Saturday 2 July 2016

Quarter Two Local By-Election Results 2016

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q1
Average/
contest
+/-  
Q1
+/-
Seats
Conservative
   99
71,089
  29.4%
 +2.4%
    718
  +351
   -11
Labour
   95
83,941
  34.7%
 +6.6%
    884
  +423
   +3
LibDem
   70
26,245
  10.9%
  -5.5%
    375
   +75
   +4
UKIP
   63
24,227
  10.0%
 +0.4%
    385
  +180
   +1
Green
   48
14,497
    6.0%
 +2.5%
    302
  +199
   +1
SNP*
    3
 5,849
    2.4%
  -3.2%
  1,950
  +755
     0
PC**
    5
   574
    0.2%
 +0.2%
    115
  +115
     0
TUSC
    9
   754
    0.3%
 +0.1%
     84
    -58
     0
Ind***
   37
13,065
    5.4%
 +1.8%
    353
  +245
   +2
Other****
   13
 1,378
    0.6%
  -2.3%
    106
   -354
     0

* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There were five by-elections in Wales
*** There were eight independent clashes
**** Others this quarter were Pirate Party (26 and 4 votes), All People's Party (46, 64, 22, and 25 votes), An Independence from Europe (77 votes), BNP (73 and 105 votes), NF (14 votes), Loughton Residents' Association (659 votes), and Yorkshire First (131 and 133 votes)

Overall, 241,619 votes were cast over 106 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 27 council seats changed hands. For comparison see Quarter One's results here.

This quarter by-election results were distorted, as they always are, by that year's council elections. All parties tend to roll their by-elections over (if they can) to take advantage of the larger turnout and level of campaigning activity. As these were mainly areas Labour could be expected to do well in, unsurprisingly Labour takes the top spot this quarter.

What will happen when we come to review by-elections at the end of September is bound to be interesting. With the referendum done, how will this impact on the fortunes of the parties. Will UKIP decline further, assuming its support returns to the Tories? Will Labour and the LibDems particularly profit from angry Remain voters? We wait with bated breath.

1 comment:

Boffy said...

The fact that they by elections were in Labour areas, however, makes the losses of the Tories, and the gains of Labour more significant, because in Labour areas, you would only expect to hold existing seats, and making further gains is more difficult.

Once again it demolishes the idea that Corbyn's Labour party is unpopular, despite the attempts to wreck it by Blair-rights.