Friday, 31 March 2017

Quarter One Local By-Election Results 2017

 Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q4
+/- Q1 2016
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
   42
15,626
  28.0%
 -2.8%
  +1.0%
   372
   -7
Labour
   36
14,190
  25.4%
+0.5%
   -2.7%
   394
   -2
LibDem
   35
12,093
  21.7%
+3.3%
  +5.3%
   346
  +8
UKIP
   31
 5,403
    9.7%
+3.9%
  +0.1%
   174
   -2
Green
   24
 2,199
    3.9%
 +0.7%
  +0.4%
    92
  +2
SNP*
    1
 1,461
    2.6%
 -4.1%
   -3.0%
  1,461
    0
PC**
    0
   
   
    0
Ind***
    9
 1,621
    2.9%
 -3.9%
    -0.7%
   180
   -1
Other****
    6
 3,239
    5.8%
+3.9%
   +1.0%
   540
  +2

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes
**** Others this Quarter consisted of Fylde Ratepayers (564), Bollington First (939), Uttlesford Residents (824 & 716), Scottish Libertarian (53 votes), and It's Our County (143 votes)

Overall, 55,832 votes were cast over 42 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison see Quarter Four's results here.

There's not a great deal to add to previous commentary on the monthly by-election tallies. Conservative and Labour vote shares on this occasion are depressed by the anomalous but excellent results scored by the LibDems in February and, to a lesser extent, the huge vote that went to Others (main residents' association-type outfits) in the same month. But the Tories lead in vote share, though they will keep dropping those council seats. Labour are stuck in the doldrums, UKIP are back at their "natural" level after years of hype, and the Greens quietly did well too. I'd be happy if Labour walked away from a quarter with a single net gain, let alone two.

Now Brexit has been triggered, I expect pretty much the same story as this quarter. The LibDems will continue to do well, but I want to see if the Greens, SNP, and Plaid are able to reap any Remain dividend in vote terms too.

2 comments:

Albert Tatlock said...

Just think how well we would be doing in the polls if we didn't have a big fat toxic tub of Tory-lite lard for a deputy leader.

Speedy said...

Re my previous comments re Lib Dem renaissance and Labour holding strong in cities:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-so-unpopular-in-london-that-even-labour-supporters-think-he-is-doing-badly-a3504146.html