Breezing to Victory

It was an easy win. In line with everyone who ventured a prediction, at the West Lancashire by-election Labour romped home with 62% - up over 10 points on the general election. The Tories carried on having a bad time as they dropped 10 points to 25%, and no one else managed to save their deposit.

Does the result suggest much about British politics? Only what even the dogs in the streets know. The Tories are getting hammered thanks to what one ex-Prime Minister did and what the current one carries on doing. Labour are the obvious alternative government and, in most cases, the best bet for registering a protest. It also shows that, for the moment, the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Reform UK are also rans. Circumstance can and do arise where the first can be the beneficiary of tactical voting for Westminster elections, and for local council by-elections the Greens are benefiting too. Reform UK, however, are nowhere - despite coming third here with fewer than a thousand votes.

In the near future, it appears the conditions are ripening for the Lib Dems and Greens to have a happy time. For Reform, less so. With the Tories a spent force marking time before the inevitable defeat, a mix of ruinous economics and a significant misreading of the public appetite for culture war rubbish means they retain the core right wing vote. Those dribbling away to Reform can only be hardcore Brexit fanatics and those who can't bring themselves to support Rishi Sunak for straightforwardly racist reasons. This is not going to improve once the Tories are out of office. Indeed, once in opposition Reform is likely to go the way of UKIP, the space for them smothered by the battered carcass of the defeated Conservative Party.

An entirely inconsequential by-election then. Some, however, will pretend that the numbers behind the easy Labour victory actually means it's a catastrophic failure for Keir Starmer. Look at the turnout. It's down nearly 41 points on the general election. We've talked about this before. Turnouts for by-elections are typically depressed because they're elections that, effectively speaking, don't matter. By-election ballots cast dip even further when the contest is a foregone conclusion, and especially so in a safe seat. There is little enthusiasm for the Labour leader and his shadow cabinet of empty suits, but when the polls are where they are and the mood of the country is anti-Tory, that doesn't matter to him or Labour's chances very much. It's not a gotcha. The lack of popular support becomes significant later when Starmer tries implementing his programme, and particularly those parts of it that go after our people.

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