The Far Left and the 2024 General Election

In this country, electoral politics is the graveyard of left wing aspirations. But that has never stopped the far left - defined here as a movement of groups, parties, and/or alliances that lays claim to Marxist, communist, class conscious, and/or socialist labels - from fielding its own candidates. Now that nominations for seats closed on Friday 7th June, by my reckoning there are 242 candidates standing under an unambiguously left wing party label. There are also 59 more left wing independents, of which more shortly.

How does the scale of the far left challenge match up to previous years? Very few candidates stood in 2017 and 2019 because most of the left had seized the opportunity Corbynism presented and were plugging away in the Labour Party. At the last election just 17 candidates from seven organisations stood, a small total exacerbated by the particular character of that election. This was slightly down on the unexpected contest of two years previous. You would have to go to 2015 for a proper assessment of the far left's strength and, yes, more people are standing now than nine years ago. Then the different parties and alliances of the extra-Labour left fielded 215 candidates, with 131 of them coming from the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition. That was higher than the Socialist Alliance at its height and better than the official Communist Party's peak of 100 candidates at the 1950 general election.

Fast forward to 2024 and George Galloway's Workers' Party have surpassed the record set by TUSC. Going by my online tour of the country's constituencies, the electorate in 152 constituencies will have the WP option. In contrast TUSC, the electoral vehicle that doesn't take elections seriously, was able to rustle up 40 candidancies. This is way down on 2015 and is even beaten by their 2010 debut, where they stood in 42 seats.

Other sizeable interventions, at least by the minnowed standards of the British far left, are offered by the Communist Party of Britain and the Socialist Labour Party. The CPB, benefiting from a rejuvenation of the Young Communist League, has managed a roster of 14 candidates. This almost doubles the numbers standing in 2015 and 2010. No such infusion of fresh blood has flowed into the SLP, which doesn't seem to exist between elections (though, to be fair, the SLP East Midlands banner was at Saturday's Silk Mill march/festival in Derby, and apparently I'm the spitting image of one of their lesser spotted comrades). Its 12 candidates this time beats 2015's eight, but pales against 2010's 24. Then you have the usual smattering of smaller groups who habitually stand in elections. The weirdest campaign has to be that offered by the Socialist Equality Party who've decided to centralise their scarce resources by launching two challenges at the opposite ends of this island.

242 candidates means this is the largest far left election challenge ever. But is even more so if you add in the 59 independents. There are definitional issues about whether these could be classed as left-of-Labour challenges. On the one hand, the answer is obviously a yes. Considering the hightest profile of these, such as Jeremy Corbyn, Faiza Shaheen, Andrew Feinstein, and Leanne Mohamad, these are politically and rhetorically to Labour's left. But from the point of view of measuring the electoral strength of the far left over time, they're problematic. As independents, such candidacies draw on different dynamics. For example, thinking back to Ken Livingstone's victorious London mayoral candidacy in 2000, no one suggested at the time that left challengers to New Labour were on the cusp of great things. A point reinforced by the very modest votes won by the London Socialist Alliance in the contemporaneous assembly elections.

Talking of definitional issues, some readers would query the acceptance of the Workers' Party as a far left organisation. Dodgy candidates, including not a few who throw around antisemitic and conspiracy theories like they're confetti, and the party's sociological base reminds one more of Reform than socialist organisations that are routinely critiqued - like the Socialist Workers' Party - for being middle class. Despite this, there are three reasons for including them here. Galloway has positioned the WP as a left organisation, and one that subscribes to an anti-imperialism that goes well beyond the bounds of mainstream politics. The second is its policy platform. The pledges outlined on its website are similar demands to what you might read at the end of a dreary Trotskyist weekly. The anti-woke posturing the party has grown notorious for is downplayed. And, thirdly, as far as the ordinary punter is concerned arguments about the WP's composition don't come into the equation. With Reform and the Tories scrapping in the sewer, voters motivated by racism and spite have more attractive options than a party defining itself in soldiarity with victimised ethnic minorities. You don't have to like them, but for my money the WP is within the scope of what the 'far left' is.

One last point, can we talk about sectarianism? With 650 seats up for grabs, there are plenty enough to go round. But no. Leaving aside clashes between left independents and left organisations, which swim in slightly different streams anyway, there are - give or take a few - 34 clashes among our 242 candidates. There are even a couple of seats where three left baldies are fighting over the same comb. This inability to avoid clashes is partly down to obstinance, with the SLP, Workers' Revolutionary Party, and Socialist Party of Great Britain being the biggest offenders. All for their very worthy reasons. But one cannnot discount amateurism as well. Since Rishi Sunak came to office, the parties should have determined which seats they were targeting and focused their work accordingly knowing an election wasn't far off. The failure to do so isn't just intra-left clashes, but Galloway's Workers' Party partly filling the vacuum and the much-larger-than-usual clutch of left independents doing their own thing. For those of the Leninist persuasion, the party is supposed to be the memory of the class. How far they are from this ideal can be measured by their inability to learn from past election campaigns.

Predictions are almost as foolish as standing in an election with a party name no one identifies with, but I'm going to venture some forecasts about the performance of the candidates below. Jeremy Corbyn will be re-elected as an independent, and will continue to haunt the brains of the Labour right despite the inevitability of their crushing electoral victory. I also think Galloway is in with a very good chance of retaining Rochdale. With the Labour vote already fraying, though not enough to forestall this election's outcome, and the depravity of Israel undimmed as the establishment continues to minimise and excuse its crimes, Galloway is in with a shout. As for the rest? People Before Profit across the Irish Sea are expected to get quite decent votes off the back of consistent work. Elsewhere a smattering of left independents will save their deposits though none will win, and by and large the party label candidates will do poorly, with a typical range of between 0.5 and 1.5%. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news to those for whom this will come as a hammer blow.

