The Shite Before Christmas

The Tory press called it an early present for the UK, while in his presser Keir Starmer said the new Brexit deal was "thin". Truth be told, it should be known as the shite before Christmas. Boris Johnson might have a barrel full of fish under one arm and a 2,000 page document in the other, but this is truly a terrible deal compared to the status quo and one much worse than might otherwise have been the case. Like, say, if Labour were in government or sundry remain MPs in the indicative vote process had voted for a closer relationship with the EU instead of their second referendum fantasy. Let's not dwell on the past, though, and unwrap the rancid-smelling gift the Prime Minister has left under the tree.

For an economy weakened by austerity, ravaged by Coronavirus, and heavily dependent on services (comprising some 80% of UK economic activity), the new deal makes it more difficult to sell them into the European Union. There will be delays to British exports into the single market as goods become subject to origins checks. There is the added paperwork, and the logistical nightmare of digesting the new rules and complying before the new year - a recipe for more waiting. And at the end of it, for what benefit? So Tory ministers can jet around the world signing bilateral trade deals replicating existing EU trading terms, and the government gets to exercise their "sovereignty" without the staying hand of the European Court. Except, they don't. For all the guff about standards and regulatory divergence, the UK must abide by and match EU standards if it wants to carry on selling stuff. Which, as Johnson helpfully reminded us, amounts to £650bn/year. Likewise, continuity in the security relationship between the UK and EU is premised upon the Tories' continued commitment to the European Convention on Human Rights. Infringe this and the UK are kept at greater arm's length.

With this trade deal negotiated in record time there are bound to be some howlers and frights awaiting in its pages, and these are going to stoke the political fires well into the new year. Indeed, the Commons ratification of the treaty on 30th December might be fun even if proceedings are entirely by Zoom. And this is what matters; the politics. For Johnson this is the promise fulfilled. It doesn't matter how bad the deal is, he can guarantee the rightwing chatterers and broadcasting's client hacks will talk up the achievement and faithfully relay his lines when things go awry, or those nasties emerge from the deal's text. This is the deal he secured in the face of opposition from within parliament, opposition from within business, and has kept the faith all the way through the pandemic. The 2019 Tory manifesto didn't promise much because this was the centrepiece. Johnson has delivered Brexit, despite the grifting whingeing of Nigel Farage. For a man who compulsively lies, for millions of voters who supported the Tories a year ago he has kept his word.

Now the immediate issue is whether the deal clears the Commons, which is virtually certain. Labour aren't about to oppose it, as confirmed by Keir Starmer this evening, and nor are the European Research Group and their allies. Interviews with the likes of Andrew Bridgen and Craig Mackinlay finds them coy about the "devil in the detail", and well-known stroppy bod Steve Baker has spent the evening sanguinely tweeting the Tory party's self-congratulations. They might prefer a no deal because of the interests at stake, but allowing Johnson his moment now and not being seen to jeopardise the Brexit "project" trumps any rebellion in the Commons next week. Besides, what is done can be undone in the fullness of time.

How about the Tory vote itself, and those Johnson flattered and patronised a year back for their conditional Brexit votes? Will the deal finally break the polling logjam and start the slow bleed back of Tory supporters to Labour. Is politics going to return to "normal"? No one can say with certainty, but as predicting the outcome of social relationships is a probabilistic game, I'm going to suggest the answer is ... nyet. The remainers can bang on about what has been lost, but thanks to the pandemic the Tory base aren't fussed by the disappearance of free movement into the EU, they're not going to be bothered about the job losses or wage freezes because it mostly does not affect them, and where goods are held up it will be a minor inconvenience. So what if they can't get Spanish strawberries in the middle of Winter? As far as they're concerned nothing changes and they will feel vindicated in their decision. Perhaps a Labour strategy based on economic radicalism could reach some who switched in 2019, but remember, Brexit is a symptom of the polarisation in British society as a whole. Or, to be more precise, helped catalyse the manifestation of two poles in politics. As long as this persists, it's hard to see significant numbers of Tory voters folding over into the Labour camp. Cue pundits scratching their heads wondering why Keir Starmer's patriotism offensive etc. stubbornly refuses to work.

Johnson might be secure for now, but here's the other problem. Brexit isn't done. It will never be done. The details, difficulties, and damages inflicted by the deal might fade into the background and become one for the geeks in the same way the EU was before Dave recklessly gambled and lost, but we've seen how a fringe issue can blow up into popular consciousness. There is a grievance narrative ready to be composed by the likes of Farage and the Brexiteers looking to carve out a long-term position for themselves, and there are opportunities too for continuity remain around the fringes. The problem, as the last 10 years have taught us, is how these niche issues can become mobilising issues if the media run with them. And so this Christmas we are waving goodbye to five years worth of fraught and frustrating politics, but the wind about the door and the chill in the air carries one thing: the ghost of Brexit consequences to come.