Tory Fissures Are Opening Up

And so the Tory leadership contest is reduced to eight. Sajid Javid and the might of Rehman Chishti couldn't get the 20 MPs needed to make the first round of the vote, so they're out. Earlier on Tuesday Grant Shapps abandoned the field and pledged fealty to Rish! Sunak, while Priti Patel declared her non-entity's non-entrance into the contest, reasoning she's better off trying to get a job with one of the other candidates. The eight left then are Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, Tom Tugendhat, Nadhim Zahawi, Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, and Liz Truss. You might say the first five are what passes for something just about recognisable as the centre right, while the remaining tweesome threesome are, to use the scientific term, batshit. But even then the "sensibles" are hopelessly compromised. Despite pushing a socially liberal image during her 12 years in parliament, Penny Mordaunt went hard on trans women straight out the gate. Jeremy Hunt, as we know, has saddled himself with Esther McVey to provide some right wing and "working class" creds. And Tugendhat is on the record for wanting to expel all Russians from the UK over Putin's invasion of Ukraine. All terribly normal people.

Apart from refusing to confront real problems and concerns, what else have we learned from the contest during its opening stage? Let's begin with Badenhoch and how she's been received by the Tory faithful. On Politics Live Tuesday lunch time, she was heralded as a "disruptor". Heaven knows why when her unoriginal anti-woke positioning is indistinguishable from everyone else's. Though a moment of levity (lavatory?) was provided when her campaign team fixed 'men' and 'ladies' onto unisex loos, ensuring her launch was overshadowed by a pair of toilets. I' sure there's a joke in there somewhere. Still, there is something off by how Badenoch is covered and spoke about by the right and centrist press. She was elected in 2017 and has held junior briefs since 2019. Tugendhat was elected two years earlier and has held no ministerial post. Braverman was elected in 2017, got her first junior job a year later and before she had time to breathe was promoted by Johnson to Attorney General in 2020. She is several months young than Badenoch. Yet why do the paid for commentators and rumour peddlers, repeated aloud on television and in the press, talk about Badenoch's "inexperience" and question whether it's too early for her? Just a thought.

Meanwhile, over in Camp Woke, or Sunak's campaign as it's known to the rest of the world, there are whispers of shenanigans. As the frontrunner, Sunak has bagged many more endorsements than he needs, meaning his campaign team can get a bit strategic. During Johnson's run three years ago, it is widely acknowledged that Gavin Williamson used surplus votes from Johnson's lead to manipulate the process and engineer who his final opponent was to be. This was done by ensuring supporters voted for certain candidates to knock out the more dangerous opponents. It was felt Hunt was the best opposition to put in front of the membership because he was ill-remembered for his time with the NHS, is incredibly wooden and sits like he's propped up by a broom, and was fairly vocally remain during the referendum campaign. The suggestion is abroad that the same game is afoot, with Hunt the preferred opponent for Rish! to go to the members with and Williamson organising the operation. For Sunak, his most serious opponents are Mordaunt and Tugendhat, and Truss if the batshits rally round her candidacy, which is why he absolutely does not want to face them. Hunt is known and easily beatable, and so we can expect Sunak supporters voting for Hunt up until he's either knocked out, or makes the cut.

But this brings up a possibly significant problem. If Williamson's schemes work or not, it does look like that last two are going to be Sunak and some other candidate from the party's more moderate wing - a term we should use advisedly when discussing contemporary Tory politics. The right with their culture war BS and other peculiar obsessions are in danger of getting locked out. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries mustered enough competency today to declare for Truss, the candidate most closely aligned with their beliefs. And, one assumes, the candidate most likely to keep them in their jobs. Similarly, don't be too surprised if Patel declares for one of the "centrist" candidates. However, if the right are kept out through vote engineering and their priorities aren't reflected in Johnson's successor, the possibility for backbench mischief and disunity increases. Sunak, if he wins, is politically flat footed and not terribly savvy, which can only exacerbate discontent. Furthermore, around 65 MPs remained loyal to the last to Johnson and they're not particularly happy about the manner of Sunak's resignation. The sort of combustible material that blazing rows are made of.

And there we are after the first day. The battle lines are drawn, the frontrunners are clear to see, and the fissures of future divisions are opening up. Strap yourselves in. The ride is only going to get bumpier.

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