Below are listed all the candidacies I'm aware of. If there are any missing, please drop a comment. Please note where a candidacy is underlined, that means it is clashing with another.

Alliance for Green Socialism
Leeds North East - Mike Davies
Lewisham North - John Lloyd

Communist Future
Manchester Central - Caitriona Rylance

Communist League
Manchester Rusholme - Peter Clifford
Tottenham - Pamela Holmes

Communist Party of Britain
Blaenau Gwent - Robert Griffiths
Bury South - Dan Ross
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket - Darren Turner
Coatbridge and Bellshill - Drew Gilchrist
Edinburgh North and Leith - Richard Shilcock
Glasgow North East - Gary Steele
Hastings and Rye - Nicholas Davies
Ipswich - Freddie Sofar
Leicester South - Ann Green
Lewisham North - Oliver Snelling
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare - Bob Davenport
Newcastle East and Wallsend - Emma-Jane Phillips
South West Norfolk - Lorraine Douglas
Taunton and Wellington - Rochelle Russell

Left Independents
Aberdeen South - Sophie Molly
Banbury - Cassie Bellingham
Bethnal Green and Stepney - Ajmal Masroor
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - Ellie Merton
Birmingham Edgbaston - Ammar Waraich
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley - Mohammad Hafeez
Birmingham Ladywood - Akhmed Yakoob
Birmingham Selly Oak - Kamel Hawwash
Brentford and Isleworth - Zebunisa Rao
Bristol East - Wael Arafat
Cardiff West - John Urquhart
Central Devon - Arthur Price
Chingford and Woodford Green - Faiza Shaheen
Dudley - Shakeela Bibi
East Ham - Tahir Mirza
Eltham and Chislehurst - John Courtneidge
Enfield North - Ertan Karpazli
Feltham and Heston - Damian Read
Frome and East Somerset - Gareth Heathcote
Grantham and Bourne - Charmaine Morgan
Harrow West - Pamela Fitzpatrick
Heywood and Middleton North - Chris Furlong
Holborn St Pancras - Andrew Feinstein
Hove and Portslade - Tanushka Marah
Ilford North - Leanne Mohamad
Ilford South - Syed Siddiqi
Islington North - Jeremy Corbyn
Kensington and Bayswater - Emma Dent Coad
Kingston and Surbiton - Yvonne Tracey
Leicester East - Claudia Webbe
Leicester South - Shockat Adam
Leyton and Wanstead - Shanell Johnson
Liverpool Garston - Sam Gorst
Liverpool Wavertree - Anne San
Mid Cheshire - Helen Clawson
Monmouthshire - Owen Lewis
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West - Yvonne Ridley
Newport East - Pippa Bartolotti
Oxford East - Jabu Nala-Hartley
Preston - Michael Lavalette
Reading West and Mod Berkshire - Adrian Abbs
Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Maxine Bowler
Sittingbourne and Sheppey - Mike Baldock
South Dorset - Giovanna Lewis
Southgate and Wood Green - Karl Vidol
Southport - Sean Halsall
Stockport - Asley Walker
Stockton West - Monty Brack
Stoke-on-Trent Central - Andy Polshaw
Stratford and Bow - Fiona Lali
Stratford and Bow - Steve Headley
Tottenham - Nandita Lal
Tunbridge Wells - Hassan Kassem
Walsall and Bloxwich - Aftab Nawaz
Wells and Mendip Hills - Abi McGuire
West Suffolk - Katie Parker
West Ham and Beckton - Sophia Naqvi
Wigan - Jan Cunliffe
Windsor - David Buckley
Wycombe - Ajaz Rehman

People Before Profit
Belfast North - Fiona Ferguson
Belfast West - Gerry Carroll
Foyle - Shaun Harkin

Scottish Socialist Party
Glasgow East - Liam McLaughlan
Rutherglen - Bill Bonnar

Socialist Equality Party
Holborn and St Pancras - Tom Scripps
Inverness, Skye, and West Rossshire - Darren Paxton

Socialist Labour Party
Bangor Aberconwy - Katherine Jones
Barnsley South - Terry Robinson
Birmingham Perry Bar - Shangara Singh
Camborne and Redruth - Robert Hawkins
Central Ayrhsire - Lois McDaid
Edinburgh North and Leith - David Jacobsen
Forest of Dean - Saiham Sikder
Gloucester - Akhlaque Ahmed
Mansfield - Peter Dean
North Ayrshire and Arran - James McDaid
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Robert Hawkins
South Derbyshire - Paul Liversuch

Social Justice Party
Scarborough and Whitby - Asa Jones

Socialist Party of Great Britain
Clapham and Brixton Hill - Bill Martin
Folkestone and Hythe - Andy Thomas

Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Aberdeen North - Lucas Grant
Birmingham Erdington - Corinthia Ward
Bristol North East - Dan Smart
Cardiff East - John Williams
Chorley - Martin Powell-Davies
Coventry East - Dave Nellist
Crawley - Robin Burnham
Croydon West - April Ashley
Doncaster North - Andy Hiles
Dundee Central - Jim McFarlane
Folkestone and Hythe - Momtaz Khanom
Gateshead Central and Whickham - Norman Hall
Glasgow North East - Chris Sermanni
Glasgow South - Brian Smith
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes - Mark Gee
Ilford South - Andy Walker
Islington South and Finsbury - Ethan Saunders
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham - Michael Whale
Leeds Central and Headingley - Louie Fulton
Leicester West - Steve Score
Liverpool Riverside - Roger Bannister
Mansfield - Karen Seymour
Northampton South - Katie Simpson
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Alex Moore
Reading Central - Adam Gillman
Rutherglen - Chris Sermanni
Sheffield Central - Isabelle France
Sheffield Heeley - Mick Suter
Smethwick - Ravaldeep Bath
South West Devon - Ben Davy
Southampton Itchen - Decland Clune
Southampton Test - Maggie Fricker
Southgate and Wood Green - Karl Vidol
Swansea West - Gareth Bromhall
Swindon North - Scott Hunter
Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Gary Harbord
Walthamstow - Nancy Taaffe
West Ham and Beckton - Lois Austin
Worcester - Mark Davies
Worsley and Eccles - Sally Griffiths

