Friday, 1 September 2017

Local Council By-Elections August 2017
























This month saw 15,324 votes cast over 12 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Five council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with July's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
July
+/- Aug 16
Average/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
           12
 5,893
  38.5%
 +5.8%
      +9.7%
    491
     0
Labour
           12
 6,275
  40.9%
 +3.4%
    +11.0%
    523
   +3
LibDem
           10
 2,000
  13.1%
  -2.6%
      +4.4%
    200
     0
UKIP
            6
   467
    3.0%
 +2.2%
       -7.3%
     79
    -2
Green
            7
   365
    2.9%
 +1.7%
      +0.7%
     52
     0
SNP
            0
  
   
     
   
     0
PC**
            0
 
   
      
   
     0
Ind***
            8
   287
    1.9%
 -5.9%
       -3.5%
     36
     0
Other****
            1
    37
    0.2%
 -0.1%
       -5.0%
     37
    -1

* There were no by-elections in Scotland this month
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There was a single independent clash
**** Others this month consisted solely of the Yorkshire Party (37 votes)

Another very interesting month. Clearly the polarisation that is getting picked up by the national polls is finding its way down to the local level, although the LibDem vote is proving more resilient here than in survey findings. What the results hide (because I don't go down to ward-level analysis) is a surge in Labour support in seats where it previously came third or worse, and a number of people have noticed something of a seaside effect. The party's biggest swings have been in these places.

The Tory vote is still holding up as expected. We'll see if that remains the case as the Brexit shambles ambles on. As for the others, the LibDem surge from last year has well and truly been put to bed. They still need to decide which way to pivot - are they going all out against Labour as it enjoys a resurgence or against a weakened and declining Tory party. There are some tasty right-leaning centre right morsels to be had ... For UKIP and the Greens it's doldrums city for the time being.

1 comment:

jim mclean said...

September looking good for Scottish Labour, even leaderless and rudderless SNP vote seems to be hemorrhaging as Labour gain council seats in YES voting areas. The continuing attack on NO voters as Unionists seems to be back firing as well and now people on the right using the term as a vote winner.
Lab gain from tory
The results by party in Fortissat were:
Labour - 1,420
Unionist Party - 858
SNP - 761
Conservative - 424
Independent - 184
Green - 24
UKIP - 18