Triangulating Trouble

Looking at Monday's speech about Britain becoming a "clean energy superpower", Keir Starmer again focused on the "iron rules" of fiscal credibility. And those rules mean limiting daily spending to the taxation take and getting the public debt falling by the end of the next parliament. It's like we've gone back 10 years and disinterred the "in the black Labour" prospectus that got the wonks hot under the collar. Fat lot of good Labour's adaptation to this agenda did when 2015 swung round. But now the lay of the land is different. After a modest convergence of the polls the gaps after this weekend of partygate reminders have widened again. It appears nothing can stop Labour from winning the next election, which raises the question about why Starmer and Rachel Reeves are not just pushing the fiscal rules line, but are rowing back on a slate of promises. What's in it for them politically?

If we want to take a 4D chess approach, remembering that Reeves is a whizz on the chequered board, being seen to gut Labour policies has a theory of political success behind it. Following the self-serving incantations of electoral wizard Peter Mandelson, if a Labour leader seizes hold of a radical pledge and opens its throat in full view of the public, those voters will beat a path to the party's door. Seriousness and intent is measured not by the desire to implement and deliver a policy, but by abandoning it. This demonstrates ruthlessness and leadership, qualities swing voters apparently are ga-ga for. It shows a Labour leader will not be bound by their supporters, and can be trusted to kick them in the teeth. Even when it's not necessary. Added to this is Ed Miliband's contribution to received Labour thinking. If you don't promise anything, that gives you room to pull policy rabbits out of a hat. This approach of under-promising so one can "over-deliver" keeps the party in charge of the political agenda, its opponents guessing what might come next, and avoids the bad press that comes with making policy commitments in advance. Boris Johnson's 2019 manifesto was a variant of this. Rustle up a thin document, concentrate on one thing (Brexit), and then boosterise every meagre "achievement" afterwards for political gain. We know how well that ultimately turned out.

And there are the elite vibes Starmer has to mollify. The oil interests must be placated. The Tory press have to be assured Labour aren't going to encroach on monopoly property, and our friend Mandy knows it's important to dampen down expectations that government might do something beneficial for the people of this country. The palest red reflection of Rishi Sunak's grim determination to do absolutely nothing. And, in classic New Labour style, there's no political price to pay. Those who were inspired to vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour twice aren't about to support the Tories, so fuck 'em. There are no costs for offering a pro-establishment, pro-consensus programme. And the fact their opponents on the left can't lay a glove on them only emboldens their "hard-headed" approach to winning power.

But there is a problem. People who voted Labour recently and are put off by Starmer's shameless abandonment of soft left Corbyn-lite politics do have places to go. It's unlikely they will give Labour the heave-ho in the short-term, but once in office and carrying on in this vein, opportunities will open up for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. One previously supportive milieu, already disappointed with Starmer's dishonest disavowal of recent history, will use remainism and calls to return to the EU as a rallying cry. Starmer's cowardice on trans rights and pretending to be as "unreconstructed" as a Daily Mail editorial is already seeing millions of people putting on their nose pegs. Once in Number 10, it will be their voting allegiances that switch. Continuing with an authoritarian politics will sap Labour's coalition. And the stalling of the green energy transition will toxify Labour, particularly among younger people, for years to come. The Lib Dems and the Greens will be there, waiting to seize their chances. And those chances will fall and fall regularly.

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