Transform
Bishop Auckland - Rachel Maughan
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor - Brian Agar

Workers' Party GB
Alloa and Grangemouth - Tom Flanagan
Altrincham and Sale West - Amir Burney
Ashton-under-Lyne – Aroma Hassan
Aylesbury – Jan Gajdos
Barking – Hamid Shah
Bath - Matthew Alford
Battersea - Hazel James
Bedford - Prince Sadiq Chaudhury
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North - James Giles
Birmingham Yardley - Jody McIntyre
Blackburn - Craig Murray
Blaenau Gwent - Choudhry Yasir Iqbal
Bolton North East - Syeda Misbah Kazmi
Bolton South and Walkden - Jack Khan
Bootle - Ian Smith
Bradford South – Harry Boota
Brent East - James Mutimer
Brent West – Nadia Klok
Brentford and Isleworth – Nisar Malik
Bridgwater - Gregory Tanner
Bromsgrove - Aheesha Zahir
Broxtowe - Maqsood Syed
Burnley - Tass Hussain
Burton and Uttoxeter - Azmat Mir
Bury North - Shafat Ali
Bury South - Sameera Ashraf
Caerfyrddin - David Evans
Cambridge - Khalid Abu-Tayyem
Carshalton and Wallington - Atif Rashid
Ceredigion Preseli - Taghrid Al-Mawed
Chatham and Aylesford - Matt Valentine
Cheadle - Tanya Manzoor
Chelmsford - Mark Kenlen
Chelsea and Fulham - Sabi Patwary
Chesham and Amersham - Muhammad Pervez Khan
Chesterfield - Julie Lowe
Cities of London and Westminster - Hoz Shafiei
Coventry East - Paul Bedson
Coventry South - Mohammed Ali Syed
Crawley - Linda Bamieh
Crewe and Nantwich - Phillip Lane
Croydon South - Kulsum Hussin
Croydon West - Ahsan Ullah
Derby South - Chris Williamson
Doncaster Central - Tosh McDonald
Dover and Deal - Colin Tasker
Dudley - Aftab Hussein
Dundee Central - Raymond Mennie
Ealing Central and Acton - Nada Jarche
Ealing North – Sam Habeeb
Ealing Southall - Darsham Singh Azad
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill - Denise Headley
Eltham and Chislehurst - Sean Stewart
Enfield North - Aishat Anifowoshe
Erith and Thamesmead - Mohammed Abu Shahed
Feltham and Heston – Amrit Mann
Gloucester - Steve Gower
Gorton and Denton - Amir Burney
Greenwich and Woolwich - Sheikh Raquib
Hackney South and Shoreditch - Mohammed Hussain
Halifax - Shakir Saghir
Hammersmith and Chiswick - Raj Gill
Harrow East - Sarajulhaq Parwani
Hartlepool - Thomas Dudley
Hastings and Rye - Philip Colley
Havant - Jennifer Alemanno
Hayes and Harlington - Rizwana Karim
Hendon - Imtiaz Palekar
Hornsey and Friern Barnet – Dino Philippos
Ilford North - Shabaz Hussain
Ilford South - Golam Tipu
Kingston and Surbiton - Ali Abdulla
Knowsley - Graham Padden
Leeds Central and Headingley - Owais Rajput
Leeds North East - Dawud Islam
Leeds South - Muhammad Azeem
Leeds West and Pudsey - Jamel El Kheir
Lewisham East - Steph Koffi
Lewisham North - Mian Akbar
Lewisham West and East Dulwich – Gwenton Sloley
Leyton and Wanstead - Mahtab Aziz
Lincoln - Linda Richardson
Luton North - Waheed Akbar
Luton South and South Bedfordshire - Yasin Rehman
Manchester Central - Parham Hashemi
Manchester Rusholme - Mohhamed Bilal
Manchester Withington - Elizabeth Greenwood
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare – Anthony Cole
Mid Derbyshire - Josiah Uche
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East - Mehmoona Ameen
Mitcham and Morden – Mehmood Jamshed
Newark - Collan Siddique
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend - Muhammed Ghori
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor - Minhajul Suhon
North Durham - Chris Bradburn
North East Cambridgeshire - Clayton Payne
North Somerset - Suneil Basu
Northampton North - Khalid Razzaq
Nottingham East - Issan Ghazni
Nottingham South - Paras Ghazni
Nuneaton - John Homer
Oldham East and Saddleworth - Shanaz Saddique
Oxford East - Zaid Marham
Pendle and Clitheroe - Syed Hashmi
Peterborough - Amjad Hussain
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Guy Haywood
Poplar and Limehouse - Kamran Khan
Putney - Heiko Khoo
Queen's Park and Maida Vale - Irakli Menabde
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough - Robert Watson
Redditch - Mohammed Amin
Richmond and Northallerton - Louise Dickens
Rochdale - George Galloway
Rochester and Strood - John Innes
Romford - Zhafaran Qayum
Rossendale and Darwen - Tayab Ali
Rotherham - Taukir Iqbal
Salford - Mustafa Abdullah
Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough - Mark Tyler
Sheffield Central - Caitlin Hardy
Sheffield Hallam - Mohammed Moui-Tabrizy
Sheffield Heeley - Steven Roy
Sheffield South East - Muzafar Rahman
Shipley - Waqas Khan
Slough - Adnan Shabbir
Smethwick - Nahim Rubani
South Northamptonshire – Mick Stott
Southampton Test - Wajahat Shaukrat
Southgate and Wood Green - Geoff Moseley
Stalybridge and Hyde - Audel Shirin
Stockport - Ayesha Khan
Stourbridge - Mohammed Ramzan
Stratford and Bow – Halima Khan
Streatham and Croydon North - Wasseem Sherwani
Stretford and Urmston - Khalila Choudhury
Sutton Coldfield - Wajad Burkey
Tamworth - Adam Goodfellow
Thurrock - Yousaff Khan
Tooting - Tarik Hussain
Torbay – Paul Moor
Tottenham - Jennifer Obaseki
Twickenham - Umair Malik
Wakefield and Rothwell - Keith Mason
Wallasey - Philip Bimpson
Walthamstow - Imran Arshad
Watford - Khalid Chohan
Widnes and Halewood - Michael Murphy
Wimbledon - Aaron Mafi
Windsor - Simran Dhillon
Wolverhampton South East - Athar Warraich
Wolverhampton West - Vikas Chopra
Worsley and Eccles - Nasri Barghouti
Wycombe - Khalil Ahmed
Wythenshawe and Sale East - John Barstow

