Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Aug
|
+/- Sep 23
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
37
| 12,789 |
23.0%
| +2.1 |
-7.2
|
346
|
+4
|
Labour
|
39
| 15,968 |
28.7%
| -0.6 |
-3.1
| 409
|
-7
|
Lib Dem
|
34
| 8,655
|
15.6%
| +4.1 |
-5.3
|
255
|
+1
|
Reform*
|
16
| 2,823
|
5.1%
| -1.5 |
+4.4
|
176
|
0
|
Green
|
30
| 6,602
|
11.9%
| +2.4
|
+7.9
|
220
|
0
|
SNP**
|
4
| 2,439 |
4.4%
| -5.3 |
+0.8
| 610
|
+1
|
PC***
|
2
| 119 |
0.2%
| -1.9 |
+0.2
|
60
|
0
|
Ind****
|
27
| 5,627 |
10.1%
|
+2.0
|
208
|
+1
| |
Other*****
|
7
|
1.0%
| -0.5 |
+0.2
|
83
|
0 |
* Reform's comparison results are based on recomputing their tallies in Others over the last month/year
** There were five by-elections in Scotland
*** There were two by-elections in Wales
**** There were six Independent clashes
***** Others this month were Alba (133), Crewe First (109), Heritage Party (30), Party of Women (19), Workers' Party (166, 52). Comparison results are now based on the last month's/year's result with Reform's totals subtracted
I've bowed to the pressure of the polls. Because Reform have started taking council by-elections more seriously and standing decent numbers of candidates, for the first time since the eclipse of UKIP an extreme right party has returned to the table of parties. Explainers above about how their past performance has been tracked are in the notes above. This will carry on until this time next year.
Elsewhere, this cycle of by-elections have been terrible for Labour. Yes, it's a mix of local factors plus displeasure at Winter Fuel cuts won't have done their performance much good (remember, pensioners are more likely to turn out for council by-elections). But we need to temper this with the overall picture. At the general election dozens of Labour councillors won seats and will be vacating them in fairly short order. As it's more their seats that are up for grabs than Tory-held seats, it's expected that their "punishment" will look more severe than it actually is. Still, dropping so many councillors so quickly and seeing the Tories win back seats already is weird. Yet it isn't if you keep the amateur hour that is freebie gate, winter fuel, and letting rumours about scrapping single persons' council tax discount circulate without rebuttal are taken into consideration.
Elsewhere, solid results for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens and a respectable outing for Reform, which amounts to their biggest monthly by-election intervention so far. Not, however, their best result at this level.
October will be another ludicrous month for by-elections with over 50 slated. Depending on what's in the budget, Labour could well find themselves even more out of pocket come Hallowe'en. And if they are, it will all be thanks to the shoddy tricks they've played on the electorate.
3rd September
Swale, Priory, LDem hold
5th September
Camden, Camden Square, Lab hold
Camden, Kentish Town South, Lab hold
Camden, Kilburn, Lab hold
Cheshire East, Crewe West, Lab hold
Manchester, Baguley, Lab hold
Merthyr Tydfil, Bedlinog & Trelewis, Lab gain from Ind
Redcar & Cleveland, Longbeck, Con gain from Lab
12th September
Cambridge, Romsey, Lab hold
Gateshead, Bridges, Lab hold
Hackney, London Fields, Lab hold
Hackney, Stoke Newington, Grn gain from Lab
Milton Keynes, Bletchley East, Lab hold
Newcastle-upon-Tyne, North Jesmond, LDem hold
Norfolk, Freebridge Lynn, Ind gain from LDem
North Ayrshire, Arran, Lab gain from Con
North Norfolk, North Walsham Market Cross, LDem hold
Tower Hamlets, Bow East, Lab hold
16 September
Gedling, Bestwood St Albans, Con gain from Lab
19 September
Bromsgrove, Sidemoor, LDem gain from Lab
Cornwall, Falmouth Penerris, Lab hold
Hartlepool, Burn Valley, Lab hold
Huntingdonshire, St Neots Eatons, Ind gain from Con
Stockton-on-Tees, Fairfield, Con hold x2
Westminster, Harrow Road, Lab hold
Westminster, West End, Con gain from Lab
Worthing, Marine, Con gain from Lab
24 September
Mid Suffolk, Thurston, Con gain from Grn
Waverley, Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse, Con gain from Lab
26 September
Denbighshire, Rhyl Trellewelyn, Con gain from Lab
East Staffordshire, Stretton, Con hold
Herefordshire, Credenhill, Ind hold
Highland, Cromarty Firth x2, Ind hold, LDem hold
Highland, Inverness Central, Lab hold
Luton, Barnfield, LDem hold
Luton, Wigmore, LDem hold
Perth & Kinross, Perth City North, SNP gain from Lab
Perth & Kinross, Strathallan, LDem gain from Con
2 comments:
Why does the right hand column of the table only count 7 of the 15 seats that changed hands?
Because it's net gains and losses. For instance, the Greens gained a seat and lost a seat. That's two seats that changed hands, but negates itself hence the zero. If you scroll down you can see which seats changed hands.
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