Quarter Four Local By-Election Results 2014

Party	Number of candidates	Total vote	%	+/-  Q2	Average/ contest	+/-  Q3	+/- Seats
Conservative	72	36,322	29.0%	+0.9%	504	+115	+1
Labour	67	29,952	23.9%	-2.5%	447	+57	-4
LibDem	44	13,440	10.7%	-3.6%	305	+18	+3
UKIP	60	23,648	18.9%	+3.7%	394	+124	+3
SNP*	6	7,200	5.8%	+5.1%	1,200	+605	+3
Plaid Cymru**	3	702	0.6%	-0.1%	351	+123	+1
Green	32	3,257	2.6%	-1.6%	102	-9	0
BNP	1	17	0.0%	+0.0%	17	-41	0
TUSC	8	219	0.2%	+0.1%	27	+8	0
Independent***	31	9,121	7.3%	+1.0%	294	+87	-2
Other****	7	1,248	1.0%	-3.0%	178	-119	-5

* There were six by-elections in Scotland.
** There were five by-elections in Wales.
*** There were three contests with independent clashes this quarter.
**** 'Other' this quarter were Justice (10), OMRLP (27) EngDem (5), Derwentside Ind (655), Canvey Island Ind (323), Community Action (29) and Lincolnshire Independents (199).

125,126 votes were cast over 75 individual local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. Fractions are rounded to one decimal place for percentages, and the nearest whole number for averages. You can compare these with Quarter Three 2014's results here.

So we enter the official long campaign with a set of local election numbers not looking too hot for Labour. On all the metrics it trails the Tories. The polls these last few days may place Labour in a healthier position, but these snapshots are real votes and the difference cannot be accounted for in terms of disproportionate numbers of contests being held in Conservative-tinged areas. This quarter has been that of the SNP surge, and there's no doubt they've ate part way into Labour's numbers. The Greens don't appear to have done however, despite the threat they are said to pose the party. Clearly there is no room for complacency.

UKIP are also doing extremely well. We shall see if their support starts dropping away as the election proper looms ever closer. Also of note, this is the third quarter in a row the Greens have out-organised the Independents. The significant membership growth is making a difference, though not having a hue impact on vote shares ... yet.