Friday, 26 May 2017

Local Council By-Elections May 2017

Here's what's been happening in the local authority by-election scene this last month.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Apr
+/- May 16
Average/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
          113
 86,701
  41.0%
  +1.8%
    +11.3%
    767
  +11
Labour
            90
 58,504
  27.7%
  -2.9%
       -9.8%
    650
    -8
LibDem
            88
 40,269
  19.1%
  +2.9%
      +9.6%
    458
     0
UKIP
            48
  8,338
    3.9%
  +1.4%
       -5.9%
    174
    -2
Green
            55
  8,573
    4.1%
  -1.2%
       -1.8%
    156
   +1
SNP*
             0

 

  

     0
PC**
             0

   

      
 
     0
Ind***
           24
  6,395
    3.0%
 -2.6%
      +1.7%
    267
    -3
Other****
           14
  2,576
    1.2%
 +1.2%
      +0.6%
    184
   +1

* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others this month consisted of WEP (40), Yorks First (46), Elvis Bus Pass (51), National Bocialist (0), Residents 4 Uttlesford (623), English Democrats (188), TUSC (37, 25, 27, 83), Liberal Party (64), St Neots Ind Group (854), Monster Raving Loony (33), and Health Concern (506)

Overall, 211,356 votes were cast over 113 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 24 council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with April's results, see here.

Now this is interesting. The Tories hold a massive lead while Labour languish well behind, and a strong showing from the Liberal Democrats too. Compare these results with the projected vote share from the local elections held in early May: 38%, Labour 27%, LibDems 18%, UKIP 5%. They fair resemble them, don't they? And I think it would have been a reasonable prediction back then to have suggested Labour was in for a drubbing. However, as we've learned these last two years politics moves, and it moves fast. There was an about turn in the polls suggesting something of a Labour recovery anyway, but the unforced dementia tax debacle, subsequent collapse of the Tory campaign and the fall out from the Manchester attacks has put a ramjet under Labour and the polls are closing. In approximately a month we've gone from no-hopers to in with a shout of winning - incredible.

Two weekends left and the dynamism is with Labour. This weekend on the doors is going to be very interesting.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

One interesting snippet that backs up your comments - in the five contests *since* the May 4 regular polls, Labour have increased their share in four of them.

Mark Livingston said...

Blairite careerists spooked by latest polls. Sabotage tactics not working. Labour are back in the game. There's no way the New Labour dinosaurs could justify #chickencoup2 post election now. It wasn't supposed to be like this!

Defy Tom Watson. Vote Labour.

Anonymous said...

We’re gonna win this election. The UK will soon have its first socialist PM ever!

George Carty said...

Clement Attlee wasn't a socialist?

Anonymous said...

ICM and ComRes don't think so.....