Writing at the end of last week, court chronicler Patrick Maguire had some useful advice to proffer. Labour should do what its right wing normally does, and look Down Under. A victorious election earlier this year, and polling that still puts them ahead of the Coalition is not to be sniffed at. Despite the rude intrusion of expenses scandals, they appear to be doing something right. Maguire reports that Bridget Phillipson has spent some time with the Labor Party, and she was impressed. Their secret? Bear down on the cost of living. Her behind-the-scenes advocacy for lifting the child benefit cap, and advocacy of cash transfers for parents instead of funded child care places are what she's brought to the table. And there's more!
We learn that the cost of living will be the focus of Starmer's big January speech, and the emphasis will be on what Labour has done to put pounds in people's pockets. Which, to be accurate, is what last month's budget is forecast to do. There will be more forthright language as well - Wes Streeting's "frustrations" with wonk-speak have been heard, it appears.
Could this herald a new spring for Labour? There are two problems. The first is that the party are skirting around the problem. Another big boost to the minimum wage and lifting the cap are welcome, and last week's interest rate cut also provides some relief to mortgage holders. But on price rises themselves, wages are still catching up with 2022's inflation spike. The increase in the median wage reported in April did outpace inflation, but for many people the ticking upwards of the food shop, rents, domestic energy bills, and insurance premiums makes it feel that the cost of living is too high. If Labour want to be seen as serious on this issue, they need to get more populist in their rhetoric and table legislation targetting profiteering and landlords. Measures I am sure they will never introduce.
The second is more explicitly political. The government completely lacks credibility. If the cost of living was prioritised at the beginning of Starmer's premiership, Labour would now be in a much better position. Instead we got a penny pinching move against pensioners' winter fuel payments and ministers demonstrated they could be just as entitled - and as sleazy - as the Tories by glutinously grubbing in the freebie trough. It's been downhill ever seen, except they've brought forward more policies and initiatives that have dispersed their support further. Are people in general going to start listening as government talking heads complain about the cost of living, while trumpeting their tinkering around the edges? Will the progressive support base Labour has ceded to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats get won back when other parts of the government are briefing against equalising the minimum wage, and Labour Together want to undo the thrice watered down workers' rights package?
Unfortunately, the May-time massacre in local government is nailed on, and most have already made their mind up about Starmer. But still, his replacement - provided they break with the backsliders on the right - would inherit a set of positions that might cause punters to reassess. A fresh face fronting a recognisably Labourish set of priorities could work. The Prime Minister though, this is all a bit too late for him.
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