The Desperation of Nigel Farage

"This is 4D chess!!" shouted Matthew Goodwin into the howling void that is Twitter. With such an endorsement, you just know he was heaping praise on stupidity. And so it was. At 2pm Tuesday afternoon, Nigel Farage fielded a press conference about his political future. Was he going to resign? Yes! Sort of. Viewers were treated to a self-pitying whine about how terribly unfair it was that he wasn't allowed to trough on the freebies, gifts, and cash windfalls showered on him by billionaires, gold bullion companies, and convicted fraudsters without declaring them as per parliamentary rules. It's all a stitch up, he moaned, the establishment are out to get me! And so he's quitting his Clacton seat to force a by-election, showing the world that ordinary people back him.

The Des A masterful gambit this is not. For one, the formal investigation into his troughing does not go away. Assuming Farage is returned to the Commons it simply picks up where it left off. The possibility of a recall petition and a second Clacton by-election some time in the Autumn cannot be discounted. The second was Farage assumed all the other parties would play ball, relishing the chance of having a crack at him in his stronghold to feed his David vs Goliath posturing. Which has already backfired. The Tories, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats aren't going to dignify Farage's by-election stunt with a candidate. If there is any sense, nor should the Greens. Also out is Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain, who say they're holding fire for the proper by-election-to-come following the standards investigation. Therefore, the Reform leader is going to look silly railing against the establishment from the victor's podium, flanked by Count Binface, the Monster Raving Loony Party, and whoever else fancies pouring their deposit down a drain.

Without much of a contest, the media interest is unlikely to make much of the by-election. Undoubtedly, Farage was hoping Clacton would generate Makerfield levels of publicity and allow him to dominate the summer's politics coverage, wresting the spotlight away from Andy Burnham. Instead, other parties choosing not to participate makes the by-election look like a pointless waste of time. The punters of Clacton will be wondering why this farce is even happening, and a few might be turned off from the Reform leader because of this frivolous waste of money. While simultaneously reminding them that the stakes of this contest is he right to take free gifts and cash money. How man-of-the-people of him.

Farage's gambit smacks of desperation. Having been an adroit and skillful operator for so long, in his hubris he might think nemesis is never going to come for him. Hoping that no one cares about his capacious pockets nor the crude political favours he's done in return for cash, such as bigging up crypto, and prominently featuring JCB machinery on local election literature, how the £5m story refuses to go away and keeps getting murkier has left him at a complete loss of what to do. Lying about it, dismissing it, being brazen about it, none have worked as allegations pile on allegations. Farage must rue the day when he decided not to apologise for failing to declare Christopher Hoborne's gift and tried to fight it. A case, perhaps, of his being high on his own supply and thinking nothing can touch him nor the solid layer of Reform support that has proven resilient versus everything else thrown at him. This is a moment of maximum peril for Farage and his political chances, made more delicious by how it's entirely self-inflicted.