Workers Revolutionary Party
Hackney South and Shoreditch - Carol Small
Hammersmith and Chiswick - Scott Dore
Liverpool Garston - Frank Swinney
Oxford East - Brandon French
Peckham - Mariatu Kargbo

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Sunak's D-Day Clanger

Rishi Sunak's spectacular mishandling of the D-Day commemorations have been nothing less than catastrophic for the Tories. What has happened owes less to the successful unfolding of Operation Overlord on the beaches 80 years ago. Instead it reminds one of Operation Dynamo, the hasty, chaotic evacuation of British, Belgian, and French troops from Dunkirk four years previously. Except that salvaged a huge allied army from the jaws of defeat. For Sunak, his mistake - easily the equal of Boris Johnson's party gate or Liz Truss tanking the economy - will not have any upside for the beleaguered forces of the Conservative Party. It does instead make their coming defeat all the more total and final.

The popular legitimacy of the British state has declined in recent years, exemplified by the relatively muted popular reaction to the death of the Queen and King Charles's coronation. But the Second World War and the role Britain played in the defeat of the Nazis remains a source of pride and nostalgia, particularly for the post-war generation who grew up in its shadow. They learned about the hardships and tragedies straight from their parents. Most families have relatives that served in the war and, in a lot of cases, that has become part of the background of who they are. Even if people don't know the ins and outs of the major battles. They appreciate and respect what millions went through, and feel gratitude for the hundreds of thousands of Britons who were killed at home and overseas.

By ducking out of the commemorations early, ostensibly to record an interview with ITV News to deny allegations of lying during Tuesday night's leaders' debate is a double thumbing of the nose to official ritual and the sacrifices made by those who did not come home. If this was not the middle of the election, in terms of the mores and propriety of bourgeois politics it would be a resigning matter. Especially so now it has emerged that Sunak had to be persuaded by Emmanuel Macron to attend in the first place.

What the hell has happened? For Nigel Farage, Sunak "doesn't care about our culture" (nudge, nudge, wink, wink). This dog whistling doesn't wash. Rather, Sunak's clanger has its roots in his class politics. For one, this place was talking about his lack of nous before it was fashionable. It might be that Sunak is a singly incompetent guy, but this is inseparable from his political programme. Which, baldly put, is to offer absolutely nothing. It was evident from his first day in office, and since then all of his policies have been punitive culture war rubbish. This is about trying to manage people's expectations by offering nothing, so they in turn won't make future demands on the state. Pulling off the class politics of not doing anything requires skill, and that's something Sunak obviously lacks.

This is compounded by what is becoming the worst Tory election campaign ever. Even worse than Theresa May's 2017 debacle which, you'll remember, still managed to get her over the line as the largest party. Sunak's challenge - to keep together a rump from which some sort of recovery might be staged - was rendered almost impossible by Farage's return. And so, he's done what so many of his boss class fellows rail against: he's quietly quit. This checking out is evident from the half-arsed round of apology interviews. With him looking under threat in his own nominally super safe seat, who can blame him if his vista is filled not by the Downing Street dining table but a golden horizon of silhouetted palm trees and sun kissed beaches? Life as a moneybags venture capitalist hanging out in Silicon Valley must seem so much simpler and alluring than the dross of British politics.

It's all over. All Labour need do is sit back, and perhaps have a bit of fun speculating what terrible blunder Sunak will commit next.

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Paradisio - Bailando

For most visitors to this blog, the words 'eurodance' and 'masterpiece' seldom, if ever go together. But as I have a blog post cooking tonight, here is some absolute monster filler that never bothered the charts in this country. Our bad, I guess.

Who Won the ITV Leaders' Debate?

Can the news get any worse for the Conservatives? Before ITV's Leaders' Debate, Survation dropped its first big MRP of this campaign. Field work took place between the day the election was called, and it puts voter intention on 43% Labour and 24% for the Tories. By the standards of recent polling by sundry firms, not too catastrophic. Until you look at the seat-by-seat projections. Labour surges to 487 seats with the Tories trailing on 71. And remember, polling was done before Nigel Farage announced his comeback. Those Tory numbers could get even worse.

For Rishi Sunak, the situation could not be more desperate. He needed a good night facing off against Keir Starmer in the hope of salvaging a viable core post-election. But as this and other MRPs show, Sunak himself can't not pay to ignore his formerly super safe constituency, which is set on becoming a marginal. Sunak then needed to be less the Prime Minister's Questions point scorer, and certainly not repeat his arrogant tones of a couple of years back during the televised Tory leadership debates. He needed to strike the statesman pose, which was certainly going to be the ground on which Starmer pitched his tent.

And as for the Labour leader, this is his election to lose. And that has been the case since Liz Truss entered Number 10. Yet even he and his team know that disgust with the Tories are driving polling numbers, they want to turn that into an enthusiasm for Starmer that has long been lacking. For most people, up until now he has been a grey blur so for many this would be their first serious look at how Starmer comes across. What he had to do was make sure he didn't lose his cool, fluff his lines, and come over worse than the Prime Minister. How did they do?

