Monday, 7 August 2023

The Repeated Surrender to Tory Framing

In the 18 months prior to the 1997 general election, Labour was often criticised from the left for being overly cautious. This gently-does-it was encapsulated best by the Blair-Brown pledge to stick with Conservative spending plans for the first two years of government. The idea was to settle any jitters so-called Middle England (the right wing press) might have about New Labour, while taking the sting out of any attacks the Tories might launch. As the self-identified party of economic competence, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown wanted to annex this Tory asset and neutralise it. By this time, with Labour enjoying similar poll leads as the party does today it was probably moot. But it was understandable. Economic concerns torpedoed the 1992 general election for Labour, and so nothing was left to chance. Accepting these plans came with a price. It allowed the Tories to litter the Treasury with land mines that Blair and Brown then promised to tread on. The most explosive of which was cutting social security support for single parents, a political trap designed to force Labour to attack some of the most vulnerable women for point scoring purposes. And true to their word, the new government saw the attack through.

In other areas, however, New Labour was not so reticent. Though its programme didn't offer a qualitative change in the sense of breaking with the pro-market, neoliberal consensus established by Thatcher and bedded down by Major, a combination of rhetorically vicious attacks on the Tories, some good-sounding lines (tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime; education, education, education), a set of very modest pledges that at least gestured toward a fairer society, riding the tide of hope, and the baleful record of the Tories themselves ensured Labour scored a crushing victory.

Nearly 30 years on, and it seems the lessons learned by Keir Starmer from this period is to abandon the field of politics altogether. Or, to put it another way, accept Tory framing as sacrosanct on everything. The dishonest attacks by the likes of Grant Shapps that accuse Labour of being the political wing of Just Stop Oil are taken seriously by just one man: the Leader of the Opposition. Blair and Brown capitulated on economics but retained some autonomy on other political matters. Starmer, however, has surrendered across the board. North Sea exploration must be honoured, so the Tories gleefully issue scores of new licences while Starmer attacks Just Stop Oil as "contemptible". The Tories have their stop the boats/Rwanda scheme, and in their race to the gutter they want to use unsafe barges - redolent of 19th century prison hulks - to detain asylum seekers. This finds no opposition from Starmer, who says Labour will keep them too for as long as there's a backlog. And on the NHS, having thoroughly marketised it the Tories are busily defunding medicine and health to create a two-tier service. To this all Labour manages is a shrug, followed by a commitment to using private providers to plug the gaps the Tories have left. Despite it being a complete non-starter.

You could call this cowardly behaviour, but that lets Starmer and friends off the hook. They know an election win is virtually certain. You can look at the polls and note how Labour's double digit leads have been the norm for over a year now. The Tories have had their Black Wednesday moment. There's no chance of a John Major repeat, especially with Labour's huge support among working age people and a collapse in the Tory vote among the older/retired base. Blair's and Brown's caution on economics was well founded, as much as one might disagree with their take then. There is no such excuse now. Which ineluctably leads to one conclusion, that Starmer and co are not so much interested in power for a purpose as power in itself. His project, as correctly divined here many years ago, is interested only in restoring the authority of and modernising the state. It is an authoritarian project that puts state managers in the driving seat of politics, and anything that benefits people in general is a by-product of and not the objective of Starmerist policy. Without wanting to get too romantic about the history of the Labour Party, for them Labourism is about ministerial cars and briefcases. Not using the lever of policy to make life better or, with the looming catastrophe of climate change, dealing with serious and unavoidable problems.

This explains Starmer's willingness to accept Tory framings. There are no "tough choices" here, just a set of easy things to say that keeps the Tory media off their backs until they win the general election by default. And because they have accepted Tory framing, don't be surprised if Starmer is constantly steered by the front bench opposite as it gallops off further to the right. What a despicable position for the Labour Party to be in.

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14 comments:

Dipper said...

Sunak's attack lines are becoming clear.

He will go after those 'red wall' issues that divide the Labour Party. Immigration, cars, women's rights. He is seeking to get Starmer to get off the fence on these issues and open up splits in the Labour Party.

