Local Council By-Elections June 2016

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  May	Average/ contest	+/-   May	+/- Seats
Conservative	17	8,122	24.5%	-5.2%	478	-287	-3
Labour	16	7,901	24.2%	-13.3%	494	-525	-1
LibDem	14	5,643	17.3%	+7.8%	403	+32	+2
UKIP	10	4,062	12.4%	+2.6%	406	+2	+1
Green	11	2,686	8.2%	+2.3%	244	-97	+1
SNP*	1	1,055	3.2%	+1.5%	1,055	-2,142	-1
PC**	3	440	1.3%	+1.1%	146	-194	0
TUSC	2	45	0.1%	-0.3%	23	-78	0
Ind***	9	2,569	7.9%	+3.2%	285	-75	+1
Other****	2	109	0.3%	-0.3%	55	-60	0

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were three by-elections in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of the BNP (105 votes) and the Pirate Party (4 votes)

Overall, 32,632 votes were cast over 17 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. The Conservatives won three contests, Labour four, LibDems four, UKIP one, Greens one, and Independents four, while seven council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with May's results, see here.

As you can see, it was a pretty close-run thing this month vote-wise, perhaps reflecting the level-pegging in many polls. Small contests with low turnouts depressed the vote of the two main parties while support for the major minor parties inflated their totals. Nevertheless, as I've been saying for months the move to the LibDems is real: its results in actual elections have always outperformed the polls. UKIP have also grown their support this month, picking up one seat off Labour. But is that it as far as the purples go? They've achieved their major objective, so now what? A dwindling of their fortunes is what I forecast for them, though they have been on the slippery since last year's election. We'll deal with them in a dedicated post over the weekend.

Other items of note, the BNP make a rare foray and in its state of decrepitude turns in a better performance than two far left candidates and the pointless Pirate Party combined. The Greens have out-organised UKIP and managed the rare feat of beating the indies. Overall an interesting month, but the fun begins in July with our first proper Brexiting Britain vote.