It was pretty appalling all told. To be fair to Starmer and Sunak, this wasn't entirely their fault. Keeping the head-to-head to just over an hour and cramming in as many questions as possible meant they were limited to 45 second answers. Completely ridiculous. Like much political commentary, this did nothing to enlighten or, as we used to say in the old organisation, "raise the level". ITV had engineered the debate to produce quick time sound bites. It didn't put either leader in much difficulty because none of the questions stretched them. As such, I doubt anyone would have come away with a changed mind.

The substance of "discussion" was pretty meagre. Sunak did like to talk over Starmer a lot and had more chair's actions aimed at him, but then the format did suit what he was selling. Telling viewers to forget about the last 14 years, we needed to have our eyes fixed on the future. According to the Prime Minister, the economy is doing well, NHS waiting lists are coming down, small boats in the channel are falling. He's protecting households from the costs of the green transition by basically doing bugger all about it, and he's thrown more money at the military. But this was very secondary to his main message. Labour can't be trusted with national security, Labour will flood our streets with asylum seekers, Labour will have a deputy PM that doesn't like nuclear weapons, Labour's going to increase energy bills and force people to buy heat pumps and electric vehicles. But most of all, the one thing Sunak would not shut up about was Labour's alleged plan to hike taxes by £2,000/year. Someone was paying attention during the face-to-faces between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn: repeat one thing again and again and again so it lodges in the mind. In fact, one thing that did surprise is that Sunak didn't go lower. Given he's running a core vote only campaign, I'm surprised he didn't make more of his "quadruple pension lock" - the guarantee that pensioners will not pay tax on their state pension. Because Labour aren't backing his scheme, he ventured that Starmer favoured a "retirement tax". But he only proffered this once, which would be more effective with his desired audience than dodgy claims about a phantom tax bill.

Starmer for his part didn't go in for aloof serious vibes. He went for the Tory record. Showing two can play Sunak's game, the words "Liz Truss" paired with "trashed the economy" were uttered almost as much. Initially it seemed he was knocked off balance by the £2k tax gambit, and only revisited it to rubbish it half-way through the show. Of the two, he certainly offered more. He talked about GB energy, plans to build 1.5 million homes, more teachers, action on NHS waiting lists. He promised leadership on Israel Palestine, saying it would be his "solemn duty" to make a resolution a reality. He didn't say much on the economy even in the dedicated economy question, but his response to the climate question linked it to economic growth and opportunity - which differed from Sunak's rendering it as a cost and an obstacle. Basically, Starmer didn't need to bring much to the table beyond his memorised content of the pledge card, and so didn't.

Audience participation was much more muted than the polarised election of 2019, but both men got cheers and applause. Though Sunak distinguished himself by receiving jeers and mocking laughter over his national insurance scheme. Something Starmer can undoubtedly look forward to when he does the next round of these four/five years down the line.

Going back to what both men were trying to achieve with this, I think both will be pretty pleased. Sunak got his attack lines out and was able to peddle his fear-mongering. He wasn't skewered on the Tories' record, thanks both to the format and his relentless conjuring of the anti-Labour terrors. Starmer wasn't ruffled either. He wasn't provoked, and when Sunak hit below the belt rather than booting back Starmer quickly tried to refute his nonsense. In all then, a score draw. But Sunak needed to smash it and have Starmer deflate like a souffle, not making any headway here means certain catastrophic defeat on 4th July.

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The "Return" of Nigel Farage

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. At a press conference on Monday afternoon Nigel Farage made the "emergency" announcement that he was taking over the leadership of Reform (incorporated as a for-profit private company that he's chief shareholder of) and declaring for the Clacton seat. With the Tories already reeling from a series of polls forecast a range from bad defeat to complete catastrophe, rather than doing a deal and saving the party's bacon (as per 2019) he's going to be in there at the kill. He's relishing the chance to administer one, two, many knife thrusts into the guts of the badly wounded Conservative beast. The Tories' final expiration is not a matter of hype now but a very real possibility.

One doesn't have to like his politics or even like Farage to understand his appeal. He's a million miles away from the dead-eyed briefcases that pass for most mainstream MPs. His "you-can't-say-that" use of right wing talking points appear to come from an authentic place, simply because Reform's owner/leader can speak for as long as he likes coherently, without prompts, and not without humour. It's this peculiar charisma that struck a chord with some men of a certain age, and has beguiled many a journalist. Farage's politics are as reactionary as they are boring. But our Nige most assuredly is not, and it's that kind of star quality that is missing from the Tory line up. And that is a problem. For right wing voters hungering for an authoritarian figure, no-knack Sunak doesn't measure up.

In the questions, Farage gave the impression that Reform weren't likely to win any seats. And he's probably right. Clacton, which is held by the anonymous right winger Giles Watling (who is more famous for playing a character in Carla Lane's Bread over 30 years ago, which says it all) has an enormous cushion of votes under his backside. It's unlikely Farage can overturn such a majority, even with Labour winning over Tory voters with the Lib Dems and the Greens tearing out their share here in there. But the danger comes in those marginal seats which, given the state of the polls, could include any constituency where the Tory incumbent has a majority lower than 15,000 votes. Reform could easily make a difference and tip dozens more seats into Labour and Liberal Democrat gains. What a terrible shame.

How are the Tories meeting the threat of Reform? As it stands, their campaign so far has been entirely about shoring up the core vote. Whether it's peddling national service (which appears to account for losing support, according to the latest survey from JL Partners) or cranking up the fear factor, none of it is shifting the polls in their direction, nor is it warding off Reform's menaces. Now that Farage is in play and can use his standing to win over more Tory voters and lure others out on election day, where does the Conservative campaign go? Sunak has decided there's no place like the gutter, and is banging the ECHR drum again in the hope that the promise to do Brexit for a second time will appeal. You don't need to be terribly astute to realise that it won't.