Sunak's pitch will be 'either Starmer agrees with me, in which case you should vote for me, or he agrees with those pro-migrant, pro JSO, pro trans-rights lunatics, in which case you should vote for me.'

And ... most political commentators are men. Men generally under-estimate the importance of women's right to women. A strong defence of women's sex-based rights could yet see Starmer at the very least having a nightmare trying to put a minority coalition government together, or even Sunak back in Number 10.

Imrix said...

Well yeah of course he is. The tories are imploding, the corporate donors are looking for a new horse to back to keep the gravy train rolling, positioning labour as safely identical to the old regime is very reassuring to the big business types.

Anonymous said...

Have you been purged from the party yet? It can't be long now, with final sentences like that one.

Jenny said...

It’s the ice cream van theory of politics. Imagine a long beach, going from left to right, and 2 ice cream sellers. The best place for the left van is slightly to the left of the right van, gathering in all those to the left and vice versa.. Assuming, ofc, the ice cream each sell is much the same. It can be disrupted by 3rd suppliers (UKIP, Greens) appearing significantly far from the “central “ duopoly. Then one of the two central vans moves towards the interloper to squeeze its share, while the other one may stay put or follow.

Old Trot said...

Good article, Phil. And , like Anonymous, I also wonder how long it will be before your expulsion notification arrives from Party HQ !

Dipper is of course a neoliberal Tory, but that doesn't mean his post here is wrong. Phil's post just throws in the issue of 'women's rights' as a possible source of Tory splitting issue tactics. Unfortunately, this just reflects the 'woke' bubble that you live in every day in academia, Phil. In the wider world, as was so recently shown in Scotland for the SNP, as soon as the mass of women grasp just what the entire extreme 'trans rights' agenda means for womens' sex-based rights and safe spaces, they react with complete revulsion and anger.

So with Labour simply mirroring all Tory policies to the letter, as this article correctly says, the power of the 'Trans Rights' issue to have a major impact on both women voters, and huge numbers of non metropolitan woke trendies, men too, to the advantage of the Tories could well be gigantic in 2024, not peripheral at all.

Starmer has already recognised this in his recent, slippery, rowing back on the 'women can have penises' guff - but it is far, far, too late for the Labour Party, and Greens, and Lib Dems, to escape the voting consequences of their long time espousal of this irrational doctrine - once the Tories go big time on it in the General Election. The simple question on its own of " What is a woman ?" addressed to Labour, Green and Lib Dem politicians, and their shifty answers, will be devastating for their voting performance outside the woke middle class big city bubble - never mind the wider issues of women's safe spaces , and sex-based rights.

McIntosh said...

Wish I shared your confidence on a Labour victory. The Tory Central Office attack team seem to be working very closely with the right wing press to co-ordinate propaganda and so solidify and amplify support. Today we have the 'Express' and 'Mail' focusing on corrupt, lefty lawyers, the 'Times' on wage rises and the 'Sun' on an eco loony Labour candidate.
We can expect this for the next 300 days till an election, galvanising the base to vote and the wavering to solidify. May be enough to stop Labour getting an overall majority and so needing the support of the Lib Dems.
And since Labour now has no ideology or philosophy to guide it, just a set of undeliverable 'missions' we are in for disillusionment and a Tory majority in 2029.

Anonymous said...

McIntosh

Come on, that is what people like you HOPE will happen.

But why?

Can you show me anywhere where accelerationism has actually worked??

Anonymous said...

If there's one thing that unites Old Trot and Dipper, it's their inability to grasp that trans rights is anything other than an attack on their personal idea of "the natural order", solidified in the respective indoctrinations of their youth.

Trot in particular seems to have memory-holed what happened to Alba. It's noticeable that the SNP's terfs and jenkies are only coming out of the woodwork now that Sturgeon - who they didn't dare challenge too openly - has finally been sunk too, and meanwhile the terfs and jenkies who were exploited to sink Alba are floating around without a home to go to.

Another thing that Dipper and Trot seem to share - and which no doubt some SNP politicians also do - is an overconfidence in how many people think exactly the way that they do. Like the inability to grasp ideas that simply weren't around when they were young, it's a trait which is actually common as muck; both stem from the same energy-saving strategy that produces "cognitive misers". Its electoral significance varies with the age distribution of voters, and I think our host blogger might know a thing or two about that.

