Party | Number of Candidates | Total Vote | % | +/- Sept | +/- Sept 18 | Avge/ Contest | +/- Seats |
Conservative | 23 | 14260 | 34.9% | +1.2% | -1.5% | 620 | +2 |
Labour | 18 | 6,940 | 17.0% | -9.8% | -13.6% | 386 | -3 |
LibDem | 19 | 9,145 | 22.4% | -4.7% | +7.9% | 481 | +2 |
UKIP | 2 | 171 | 0.4% | +0.4% | -0.5% | 86 | 0 |
Green | 12 | 2,132 | 5.2% | +1.2% | -2.4% | 178 | 0 |
SNP | 1 | 1,797 | 4.4% | +0.3% | -1.1% | 1,797 | 0 |
PC** | 2 | 738 | 1.8% | +1.8% | +1.8% | 369 | 0 |
Ind*** | 9 | 4,297 | 10.5% | +5.2% | 477 | -1 | |
Other**** | 6 | 1,359 | 3.3% | +1.1% | +1.2% | 227 | 0 |
* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were four by-elections in Wales
*** There was one independent clash
**** Others this month consisted of the Brexit Party (299), For Britain (70), Holland on Sea & Eastcliff Matters (537), Red Party of Scotland (9), The Borough First (428), Women's Equality Party (16)
A good set of results if you're from the Tories and Liberal Democrats, definitely not if you're Labour. Yes, part of our party's problem in terms of vote share is not standing in enough seats, but with a vote average like that and dropping three councillors too is a bad show. Nevertheless, readers shouldn't feel despondent when they see the above. There are a few things worth noting. First, local by-elections are second order elections, and so people are more likely to stray from their first preference when it comes to choice of government. Two, those who have a bee in their bonnet about a particular issue are more likely to turn out at any given election - we say something similar before 2015 with UKIP's support. Three, there has been an unusual skew in by-election locations for the last few months toward Tory/LibDem marginals - this is not to explain away Labour's poor performance of late, And four, most voters stay at home for council by-elections with those more likely to vote generally turning out, which means older people. And as we know, their preferences are not evenly spread - they are much more likely to vote for the parties of the right. And so Labour, and to some extent the Greens, enter each round of council by-elections at a disadvantage.
How about the next month? All of November is going to get saturated with electioneering, and so even the most obscure by-election in the most obscure corner of the land will benefit from additional coverage and volunteers. And, very likely, the month's results are going to get poured over and the profundity of the punditry shared about what these local contests mean for the big competition. Whatever happens, you can count on all the results getting published here.
3rd October
Aberdeen UA, Bridge of Don, Con hold and SNP hold
Cardiff UA, Whitchurch & Tongwynlais, Con hold
Charnwood BC, Syston West, Con hold
Essex CC, Clacton East, Ind hold
St Albans DC, Clarence, LDem hold
Somerset West and Taunton DC, Norton Fitzwarren & Staplegrove, LDem gain from Ind
10th October
Basingstoke and Deane DC, Bramley and Sherfield, Ind gain from Con
Corby DC, Beanfield, Lab hold
Watford DC, Tudor, LDem hold
17th October
Gravesham BC, Westcourt, Con gain from Lab
Liverpool MBC, Princes Park, Lab hold
North Yorkshire CC, Upper Dales, Con gain from Ind
Richmondshire DC, Hawes, High Abbotside & Upper Swaledale, Ind hold
24th October
Daventry DC, Abbey North, Con gain from Lab
Devon CC, Heavitree and Whipton Barton, Lab hold
Flintshire UA, Bagillt West, Lab hold
Powys UA, Llandrindod North, Lib Dem gain from Con
Powys UA, Newtown South, Con hold
South Ribble DC, Coupe Green and Gregson Lane, Con hold
West Lindsay DC, Torksey, Con hold
Wiltshire UA, Melksham Without South, Con hold
29th October
Warwick DC, Leamington Lillington, LDem hold
30th October
Windsor and Maidenhead UA, Riverside, Con hold
31st October
Worcestershire CC, Bromsgrove South, Con gain from Lab
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