The problems the Tories have is that to the mind of the Reform-minded voter, Farage's tales of Brexit betrayal ring true. They were promised frictionless trade with Europe, a clampdown on immigration, the spending of monies saved on decaying coastal towns and the country outside of the South East. And, of course, the £350m/week for the NHS. Leave campaigners said the cost of living would come down and, to borrow a recent Tory party phrase, the economy would be going "gang busters" free from the sclerotic weight of a decaying EU. None of this has happened. The reason why is because Brexit was a pie-in-the-sky project that suited the interests of a section of British capital, but no one likes to be taken for a mug. And so there's mileage in Farage's argument that Brexit has been mishandled and the opportunities binned because the Tories are Marxists in hock to leftist ideology, or some such rubbish. Therefore, because the Tories are choosing to fight on this ground they are doomed to lose a bidding war with Farage. The result is a split vote and the kind of election result even I didn't contemplate in my more excitable moments writing the book.

But does Farage's return also pose a threat to Labour? The idiot's scribe Tom Harris thinks so, though his argument is perhaps the most stupid comment I've seen on the election so far. Apparently Labour voters might be tempted because excitement. No, Keir Starmer doesn't have to be worried about opposition coming from the right for a while. But if he plays the immigration bad/anti woke politics game, and there's nothing in his speeches on immigration to say he won't, he's throwing Farage a lifeline that will keep him politically relevant long after the Tories are taken out and he fails to win for the eighth time running. In cultivating scapegoats of Labour's own, he also runs the risk of a war with Reform that Labour cannot win. Especially as it would speed up the disintegration of his own base which, to be honest, isn't in rude health - despite what the polls say.

As for Reform itself, does it have much of a future? Not really. As with UKIP before it, because of the character of its support it has all the declinist features of Tory support in extremis. But it doesn't need longevity. Farage's purpose - openly stated - is to pressure UK politics from the right and swing it toward his brand of authoritarian politics before realities catch up with its obsolescence. If by doing so he's able to hold back the struggle for a green transition, the final victory of socially liberal attitudes, and stymie the ascendency of the new class politics, that means a longer period in the spotlight and more cash for a gilded retirement. Reform, after all, is a business and the purpose of a business is to return a profit to its owner.

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Leaving Labour

On Thursday morning I cancelled my Labour Party membership. It wasn't difficult. Doing the belt and braces thing the monthly direct debit got done first, and the online resignation form was filled out. And that was it. A 14-and-a-half year relationship ended with a few clicks.

I'm not unique, nor am I immune to the political processes I write about. No one stands outside of history after all. The decomposition of Labour's base is real and, just as recent events have accelerated the long-term decline of the Tories, the Labour leadership's support for Israel as it openly commits genocide has increased the rate at which Keir Starmer and his thuggish allies are hollowing out the party. For me at least, the attacks on Diane Abbott and the sacking of Faiza Shaheen and Lloyd Russell-Moyle were the final straw. If you are on the left in Labour, there is only so much shit you can eat and my belly has distended with my fill.

This isn't to say the character of the Labour Party has changed. It remains what it always has been: a fusion of opposites. It is simultaneously a party of selfless sacrifice and careerism, of peace and the enthusiastic advocacy of war, of working class self-help and the prostration before business. Self-confidence and servility runs through Labourism like Blackpool through a stick of rock, but in more recent years, as the internal counter-revolution against the vestiges of Corbynism has gathered steam the party has been remade. Starmer's mantra of "returning the party to service" is returning it to an outright political instrument of British capital. His "country first, party second" mantra is a coded statement to British business that their interests are the priority, and those of labour, which after all Labour is supposed to represent, are relegated to the never never. The right are in the ascendency, and the ability to do something about it within the party is extremely limited.

This is me, I suppose, catching up with my analysis. Years ago we could see Starmer sowing the seeds of his political self-destruction, but I didn't expect them to start germinating so readily. To be able to engage with the process of political recomposition outside of Labour, be it in the street and protest movements, the seeming impetus behind the left independent candidacies, and what's happening with the Greens means, for me at least, that Labour membership is a political encumbrance as well as a moral burden.

What my decision is not is a denunciation of those on the left who've kept their membership and remain variously active in the party. Nothing is gained from rubbish like "you can't be a proper socialist if you're a member of the Labour Party". This black and white approach to politics is common because it's a structural feature of every day life, but is something to be resisted, not embraced. James Schneider in his book Our Bloc, and his recent spot on Politics Theory Other made the obvious and sensible argument that all sections of the left should talk to one another and cohere as much as its able, given competing areas of focus. The left, it is worth remembering, has a mass presence that can set the agenda and make the establishment tremble. It is much more than the caricatured Saturday paper sale and the inquorate trades council meeting. If the future is in the business of being dangerous, then that is the only destiny suitable for the left.

Anyway, I'm rambling. That's the end of the road for me and the Labour Party for the time being. But certainly not an end for me and politics.

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New Left Media June 2024

It's been eight months (eight months!) since the blog last played host to a round up of new left media projects. And that's because not many have shown up on the radar. But there has been a trickle, and here they now are. All are worth giving your time to, so check them out!

1. Class Consciousness Project (Blog/Magazine) (Twitter)

2. If I Speak (Podcast)

3. Labour Left Podcast (YouTube Channel) (Twitter)

4. Over the Top Under the Radar (Podcast) (Twitter)

5. The Break Down (Podcast/Magazine) (Twitter)

If you know of any new(ish) blogs, podcasts, channels, Facebook pages, resources, spin offs of existing projects, campaign websites or whatever that haven't featured before then drop me a line via the comments, email, Facebook, or Twitter. Please note I'm looking for new media that has started within the last 12 months, give or take. The round up appears hereabouts when there are enough new entrants to justify a post!