Blissex said...

«a combination of rhetorically vicious attacks on the Tories, some good-sounding lines (tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime; education, education, education), a set of very modest pledges that at least gestured toward a fairer society, riding the tide of hope, and the baleful record of the Tories themselves ensured Labour scored a crushing victory.»

That is pretty much a pure exposition of the "spatial theory of voter choice" as possible: that voters care a lot about the fine details of manifesto positioning, and not at all about their material interests.

It must be therefore just an amazing coincidence that:

* In 1997 like in 2020 there was a switch of governing party soon after a massive property price fall.

* In 2001 and 2005 the New Labour vote, despite the same offer to voters as in 1997, collapsed to lower levels than in 1992 (and lower than in 2017 and 2019), and New Labour only won because the Conservative vote collapsed even more.

Blissex said...

«Starmer and co are not so much interested in power for a purpose as power in itself. [...] an authoritarian project that puts state managers in the driving seat of politics, and anything that benefits people in general is a by-product of and not the objective of Starmerist policy.»

I keep wondering why our blogger keeps repeating the bizarre claim that Starmer is an apolitical technocrat, when instead his politics are clear and explicit and are all about benefiting people, that is kippers with affluent lifestyles based on property and finance profits.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/dec/22/labour-targets-new-swing-voter-middle-aged-mortgage-man
«Party sees identifying 50-year-old male home-owners as key to electoral success this archetypical voter as male, 50 years old, without a university degree but with a decent job in the private sector and, crucially, a homeowner with a mortgage. This person almost certainly voted leave, Ford added, explaining Labour’s insistence that it will not take the UK back into the single market.»

Blissex said...

«Men generally under-estimate the importance of women's right to women.»

As to the "vote-moving issue" theory of voter choice, women's issues are far more often a vote-moving issue to women than men's issues to men, who usually vote in class rather than sex lines.

«a collapse in the Tory vote among the older/retired base.»

But largely not a switch to New Labour (and a modest one to the LibDem), but a switch to abstention, after 2 years of relentless campaigning by the right-wing press against the COnservative leaders. The typical tory voters as a consequence is not supporting the Conservative that much because they have "bad people", but have no reason to switch their vote, they can just abstain (or less often switch LibDem) as a protest.

However, even without a property price crash, abstention (or switching LibDem) might still deliver the election to New Labour as in 2001 and 2005.

«Wish I shared your confidence on a Labour victory. The Tory Central Office attack team seem to be working very closely with the right wing press to co-ordinate propaganda and so solidify and amplify support.»

Indedd, let's remember two interesting elections:

* In the EU elections 2019 the Conservatives came third (or fourth) as a combination of abstentions and switching to UKIP and LibDems. But they still had got a landslide in 2017 and later on in 2019 itself.

* In 2017 Labour after 2 years of constant press attacks was not very popular, but once the electoral campaign started and the right-wing press had to stop overt attacks, there was a surge in Labour votes, leading to a 1997-level landslide of that was only defeated by a slightly larger 1992-style Conservative landslide.

Given this, if the right-wing press stop attacking the Conservative leadership, and start supporting it, in the absence of a significant property crash, and with inflation presumably going back to 2-4% by the end of 2024, the tory voters might after all decide to take no risks and keep voting Conservative.

Anonymous said...

«Men generally under-estimate the importance of women's right [sic] to women.»

Men also seem to be pretty bad at guessing what women actually think about women's rights issues.

For example, there's a women's DV shelter near where I live. It has a great big LGBTQIA Pride flag hung in the main stairwell window.

But of course, this is a "Metropolitan Woke" area. I'm sure that the women's DV shelters in ex-pit towns across The North must all have Union Jacks hung in the equivalent location.

Ken said...

“Jenkies” what? who?

Anonymous said...

Sounds like you're just offering Starmer yet more excuses for capitulating to the right. Also, you're deliberately being reductive about 'sex based rights'; polling is extremely close on this, and often comes out with people supporting trans rights, so it's absolutely pitiful for Starmer and co not to support the trans community.