Quarter Three Local By-Election Results 2016

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Q2	Average/ contest	+/-   Q2	+/- Seats
Conservative	82	34,774	28.0%	-1.4%	424	-294	-8
Labour	73	35,883	28.9%	-5.8%	492	-392	-3
LibDem	65	22,388	18.0%	+7.1%	344	-31	+16
UKIP	52	11,562	9.3%	-0.7%	222	-163	-2
Green	33	4,632	3.7%	-2.3%	140	-162	0
SNP*	4	4,813	3.9%	+1.5%	1,203	-747	-1
PC**	5	1,421	1.1%	+0.9%	115	+115	+1
TUSC	0
Ind***	30	5,957	4.8%	-0.6%	199	-154	-5
Other****	18	2,711	2.2%	+1.6%	151	+45	+2

* There were four by-elections in Scotland
** There were seven by-elections in Wales
*** There were four Independent clashes
**** Others this quarter were Yorkshire First (91), People Before Profit (129), Justice and Anti-Corruption (41), Christian Alliance (29), Mebyon Kernow (161) (111), Socialist Labour Party (131), SDP (15), United Thanet (44), North East Party (15), Farnham Residents' Assoc (754) (386) (356), English Democrats (24), MIF (148), British Peoples Party (6), People First (64), and the Communist Party of Britain (86)

Overall, 124,141 votes were cast over 85 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 29 council seats changed hands. For comparison see Quarter Two's results here.

The first full quarter since the Brexit vote and what do we see? Stasis from UKIP and a surge for the pro-EU LibDems, with a net gain of 16 councillors. Coincidence? Yes and no. As a party, it is in ruder health than the immediate aftermath of the general election. It's undergone a few mini (by Labour's standards) member surges and is standing more widely than when it was in government, so an element of its support are those who didn't necessarily have the opportunity to vote for them previously. On the other hand, it is reasonable to assume there are some die-hards who are casting their vote to protest Brexit, though the rising support for LibDems in by-elections can be traced back to May 2015.

Meanwhile, not much is separating the main parties, with Labour having a slight edge. Can the logjam be broken and swing one way or the other any time soon?

Local Council By-Elections September 2016

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Aug	Average/ contest	+/-   Aug	+/- Seats
Conservative	31	13,829	29.7%	+0.9%	446	-65	-5
Labour	30	12,512	26.9%	-3.0%	417	-281	-1
LibDem	25	10,142	21.8%	+13.1%	406	+202	+8
UKIP	25	5,276	11.3%	+1.0%	211	-95	-1
Green	14	1,242	2.7%	+0.5%	89	-13	0
SNP*	1	1,261	2.7%	-6.8%	1,261	+77	-1
PC**	2	378	0.8%	+0.8%	189	+189	+1
TUSC	0						0
Ind***	6	1,610	3.5%	-1.9%	268	+16	-1
Other****	4	329	0.7%	-0.5%	82	-133	0

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were three by-elections in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others this month consisted of Mebyon Kernow (111), MIF (148), British Peoples Party (6), People First (64)

Overall, 46,579 votes were cast over 32 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. The Conservatives won 10 contests, Labour nine, LibDems 10, UKIP one, Plaid Cymru one, and Independents one. Conservatives and an Independent successfully defended a seat apiece by a safe margin (500+ votes), while 13 council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with Auguest's results, see here.

It was shaping up to be a dismal month for Labour, with the party losing three seats to the LibDems and on to the Tories, but something was salvaged by taking two back from the Conservatives and one from the SNP (!). It just kept getting worse for the Tories and they seemed particularly vulnerable to the yellow by-election surge, with the Libs seemingly coming from nowhere in a number of seats and taking them out. Can't say there will be many tears shed in my house about the blue team's performance though, annoyingly, they came out on top of the utterly meaningless by-election popular vote.

Meanwhile, as the LibDems surge in defiance of the polls, UKIP's under performance continues. 11.3% is certainly nothing for a minor party to be ashamed of, but considering how two years ago they were pulling in numbers like the Libs are now (though not the same numbers of seats, it has to be said), it's not looking great for them. Nor for the thesis they're about to displace Labour all across the north.