Dismantling Labour's Base

I can't think of another episode that sums up the Labour right's spite and petty-mindedness more than what's happened this week. Taking out Lloyd Russell-Moyle with a vexatious complaint with no time for him to contest it. Deciding to get rid of Faiza Shaheen - selected fair and square by her CLP - and using decade-old tweets from before she was a party member as evidence for her "unsuitability". And then Diane Abbott who, we learned this week, had had the "investigation" against her closed in December and that everything Keir Starmer has said about the subject since has been an outright lie. The Labour right pushed to block her candidacy, but their schemes suffered a rare reversal as political and media pressure, and Diane's threat to stand as an independent, forced them into retreat. Not that they're too bothered, seeing how they helped themselves to a heap of safe seats suddenly made vacant by MPs pressured into retirement.

This tawdry episode, particularly the targeting of Diane, is a quick time run through of what they've done to the party since Starmer got elected. However, while the media can usually pay little to no attention to internal Labour stitching and purging, unless the left are in charge, this is no longer the case. Since Starmer disgracefully went into bat for Israeli war crimes, Labour has suffered a collapse among its core Muslim vote. This is the immediate precipitating factor of George Galloway's by-election victory and the seeming viability of his party - and is a story even the most obsequious Starmer-loyal outlets could not ignore. Now we're in a general election campaign, all this is fair game for the media. Especially for its Tory supporting sections who are looking for anything to throw in Labour's direction.

That alone makes the Labour right's factional moves stupid. They're undertaking them in full public view at the height of a general election campaign when more people are paying attention. But they say much more than that. Not content with alienating important blocs of Muslim supporters, the shoddy treatment meted out to Diane shows the party thinks it can manage without black British supporters too. All week we've had Labour figures, usually white men, saying she was a trailblazer but now her time is up. What do these geniuses think the conversations are among black households and those for whom anti-racism matters, and is not a guise put on for appearances sake? Again, it's the same disgusting calculation. They think Labour can not only win despite pissing off core voters, it can actually win even more hard right votes by capitalising on the Tories and the media's racist demonisation of Diane.

Apart from the immediate consequence of emboldening racists, especially when right wing street mobilisations are more likely in the coming years, this shows the shape of unpleasant things to come. Labour has never been backward about being forward with its own dabbling in racist politics and strategies. It's embedded in Labourism's soul, and under Starmer it has been deployed as a weapon when considered opportune. But with the elevation of so many Labour right apparatchiks to the parliamentary party for whom racism is a factional and political tool, the readiness to use it has, on paper, grown. These are the ones who will be the loudest cheerleaders for Starmer's "Border Security Command", for demonising refugees and immigrants, ramping up the anti-Muslim rhetoric and, it almost goes without saying, bombing Middle Eastern nations.

The second is that they've got away with their objective. Starmer has carried the can for their obsessive attacks on Diane, but are flush with success from cancelling Shaheen's candidacy and putting Russell-Moyle out to pasture. Who can say whether there will be more in the coming days? By outsourcing shenanigans to the worst people in the party Starmer has given them carte blanche to do as they please, and this entitlement to their fiefdom will include the PLP and Number 10 after the election. They can't wait to do their own leaking, their own briefing against ministers and other MPs/rivals. They want to swan around like they own the shop. And because Starmer has limited his own hinterland thanks to his Faustian bargain with these people, their turn against him when things go wrong is foregone.

But there is much more serious trouble brewing. It's been long argued here (and here) that, despite the seat distribution of the 2019 election result, Starmer inherited a pretty hefty coalition of Labour supporters that was likely to hold together and grow provided he pushed policies that were commensurate with their interests. Of course, he was never going to do that but the warning's there, lodged in the historical record. Over three years on and his politics and the behaviour of his fair weather allies have accelerated that process. Offering nothing for workers, despite his patronising language about "working people", attacking trans rights while pretending to be LGBTQ+ friendly, and the racism of backing Israel and taking delight in attack Britain's first black woman MP is demobilising this support. The current polling numbers flatter Starmer, powered by a visceral anti-Toryism over any genuine affection for the Labour leader and his policy agenda. But they will not last long, and as the difficulties mount the people he and his project have so far alienated, along with millions of others, are going to find alternatives ready to receive them.

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Five Most Popular Posts in May

We're almost at the 2024's half-way point. How did that happen? Instead of pondering the transitory character of time and our own mortality, let's look at what did the business on the blog in May.

1. Welcoming Natalie Elphicke
2. Why Has Rishi Sunak Called an Election?
3. What a Card
4. The End of Tory Hopes
5. The Stupidity of Jacob Rees-Mogg

Our top performer was during those halcyon days when we thought the election was several months away. The defection of right winger Natalie Elphicke raised a few eyebrows, but was it just about pure opportunism on Keir Starmer's part? And the answer is ... no. The explanation? You'll just have to click on the link. Then came the election announcement itself. The pros and cons of going "early" are weighed up here, as was the (overlooked) pressure of bourgeois responsibility. A reminder that while it presents itself as such, politics is not an autonomous field. Coming in third was the politics of Labour's new pledge card and what that is all about. Fourth considered the Tories' bad local and mayoral election results. Seems like an age ago. And bringing up the rear were a few thoughts about Jacob Rees-Mogg's latest pronouncements. A man who, with any luck, we'll see the back of at the genny lec.

Taking them out to the second chance saloon, the post about JG Ballard's Crash receives my hospitality. It's probably all been said in one way or another before, but not by me.

Looking forward to June the new month is going to be dominated by election coverage. Coming up are reflections on the row about Labour selections and victimisation of Faiza Shaheen and Diane Abbott, something on the Liberal Democrat campaign, a consideration of the character of the Green Party, the customary election time list of where far left parties will be standing, and commentary on the flare ups and nonsense we can expect during the campaign. The SF content has been a touch scanty in May, so hopefully I'll remedy that too. As ever, if you haven't already don't forget to follow the occasional newsletter, and if you like what I do (and you're not skint), you can help support the blog. Following me on Twitter and Facebook are cost-free ways of showing your backing for this corner of the internet.

