It's worth noting that having delivered the Committee's verdict, not only did Johnson impugn the integrity of the process (which was a very different story when it got under way) but serving parliamentarians have done so, putting them in line for some sort of standards slap-on-the-wrist. This has occasioned complaints and strong words from the more liberal quarters of the establishment, with the Johnson malcontents being accused of undermining parliamentary democracy. Though we'll note many of those same voices have little to say about what's happening in HM Opposition at the moment, and egged on the theatrics and hysterics that took place between 2015 and 2019 where centrists did their bit for trampling on the procedural norms of British democracy.
I digress. While it seems the Johnson stans are on a kamikaze trajectory and have completely lost their marbles, there is method to their madness. They might be consumed by righteous fury because Johnson, for the first time in his gilded life, has had to face the consequences of his actions, but for your Dorries and Moggs their party's chances of winning the next election follows their idol into the fire. If you don't pay any attention to the polls and you haven't updated your thinking since December 2019, it makes sense. Superficially, Johnson was able to appeal to millions of voters on the basis of Brexit. Like many in liberal/centrist/europhile land, plenty of right wingers interpreted that as an endorsement of socially conservative, populist, beggar-they-neighbour politics. It was wrong, but when groupthink seizes Westminster - buoyed by helpful columnists and so-called political scientists - it's very hard to think outside the herd. As right wing Tory politicians are not noted for their intellectual gravitas, you can understand why they'd be caught up in it too.
Because it was successful once, it might be successful again. With Johnson front and centre, his supposed popularity married to loud war on woke idiocies and bombastic promises of sunlit uplands to come was, as far as the fan club go, a straightforward strategy to take the fight to Labour. Never mind Johnson's Tories were trailing between 12 and 17 points when he left office. The facts don't matter. Again, as per centrism and right wing Labour, it's the vibes that do. But the vibes they were attuned to were the reverberations from 2019, not the signals getting blasted at them since Partygate became a scandal. Their four-year-feel for politics trumps all the polling, including the very negative number Johnson has attracted since all this blew up. The only thing that matters for them is the memory of their triumph, and its subsequent betrayal by an ingrate chancellor and no-mark, no-hope MPs elected off the back of Johnson's efforts.
And so as we look forward to the first missive from Johnson in an upcoming snoreaway Mail, it's worth remembering the seeming irrationality of his admirers and supporters is rooted in a semi-coherent, but wrong reading of politics. It's entirely explicable and understandable, and one that will continue to exercise a pull on the Conservative Party for years to come.
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5 comments:
Apparently, his column is going to be “required reading in Westminster, and around the world” pronounced the Mail.
So, the Mail, which is cost cutting shells out a “high six figure” p.a. payment for a column on his inability to not eat cheese and Spanish sausages after 11 pm and the diet injection which didn’t work for him.
Required reading?
Thoughts on inside No. 10?
His “stitch up” by Harriet Harman?
The snake Sunak?How is Brexit going?
No.
None of the above.
Unsurprisingly, he and the Mail are being ridiculed. A good start to the weekend.
«They might be consumed by righteous fury because Johnson, for the first time in his gilded life, has had to face the consequences of his actions, but for your Dorries and Moggs their party's chances of winning the next election follows their idol into the fire. If you don't pay any attention to the polls»
They are consumed by fury because the Conservative press has been attacking a certain group of Conservative leaders. Since Starmer became New, New Labour leader they know that the "opposition" is as thatcherite as the Conservatives, so the "The Establishment" can afford to "burn" the Conservatives to get rid o the kipper nationalist faction.
«Superficially, Johnson was able to appeal to millions of voters on the basis of Brexit. Like many in liberal/centrist/europhile land, plenty of right wingers interpreted that as an endorsement of socially conservative, populist, beggar-they-neighbour politics. It was wrong, but when groupthink seizes Westminster»
Whether it was wrong or right New, New Labour came to exactly that same conclusion and Starmer is now targeting as his core constituency hardcore kippers with property.
«Never mind Johnson's Tories were trailing between 12 and 17 points when he left office»
The polls based on percentage points don't matter much because like in elections that don't matter (european ones, by-elections, ...) voters know that their material interests are not at stake and they can do protest votes.
«Again, as per centrism and right wing Labour, it's the vibes that do. But the vibes they were attuned to were the reverberations from 2019, not the signals getting blasted at them since Partygate became a scandal [...] the very negative number Johnson has attracted since all this blew up.»
But again Partygate became a scandal only because Conservative official and politicians took photos and video to leak them to the Conservative press to mount a campaign against the Conservative leaders of another faction.
«Their four-year-feel for politics trumps all the polling»
I agree with our blogger than betting as the Conservatives and New, New Labour (and the LibDems in a different way) on 4 year old politics is wrong, but for a completely different reason: it is not Johnson's antics that swing middle-class voters (they knew well what kind of knave he is four years ago too) but as our blogger keeps reminding us it is their class interests that drive their votes.
And that means as our blogger keeps reminding those are the interests of the affluent pensioner or near-pension property owners, and an increasing number of them are not content with *negative* 7-9% real interest rates, that make property even more of a one-way bet.
Also the less affluent of them are resentful that even if their pensions are doing a lot better than wages they are still rising not quite as fast as inflation. They are also annoyed that even if immigration has been booming, the wages of their servants (cares, cleaners, nurses, ...) are still too high (even if servant wages are rising much less than inflation).
What could yet put Starmer in power is not the Westminster "gotcha" game about "work parties", but that after ballooning rather faster than the usual 7-10% per year during 2020, 2021 and most of 2022, they turned soft at the end of 2022, even falling back to the levels of spring 2022, something that they find outrageous.
The many millions of right-wing voters who care very much about that care a lot less about the covert political war between kipper and globalist thatcherites that is translated into the overt press campaigns by the right-wing press against (the wrong sort of) right-wing leaders.
Stab-in-the-back, innit? "Boris did nothing wrong!!!!!" Sure, he's a lying, self-serving sack of shit who doesn't much care about anyone but himself, but we knew that.
Also, Nadine Dorries, published author, apparently doesn't know what "immediate" means. Such intellectual giants we're ruled by!
«Stab-in-the-back, innit? "Boris did nothing wrong!!!!!" Sure, he's a lying, self-serving»
My opinion is that he is both a disgusting spiv *and* he was stabbed in the back, because his "work meetings" pretty minor transgressions would never have come to light, and would have never been blown up into major issues, but for the persistency of Conservative officials and MPs and newspapers doing the dirty works of another Conservative faction,
It gives me no pleasure that the campaign against him was been similar in process (but very different in content) as that against Corbyn,
I'm annoyed with Boris. He should either have stood up (more) to the Stalinists insisting on locking us down, or gone along with it.
But democratic politics is, above all else, about process. And what has just happened is a very shaky process has just been installed right into the heart of parliamentary politics.
I seem to have been lied to by centrist politicians for decades. What about all those who promised various disasters if the UK voted to leave the EU and have been proved wrong? Do they get suspended? What about Dawn Butler talking in the house about sex being 'assigned at birth'? It's clearly a lie. Does she get banned too?
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