Kemi Badenoch's Precarious Victory

As forecast, Kemi Badenoch won the leadership contest. It's fitting that a politician noted for peddling poisonous politics should grasp the poisoned chalice that is the Conservative Party. If there was any consolation for outside observers to this most abysmal (some might say abyssal) of contests and who care about transparency and honesty in politics, it's that Tory party members saw through Jackanory Jenrick's cynical posturing. He ran the most dishonest and right wing campaign ever run by a Tory leadership candidate, and it got rejected. Albeit in favour of the contender that genuinely believes this drivel.

During the campaign Badenoch repeatedly disgraced herself and her party by thinking aloud ridiculous positions guaranteed to keep the Tories in the slow lane. A reminder that she described maternity pay as a burden, questioned the minimum wage and made disparaging remarks about carers, suggested conservative students were victimised by our red base universities, and that she became working class after a brief stint working at McDonald's. She's almost a case of Nigel Farage meets Walter Mitty. Contrast this with her tone when she took to the podium to accept her victory, she served up the usual waffle about unity, holding Labour to account, winning back voters lost, being honest about "mistakes", and becoming the next government. On the surface a more reasonable, conciliatory approach. Though one doesn't have to spend much time guessing what Badenoch meant by "defending our principles". She rounded off her address by saying the party and the country needed a "new start". And how did this come over in her first interview on Sunday's Laura Kuenssberg? Very much like the old start. Her first policy commitment: reversing the levying of VAT on private school fees.

We know the Conservatives have troubles, but immediately Badenoch has some unique difficulties. Winning 56% to 44% among the membership meant her win was the narrowest since the Tories moved to their present method of electing leaders in 2001 - not the most overwhelming of mandates. More pressing is the parliamentary party arithmetic. In the final round of voting, 42 MPs of the 121 survivors of July's wipe out chose her. 41 went for Jenrick, and 39 for James Cleverly. Going back to the first round she came second with just 22 supporters - about a sixth of the selectorate. This latter figure suggests a very small base of genuine supporters, and that if things go wrong this might not be enough to avoid an Iain Duncan Smith-style fate.

The second problem is that third of the parliamentary party that went for Cleverly. The briefcase wing had their noses put out of joint when their man unexpectedly failed to make it to the final two. I'm not saying they've thrown a fit of pique, but Cleverly and Jeremy Hunt have ruled themselves out from taking a front bench position, and Rishi Sunak and Oliver Dowden are contemplating life outside of politics with resignations expected to land in time for next year's local elections. Having fought and won a campaign to prosecute the culture wars, the centre right-leaning minority in the Commons will be weary of getting too closely involved. Sure, in her Kuenssberg interview Badenoch said she would look at reaching across the party when she appoints her shadow cabinet on Tuesday, and some will be tempted by jobs and the opportunity to try and shape her leadership in a direction they find more congenial. Likewise, because of her position in the party - and the fact just having 121 MPs makes filling all the shadow roles a difficult task. She's going to have to tone down the bullshit to try and keep the party together as a going oppositional concern. But there will be tensions seeing as, throughout the period of the campaign, Badenoch found it irresistible to keep shifting further to the right. With a lengthy period of opposition likely, the prospect of a rapid return to government just isn't there to discipline disgruntled shadow ministers.

And there is the medium term problem of scraping together a coalition that could defeat Labour in four or five years. There is an outside chance that this is possible, but the politics of 2028/9 will have moved on. If this week's budget works and Labour are able to modernise the state further and public sector institutions are properly funded and functioning, then Badenoch's going to have a hard time presenting a coherent alternative that can win over enough of the party's support while also facing down the threat Reform poses the Tories on the right. Doing so requires a certain amount of deft politicking and flexible thinking. Qualities that Badenoch's leadership campaign has shown that the new Tory leader has cavernous deficits in.

Image Credit