Friday 26 March 2021

Local Council By-Elections March 2021

An unexpected surprise! A clutch of Scottish and Welsh by-elections ahead of May's Super Thursday. This month saw 44,016 votes cast over 15 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Eight council seats changed hands. For comparison with November's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Nov
+/- Mar 20
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
           13
11,026
    25.0%
   -0.7
    -10.6
    848
     0
Labour
           14
 8,749
    19.9%
  +9.5
     +4.4
    625
    +1
LibDem
           12
 2,350
     5.3%
  -7.3
    -26.2
    196
     0
Green
           10
 2,676
     6.1%
  -1.2
     +2.3
    268
     0
SNP*
           11
14,559
    33.1%
  -8.8
   +33.1
  1,324
    -3
PC**
            4
 1,127
     2.6%
  +2.6
     +2.6
    282
    +1
Ind***
           11
 3.373
     7.7%
  +4.0
     -5.8
    307
    +1
Other****
            6
  156
     0.4%
  +0.0
     -1.7
     26
     0


* There were 11 by-elections in Scotland
** There were four by-elections in Wales
*** There were three Independent clashes this month
**** Others this month consisted of UKIP (31, 15, 29, 33, 26), and the Workers' Party of Britain (22)

An interesting set of by-elections in which the legend of the impervious SNP took a battering, losing four councillors to the Tories and Labour and only winning one back off the latter by way of compensation. While we're talking about Labour, I think the Scottish party are going to be quietly pleased with their performance as the month posted some of their strongest showings in quite some time. The Tories a bit less so as they dropped their gains as an Independent and Labour swooped in and took a couple of seats.

Things were also interesting at the lower end too. The Greens put in a good showing and beat the Liberal Democrats, which was fun to see. Plaid Cymru put a dent in Labour's month by nabbing a seat, and UKIP showed up to demonstrate how eviscerated a force they now are. In Argyll and Bute we witnessed the electoral debut of George "I'm voting Tory Galloway's Workers Party of Britain, probably the ugliest formation to have emerged from the far left in recent years. And they didn't do well at all. Shame.

Is that our lot until May? No, the good news is three by-elections are scheduled for April. Be still my beating heart.

4th March
North Lanarkshire UA, Fortissat, Lab gain from SNP
North Lanarkshire UA, Thorniewood, Lab gain from SNP

11th March
Highland UA, Aird and Loch Ness, Ind gain from Con
Scottish Borders UA, Leaderdale and Melrose, Con gain from SNP
West Lothian UA, Livingston South, SNP hold

18th March
Argyll and Bute UA, Isle of Bute, Ind hold
Argyll and Bute UA, Helensburgh and Lomond South, Con hold
Conwy UA, Eirias, Ind hold
Denbighshire CC, Corwen, PC hold
Glasgow UA, Baillieston, SNP gain from Lab
Glasgow UA, Partick East/Kelvindale, Lab gain from Con
Wrexham UA, Maesydre, PC gain from Lab

25th March
Gwynedd UA, Llanrug, PC hold
Midlothian UA, Midlothian East, SNP hold
Perth and Kinross, Almond and Earn, Con gain from SNP

3 comments:

Jimbo said...

So what's happening in Liverpool?

Anonymous said...

I would say that although Labour picked up a few seats, from what I read about the local situations the only one that would be considered success would be the Partick East/Kelvindale, every other one was closer than expected or weird dynamics due to the weird transfer system they use. Though not much to be read into either way. Good analysis below.

http://ballotbox.scot/glasgow-by-election-results-18-03-2021
http://ballotbox.scot/livingston-south-west-lothian-by-election-result
http://ballotbox.scot/north-lan-by-election-results-2021

JN said...

Regarding Scottish politics specifically, it's an interesting development that Alex Salmond has started a new party. Positive in the sense that it might push the SNP into more actively pursuing Scottish independence; negative in that 'Alba' seems to currently be functioning as a more right-wing alternative for politicians suspended from, or otherwise uncomfortable within, the existing SNP.