Quarter Four By-Election Results 2024

This quarter 231,558 votes were cast in 124 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 51 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter Three's results here.And yes, the table is rather ugly.

 

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Q3	+/- Q4 23	Avge/ Contest	Seats
Con	118	57,449	24.8%	+4.6	+0.6	487	+20
Lab	111	54,567	23.6%	-14.5	-1.3	492	-21
Lib Dem	110	45,254	19.5%	+4.7	-4.9	411	+2
Ref*	63	19,686	8.5%	+6.0	+7.9	312	+7
Grn	95	20,133	8.7%	-4.4	-2.8	212	+2
SNP**	22	18,020	7.8%	+6.3	+6.4	819	-3
PC***	6	1,706	0.7%	+0.5	+0.5	284	0
Ind****	60	10,161	4.4%	-4.1	-3.6	169	-5
Oth*****	45	4,582	2.0%	+0.7	-2.7	102	-2

* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies in Others over the last quarter/year
** There were 22 by-elections in Scotland
*** There were eight by-elections in Wales
**** There were nine Independent clashes
***** Others this quarter were Alba (239, 178, 118), British Unionist (241), Communist Party of Britain (23), Coventry Citizens Party (94), Heritage Party (61, 20, 11), Progressive Change (529), Propel (305), Scottish Family Party (83, 71, 53, 51, 25), Scottish Libertarian (15, 9), SDP (116, 33, 26, 12), Skegness Urba District Society (79), Socialist Party of Great Britain (22), Swanscombe & Greenhithe Residents' Association (395, 252), TUSC (327, 116, 76, 68, 56, 44, 35, 25, 18), UKIP (23, 11), Workers' Party (212, 143, 133, 80, 47, 40, 35, 32). The comparison figures from last year have been recomputed minus Reform's contribution.

The unprecedented becomes the precedented. No party has won such a huge parliamentary victory and seen their fortunes reverse as quickly. No party that has suffered an historic defeat has rebounded as rapidly. But these are what the numbers say. Political fortunes were going to turn against Labour at some point, and when they did the impact was always going to be disproprortionately felt at the level of council by-elections. Why? Because the age/turnout effect, i.e. the greater propensity to vote as one goes up the age range, is even more exacerbated for second order elections. And this is aggravated further by what looks like an across-the-board reduction in turnout since the general election. This matters because for the last 15 years the right have consolidated their support among older people, and when you consider how Labour expended its meagre political capital on a pointless attack on the elderly, you can see where their problems began. Caveats aside, it used to be the case that popular vote share tallies were simply effects of what was happening locally with some national overdetermination. Now, at least where the two main parties are concerned, the polls are resembling the by-elections.

Leaving aside the large SNP vote as an artefact of a greater number of Scottish by-elections than normal, the story of the quarter is the continued rise of Reform. The period underplays their potential strength because they have not stood in anywhere near as many seats as the other parties, and it's this spread of candidates that, at least for the Greens, in making them look better right now. Here the vote average is a good indicator of strength and this quarter we see that Reform is now fourth place in England and Wales, but did out-perform the Liberal Democrats in December. Unfortunately, thanks to the favourable media environment and Reform's slight age/turnout advantage over the other parties bar the Tories, if Nigel Farage can find enough candidates this rise is going to continue.

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Local Council By-Elections December 2024

This month saw 26,636 votes cast in 18 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Seven council seats changed hands. For comparison with November's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Nov	+/- Dec 23	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	15	5,894	22.1%	-0.5	-12.3	393	+3
Labour	15	6,502	24.4%	-0.3	+8.7	433	-4
Lib Dem	14	4,445	16.7%	-1.7	-24.2	318	0
Reform*	11	4,192	15.7%	+5.6	+15.5	381	+2
Green	11	1,883	7.1%	+0.6	+0.6	171	0
SNP**	2	1,712	6.4%	-6.2	+6.4	856	0
PC***	1	88	0.3%	+0.3	+0.3	88	0
Ind****	14	1,489	5.6%	+2.2	+4.3	106	-1
Other*****	2	421	1.6%	-0.2	+1.6	211	0

* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies from last year's Others
** There were two by-elections in Scotland
*** There was one by-election in Wales
**** There were four Independent clashes
***** Others this month consisted of Propel (305) and the SDP (116). The comparison figures from last year have been recomputed minus Reform's contribution.

The golden age of dozens and dozens of by-elections per month are now over, but that makes no difference to Labour's woes. Losing more than half of the seats being defended is not a good look, especially when the reactionary pairing of the Tories and Reform are helping themselves. Very few thought Labour's performance at the ballot box would nosedive so quickly after July, but that was before Winter Fuel, freebiegate, and all the rest. And it's the troops in local government who are ponying up the political price in the first instance. You don't need to wear tin foil hats to see the cancellation of some council elections this May because of the local governmentt reorganisation as a touch suss.

The Tories probably can't believe their luck as they come out on top yet again. But the results are a warning for them too. Despite getting more seats, they dropped greater vote share and the beneficiaries of that were Reform. Indeed, the votes per candidate average sis a creditable performance for the challenger party and how they are closing in on the Conservatives, which might be bad news in a general election scenario. A widespread Reform challenge five years from now makes it harder for the Tories to recover lost seats, unless some sort of deal is cut. On the wider ramifications and what kind of threat Farage presents Labour is something I'll look at in the quarterly round up.

January wil be an anomaly as there are more than a handful of by-elections scheduled. I cannot see the results being much different to those closing off 2024.

5 December
Cardiff, Splott, Lab hold
Fylde, Kilgrimol, Con gain from Ind
Glasgow, Partick East/Kelvindale, Lab gain from SNP
South Oxfordshire, Cholsey, LDem hold
Stirling, Stirling East, SNP gain from Lab
Wokingham, Shinfield, Con gain from Lab

12 December
Barnsley, Dodworth, LDem hold
Chelmsford, South Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting, Con hold
Essex, Stock, Con hold
Runnymede, Ottershaw, Ind hold
St Helens, Blackbrook, Ref gain from Lab
Wakefield, Featherstone, Lab hold

19 December
City of London, Bassishaw, Ind hold
City of London, Billingsgate, Ind hold
City of London, Broad Street, Ind hold
Dudley, Brockmoor & Pensnett, Con gain from Lab
Greenwich, West Thamesmead, Lab hold
Swale, Milton Regis, Ref gain from Lab

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