Quarter Two Local By-Election Results 2016

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Q1	Average/ contest	+/-   Q1	+/- Seats
Conservative	99	71,089	29.4%	+2.4%	718	+351	-11
Labour	95	83,941	34.7%	+6.6%	884	+423	+3
LibDem	70	26,245	10.9%	-5.5%	375	+75	+4
UKIP	63	24,227	10.0%	+0.4%	385	+180	+1
Green	48	14,497	6.0%	+2.5%	302	+199	+1
SNP*	3	5,849	2.4%	-3.2%	1,950	+755	0
PC**	5	574	0.2%	+0.2%	115	+115	0
TUSC	9	754	0.3%	+0.1%	84	-58	0
Ind***	37	13,065	5.4%	+1.8%	353	+245	+2
Other****	13	1,378	0.6%	-2.3%	106	-354	0

* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There were five by-elections in Wales
*** There were eight independent clashes
**** Others this quarter were Pirate Party (26 and 4 votes), All People's Party (46, 64, 22, and 25 votes), An Independence from Europe (77 votes), BNP (73 and 105 votes), NF (14 votes), Loughton Residents' Association (659 votes), and Yorkshire First (131 and 133 votes)

Overall, 241,619 votes were cast over 106 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 27 council seats changed hands. For comparison see Quarter One's results here.

This quarter by-election results were distorted, as they always are, by that year's council elections. All parties tend to roll their by-elections over (if they can) to take advantage of the larger turnout and level of campaigning activity. As these were mainly areas Labour could be expected to do well in, unsurprisingly Labour takes the top spot this quarter.

What will happen when we come to review by-elections at the end of September is bound to be interesting. With the referendum done, how will this impact on the fortunes of the parties. Will UKIP decline further, assuming its support returns to the Tories? Will Labour and the LibDems particularly profit from angry Remain voters? We wait with bated breath.

Local Council By-Elections June 2016

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  May	Average/ contest	+/-   May	+/- Seats
Conservative	17	8,122	24.5%	-5.2%	478	-287	-3
Labour	16	7,901	24.2%	-13.3%	494	-525	-1
LibDem	14	5,643	17.3%	+7.8%	403	+32	+2
UKIP	10	4,062	12.4%	+2.6%	406	+2	+1
Green	11	2,686	8.2%	+2.3%	244	-97	+1
SNP*	1	1,055	3.2%	+1.5%	1,055	-2,142	-1
PC**	3	440	1.3%	+1.1%	146	-194	0
TUSC	2	45	0.1%	-0.3%	23	-78	0
Ind***	9	2,569	7.9%	+3.2%	285	-75	+1
Other****	2	109	0.3%	-0.3%	55	-60	0

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were three by-elections in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of the BNP (105 votes) and the Pirate Party (4 votes)

Overall, 32,632 votes were cast over 17 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. The Conservatives won three contests, Labour four, LibDems four, UKIP one, Greens one, and Independents four, while seven council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with May's results, see here.

As you can see, it was a pretty close-run thing this month vote-wise, perhaps reflecting the level-pegging in many polls. Small contests with low turnouts depressed the vote of the two main parties while support for the major minor parties inflated their totals. Nevertheless, as I've been saying for months the move to the LibDems is real: its results in actual elections have always outperformed the polls. UKIP have also grown their support this month, picking up one seat off Labour. But is that it as far as the purples go? They've achieved their major objective, so now what? A dwindling of their fortunes is what I forecast for them, though they have been on the slippery since last year's election. We'll deal with them in a dedicated post over the weekend.

Other items of note, the BNP make a rare foray and in its state of decrepitude turns in a better performance than two far left candidates and the pointless Pirate Party combined. The Greens have out-organised UKIP and managed the rare feat of beating the indies. Overall an interesting month, but the fun begins in July with our first proper Brexiting Britain vote.

Five Most Popular Posts in June

Five most read last month were:

1. EU Referendum: What Would Trotsky Do?
2. Against the Corbyn Coup
3. The Lexit Delusion
4. A Socialist Case for Remain
5. The Culmination of Toxic Politics

June 2016 was the month that broke politics. It almost broke the blog, too. 93,000 page views are a ridiculous number for a shoestring outfit like mine. To put it into context, the previous record was set in January when I toasted 67,000 page views. Well, there's a mass politicisation going on so why shouldn't the finest politics blog written in Stoke-on-Trent capture a slice of the action?

But it has been the most awful, absurd month in modern British political history. The farce of the Battle of the Thames was followed by the awful tragedy of Jo Cox. Unfortunately, the lessons that should have been taken from that were downgraded to a quaint aspiration within days as the Brexit vote effectively destroyed all the certainties about British politics, and plunged us into the worst crisis for 60 years. Just as Suez finally rammed home that the days of Britannia ruling the waves were over, so this mess of a referendum threw up an ugliness that modern, liberal, tolerant Britain had thought long exorcised. The shock isn't just political, it's a return of the repressed.

Politics therefore come to the fore this last month with posts about the left case for remaining doing well, beaten by the was-it/wasn't-it coup against Jeremy Corbyn and the attendant shit storm, and topped off with a fun bit of sectariana. No one cares what Trotsky thinks any more, though the audience figures for that particular piece suggest otherwise.