Quarter Four 2025 By-Elections Results

This quarter 151,522 votes were cast in 80 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 53(!) council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter Three's results here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Q3	+/- Q4 24	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	82	25,728	17.0%	+0.4	-7.8	314	-12
Labour	70	17,319	11.4%	-5.7	-12.2	247	-16
Lib Dem	73	31.413	20.7%	+3.8	+2.2	430	+10
Reform	80	36,875	29.3%	+2.4	+20.8	461	+25
Green	58	14,355	9.5%	-0.6	+0.8	248	-1
SNP*	6	5,426	3.6%	+2.4	-4.2	904	0
PC**	2	1,615	1.1%	-1.2	+0.4	808	0
Ind***	51	9,566	6.3%	-1.6	+1.9	188	-7
Other****	14	2,740	1.8%	+0.9	-0.2	196	+1

* There were six by-elections in Scotland
** There were two by-elections in Wales
*** There were 12 Independent clashes
**** Others this quarter were Alba (83), Broxtowe Alliance (388), Caterham Residents (131), Equality Party (45), Guildford Residents (565), Heritage Party (97, 27), Lingfield and Crowhurst Residents (457), Our West Lancashire (704), Rejoin EU (81), SDP (4), Sovereignty (45), Tunbridge Wells Alliance (105), TUSC (8)

Yes, that is Labour's worst ever quarterly result. It also coincides with Reform's best ever tally. Adding to Labour's misery is the collapse in their vote average to a touch below the Greens, and their being comprehensively out-organised by three of their four main opponents. Surely, surely it can't get any worse? Oh it most certainly can. The only consolation for Labour supporters is that while the Tory vote is holding up better than their, they too are shedding council seats like they're going out of fashion.  Meanwhile, Reform can look forward to more local government tithes pouring into their coffers.

What a state for British politics to be in at the end of the year.

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Labour's Cost-of-Living Turn

We all like a happy Christmas, but it's unlikely Keir Starmer is in for much festive cheer. Polls are regularly pointing to less than a fifth of the popular vote, his personal ratings have shot out the bottom of Antarctica, and pretenders to the Labour crown are hardly discreet about their aspirations. Ahead of the new year, the Prime Minister, Morgan McSweeney, and others wedded to this disaster have got to be thinking about how to turn this around.

Writing at the end of last week, court chronicler Patrick Maguire had some useful advice to proffer. Labour should do what its right wing normally does, and look Down Under. A victorious election earlier this year, and polling that still puts them ahead of the Coalition is not to be sniffed at. Despite the rude intrusion of expenses scandals, they appear to be doing something right. Maguire reports that Bridget Phillipson has spent some time with the Labor Party, and she was impressed. Their secret? Bear down on the cost of living. Her behind-the-scenes advocacy for lifting the child benefit cap, and advocacy of cash transfers for parents instead of funded child care places are what she's brought to the table. And there's more!

We learn that the cost of living will be the focus of Starmer's big January speech, and the emphasis will be on what Labour has done to put pounds in people's pockets. Which, to be accurate, is what last month's budget is forecast to do. There will be more forthright language as well - Wes Streeting's "frustrations" with wonk-speak have been heard, it appears.

Could this herald a new spring for Labour? There are two problems. The first is that the party are skirting around the problem. Another big boost to the minimum wage and lifting the cap are welcome, and last week's interest rate cut also provides some relief to mortgage holders. But on price rises themselves, wages are still catching up with 2022's inflation spike. The increase in the median wage reported in April did outpace inflation, but for many people the ticking upwards of the food shop, rents, domestic energy bills, and insurance premiums makes it feel that the cost of living is too high. If Labour want to be seen as serious on this issue, they need to get more populist in their rhetoric and table legislation targetting profiteering and landlords. Measures I am sure they will never introduce.

