+10
|
Labour
|
53
| 24,767 |
22.4%
| -6.3 |
-6.2
| 467
|
-15
|
Lib Dem
|
56
| 23,484
|
21.2%
| +5.6 |
+1.1
|
419
|
+2
|
Reform*
|
21
| 5,933
|
5.4%
| +0.3 |
+4.9
|
283
|
+2
|
Green
|
47
| 12,148
|
11.0%
| -0.9
|
-5.9
|
258
|
+3
|
SNP**
|
5
| 4,467 |
4.0%
| -0.4 |
+4.0
| 893
|
+1
|
PC***
|
5
| 1,618 |
1.5%
| +1.3 |
+1.5
|
324
|
0
|
Ind****
|
26
| 5,473 |
4.9%
|
+1.8
|
211
|
-3
| |
Other*****
|
22
|
2.3%
| +1.3 |
-6.0
|
113
|
0 |
* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from Others over the last month/year
** There were five by-elections in Scotland
*** There were seven by-elections in Wales
**** There were two Independent clashes
***** Others this month consisted of Alba (178), British Unionist (241), Coventry Citizens Party (94), Progressive Change (529), SDP (26, 12), Skegness Urba District Society (79), TUSC (327, 116, 76, 44, 35, 18), UKIP (23, 11), Workers' Party (212, 143, 133, 80, 47, 35, 32)
What a terrible month for Labour. October 2024 is the worst month the party has experienced since May 2021, when all the by-elections postponed during the Covid lockdowns were held. That was at the height of Boris Johnson's powers. This month Labour dropped 15 seats, its worst result outside of that crushing occasion. It's not difficult to see why when the two policies that have had that all-important "cut through" was the winter fuel farce and raising the bus fare cap. Both punitive and mean-spirited, and so local by-election voters have responded as they might. Especially when the elderly disproportionately vote in them. To see the leaderless Tories bounce back in seats gained and winning the popular vote is unconscionable. Naturally, Labour's leadership doesn't care but it should. With its Westminster dominance perched on precarious majaorities, the signs are already there that its precarious foundations are getting eaten away thanks to its arrogance and stupidity. A small gift for Kemi Badenoch then.
Elsewhere, sundry press outlets have got excited by Reform picking up two seats from Labour. This we're supposed to believe heralds a new dawn for British politics. While it is standing in more seats since the general election, its spread so far is less than that enjoyed by UKIP when it was a contender. Despite being better funded, better publicised, and polling slightly better than its predecessor party. And yet again, the fact the Greens performed better and won three seats is ignored by the same.
Next month will probably be a repeat of this month. There are a similar number of by-elections being contested, but with the added effect of 15 of them being in Scotland. That might lead to some interesting distortion effects when it comes to vote share.
3 October
Blackpool, Marton, Ref gain from Lab
Dundee, Lochee, SNP gain from Lab
Dundee, Strathmartine, SNP hold
Lancaster, Scotforth East, Grn gain from Lab
9 October
Powys, Machynlleth, PC gain from Ind
10 October
Coventry, St Michael's, Lab hold
Ealing, Hanger Hill, LDem gain from Con
Ealing, Northolt Mandeville, Lab hold
Ealing, South Acton, Lab hold
Elmbridge, Hersham Village, Con gain from LDem
Elmbridge, Weybridge St George's Hill, Con hold
Fylde, Warton, Con gain from Ind
Harlow, Little Parndon & Town Centre, Lab hold
Leeds, Farnley & Wortley, Grn gain from Lab
Lewes, Wivelsfield, Grn hold
North East Derbyshire, Clay Cross North, Con gain from Lab
North Lanarkshire, Fortissat, Lab hold
North Lanarkshire, Mossend & Holytown, Lab hold
North Northamptonshire, Burton & Broughton, Con hold
Pembrokeshire, The Havens, Con gain from Ind
Runnymede, Addlestone South, Con hold
South Ribble, Bamber Bridge West, Lab hold
Southampton, Shirley, LDem gain from Lab
Suffolk, Hoxne & Eye, Con hold
Worthing, Heene, Con gain from Lab
17 October
Ashford, Aylesford & East Stour, Grn gain from Lab
Bexley, Belvedere, Lab hold
Ceredigion, Tirymynach, LDem hold
Cumberland, Keswick, Lab hold
Cumberland, Wetheral, Con hold
Falkirk, Falkirk South, Lab hold
Greenwich, Eltham Town & Avery Hill, Con gain from Lab
Gwynedd, Llanberis, PC hold
Kirklees, Holme Valley South, Con gain from Lab
North Hertfordshire, Royston Palace, Lab hold
St Albans, Harpenden North & Rural, Con gain from LDem
Stockport, Bredbury Green & Romiley , LDem hold
Stockport, Cheadle West & Gatley, LDem hold
Swindon, Rodbourne Cheney, Con gain from Lab
Westmorland & Furness, Grange & Cartmel, LDem hold
Windsor & Maidenhead, Ascot and Sunninghill, Con hold
24 October
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole, Muscliff and Strouden Park, Con gain from Ind
Calderdale, Calder, Lab hold
Crawley, Northgate & West Green, Lab hold
Denbighshire, Prestatyn North, Con gain from Lab
East Lindsey, Croft, Con hold
Gateshead, Whickham North, LDem hold
Isle of Anglesey, Talybolion, Ind gain from PC
Middlesbrough, Hemlington, Lab hold
Monmouthshire, Town, Con gain from Lab
New Forest, Barton & Becton, Con hold
South Cambridgeshire, Histon & Impington, LDem hold
South Ribble, Middleforth, Con gain from Lab
Surrey Heath, Old Dean, LDem gain from Con
31 October
Charnwood, Sileby & Seagrave, Grn hold
Hampshire, Bishops Waltham, LDem gain from Con
Rochdale, North Middleton, Ind hold
Salford, Eccles, Lab hold
Stockport, Bramhall South & Woodhall, Con gain from LDem
Westmorland & Furness, Kirkby Stephen & Tebay, LDem gain from Con
Wolverhampton, Bilston North, Ref gain from Lab
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