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Local Council By-Elections May 2024

This month saw 180,062 votes cast in 74 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Eight council seats changed hands. For comparison with April's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Apr	+/- May 23	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	69	48,595	27.0%	-3.9	-2.6	704	-2
Labour	67	62,695	34.8%	+12.4	+3.0	936	+1
Lib Dem	60	33,921	18.8%	-0.4	-1.6	565	0
Green	54	20,634	11.5%	+6.2	+1.2	382	+1
SNP*	1	916	0.5%	-7.4	+0.5	916	0
PC**	0						0
Ind***	27	7,814	4.3%	-10.0	-3.5	289	0
Other****	25	5,887	3.3%	-2.6	+2.9	235	0

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were four Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Heritage (36), Liberal (22), Party of Women (42), Peterborough First (1,307), Reform (417, 212, 128, 90, 82), Scottish Family Party (136), Socialist Alternative (86), South Devon Alliance (523), Tattenham and Preston Residents (1,318), TTIP (150), TUSC (151, 82, 48, 30, 33, 20, 19), UKIP (259, 50), Workers' Party (198, 46)

The local elections were pretty awful for the Tories. The council by-elections held on the same day? Less so. May wasn't a complete wash out for them where local contests were concerned, but the size of the absolute votes gap between them and Labour is hardly a cause for encouragement. But if anything, with only eight seats changing hands, there are no big movements in the polling numbers. The Tories have slipped a wee bit, Labour has made a modest advance, and it's rinse and repeat with the Liberal Democrats and Greens. A feeding frenzy on tender Conservative flesh just didn't happen.

That isn't to say that won't happen when the big one lands on 4th July. Between now and then there are 17 by-elections in June to look forward to, and if I'm going to venture a projection I can't imagine the results to come will differ much from what we have here.

2 May
Adur, St Mary's, Lab hold
Amber Valley, Crich and South Wingfield, Con hold
Bedford, Riverfield, LDem hold
Birmingham, Bournbrook and Selly Park, Lab hold
Bolton, Horwich North, Ind hold
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole, Canford Cliffs, Con hold
Breckland, Hermitage, Con gain from LDem
Brighton and Hove, Kemptown, Lab hold
Brighton and Hove, Queen's Park, Lab hold
Bromley, Shortlands and Park Langley, Con hold
Broxtowe. Attenborough and Chilwell East, Lab hold
Camden, Frognal, Con hold
Charnwood, Loughborough East, Lab hold
Cheshire West and Chester, Wolverham, Lab hold
Colchester, Greenstead, Lab hold
Croydon, Park Hill and Whitgift, Con hold
Croydon, Woodside, Lab hold
Durham, Horden, Lab hold
East Devon, Exmouth Brixington, Con hold
Essex, Harlow South East, Con hold
Gosport, Lee West, Con hold x2
Hackney, De Beauvoir, Lab hold
Hackney, Hoxton East and Shoreditch, Lab hold
Hampshire, Fareham Sarisbury, Con hold
Hampshire, Meon Valley, Grn gain from Con
Hart, Fleet East, LDem hold
Hillingdon, Hillingdon East, Con hold
Hounslow, Brentford West, Lab hold
Huntingdonshire, Great Paxton, LDem gain from Con
Ipswich, Priory Heath, Lab hold
Ipswich, St John's, Lab hold
Islington, Hillrise, Lab hold
Kensington and Chelsea, Norland, Con hold
Lambeth, Knight's Hill, Lab hold
Lambeth, Streatham Common and Vale, Lab hold
Lancaster, Carnforth and Millhead, Lab hold
Leicestershire, Burbage, LDem gain from Con
Lewisham, Deptford, Lab hold
Lincolnshire, Park, Lab hold
Manchester, Didsbury East, Lab hold
Mid Suffolk, Chilton, Grn hold
Mole Valley, Capel, Leigh, Newdigate & Charlwood, LDem hold
Newcastle upon Tyne, Fawdon and West Gosforth, LDem hold
North West Leicestershire, Snibston South, Lab hold
Oxford, Blackbird Leys, Lab hold
Peterborough, Werrington, Oth hold
Reigate and Banstead, Tattenham Corner and Preston, Oth hold
Runnymede, Woodham and Rowtown, Con hold
St Albans, Batchwood, LDem hold
St Albans, London Colney, Lab gain from LDem
St Albans, Sandridge and Wheathampstead, LDem hold
Salford, Ordsall, Lab gain from LDem
Sheffield, Firth Park, Lab hold
Somerset, Mendip South, LDem hold
South Derbyshire, Melbourne, Con hold
South Gloucestershire, New Cheltenham, Lab hold
South Norfolk, Bunwell, Grn gain from Con
Stoke-on-Trent, Meir North, Lab hold
Sutton, St Helier West, Con gain from Lab
Swindon, Wroughton and Wichelstowe, Con hold
Teignbridge, Ashburton and Buckfastleigh, LDem hold
Torridge, Bideford North, LDem gain from Grn
Wakefield, Normanton, Lab hold
Wandsworth, West Putney, Con gain from Lab
Warwick, Leamington Clarendon, Lab hold
Waverley, Witley and Milford, LDem hold
West Devon, Tavistock North, LDem hold
West Lancashire, Tarleton Village, Con hold
Westmorland and Furness, Grange and Cartmel, LDem hold
Woking, Hoe Valley, LDem hold
Worcestershire, Evesham North West, Con hold

9 May
North Ayrshire, Kilwinning, Lab gain from Con

23 May
Melton, Wymondham, Con hold

30 May
Birmingham, Kingstanding, Con hold

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