The second is more explicitly political. The government completely lacks credibility. If the cost of living was prioritised at the beginning of Starmer's premiership, Labour would now be in a much better position. Instead we got a penny pinching move against pensioners' winter fuel payments and ministers demonstrated they could be just as entitled - and as sleazy - as the Tories by glutinously grubbing in the freebie trough. It's been downhill ever seen, except they've brought forward more policies and initiatives that have dispersed their support further. Are people in general going to start listening as government talking heads complain about the cost of living, while trumpeting their tinkering around the edges? Will the progressive support base Labour has ceded to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats get won back when other parts of the government are briefing against equalising the minimum wage, and Labour Together want to undo the thrice watered down workers' rights package?

Unfortunately, the May-time massacre in local government is nailed on, and most have already made their mind up about Starmer. But still, his replacement - provided they break with the backsliders on the right - would inherit a set of positions that might cause punters to reassess. A fresh face fronting a recognisably Labourish set of priorities could work. The Prime Minister though, this is all a bit too late for him.

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Local Council By-Elections December 2025

This month saw 30,896 votes cast in 20 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 11 council seats changed hands. For comparison with November's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Nov	+/- Dec 24	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	20	6,013	19.5%	+2.2	-2.6	301	-3
Labour	17	2,913	9.4%	-1.5	-15.0	171	-4
Lib Dem	17	6,367	20.6%	+7.8	+3.9	375	+1
Reform	19	9,570	31.0%	+3.4	+15.3	504	+7
Green	15	2,535	8.2%	-5.0	+1.1	169	0
SNP*	2	1,693	5.5%	+0.4	-0.9	847	-1
PC**	1	956	3.1%	+1.5	+2.8	956	0
Ind***	10	1,413	4.6%	-5.6	-1.0	141	-1
Other****	2	392	1.3%	-0.5	-0.3	196	+1

* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes
**** Others this month were Broxtowe Alliance (388), SDP (4)

Congratulations to the Labour Party. I thought last month was the pits, but December's results haven't met even my low expectatons. Vote tallies for by-elections indicate nothing apart from the a party's standing among the hardest of hardcore voters. And, demographically speaking, skew toward the elderly and the right. But even so, never before has Labour done as bad as this. Not even during the bleakest moments of the Corbyn years when the party was assailed by the media, and its coalition split by Brexit. Labour's run is worse than it ever was for the Tories got hammered in the wake of Liz Truss, which leaves one question. Can their support drop even further?

Meanwhile, Reform continue to benefit from a political environment Labour and the Tories think are to their advantage. The Conservative vote is proving more resilient, but you might expect that in a set of contests with an over-representation of right wing voters. A shame for them the same cannot be said for their seat retention. And so, as mainstream politics edges further to the right, Nigel Farage's followers are there to profit from it.

The Liberal Democrats managed to turn in a creditable performance, whereas this month the Green surge was but a rumour. And note the large vote for Plaid Cymru. Yes, it was a seat they already held but their share of the poll, when Welsh by-elections come around, have been scooting upwards.

In all, the last round of 2025's by-elections were great for Reform, very encouraging for the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, and catastrophic for Labour. If Labour doesn't get rid of its leader and change direction, words much to this effect will appear here this time next year.

2 December
Derbyshire, Long Eaton North, Ref hold

4 December
Broxtowe, Stapleford South East, Oth gain from Lab
East Devon, Exmouth Halsdon, LDem hold
Middlesbrough, Nunthorpe, Ref gain from LDem
Torridge, Winkleigh, LDem gain from Con
Watford, Tudor, LDem hold

11 December
Caerphilly, Penyrheol, PC hold
Darlington, Red Hall & Lingfield, Ref gain from Lab
East Devon, Seaton, LDem gain from Con
Highland, Fort William & Ardnamurchan, LDem gain from SNP
Lichfield, Armitage & Handsacre, Con hold
South Kesteven, Aveland, Ref gain from Con
South Kesteven, Belmont, Ref gain from Ind
Stockton-on-Tees, Eaglescliffe West, Con hold
West Lothian, Whitburn & Blackburn, Ref gain from Lab

18 December
Blackpool, Greenlands, Ref gain from Lab
Cornwall, St Columb Minor & Colan, Ref hold
Harborough, Market Harborough Logan, Con gain from LDem
South Ribble, Broad Oak, LDem hold
Suffolk, Pakefield, Ref gain from Con

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