Friday 26 August 2016

Local Council By-Elections August 2016

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
July
Average/
contest
+/-  
July
+/-
Seats
Conservative
   21
10,739
  28.8%
 +3.5%
    511
   +271
    -1
Labour
   16
11,160
  29.9%
  -0.1%
    698
   +246
     0
LibDem
   16
  3,265
    8.7%
-13.6%
    204
    -170
   +1
UKIP
   13
  3,842
  10.3%
 +4.2%
    296
    +121
     0
Green
    8
     819
    2.2%
  -4.2%
    102
    -132
     0
SNP*
    3
  3,552
    9.5%
 +6.3%
  1,184
   +129
     0
PC**
    0
   
  
  
     0
TUSC
    0
     
   
 
     
    
     0
Ind***
    8
  2,017
    5.4%
  -0.4%
    252
   +108
    -2
Other****
    9
  1,931
    5.2%
 +4.1%
    215
   +125
   +2

* There were three by-elections in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** This month saw no Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of the Socialist Labour Party (131), SDP (15), United Thanet (44), North East Party (15), Farnham Residents' Assoc (754) (386) (356), English Democrats (24), and the Communist Party of Britain (86)

Overall, 37,325 votes were cast over 21 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. The Conservatives won seven contests, Labour six (one of which was a safe hold with a 500+ majority), LibDems two, UKIP three, and Others two, while eight council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with May's results, see here.

Another month, and another close result between the Conservatives and Labour. Noteworthy moments are the Tories taking a seat off Labour, and Labour winning something in Scotland the second month on the trot! Though what concerns me about Labour's performance is despite dwarfing all the other parties combined in membership size, somehow the Tories make a showing in the lion share of vacancies, regardless of how awful their prospects. I do have a story about the hook and crookery they employ to ensure this is done, but I'm saving it up. Still, the point remains: there is no reason why Labour shouldn't contest every seat that comes up and the party needs to encourage its branches to be more pro-active.

In other news, stone me! UKIP have out-polled the LibDems. Admittedly, while the yellows scooped up an extra seat, which is better than the purples' showing, they fielded more candidates and got a poorer vote. As one sunny day doesn't make a summer, especially in Britain, I'll put this down as a blip in UKIP's decline. But if the facts change, to indulge a celebrated phrase, my mind will too.

Also, some interesting far left challenges tucked away. Both were Scottish, and both slightly perplexing. The Morning Star's Communist Party of Britain was contesting a seat with a history of communist support, so I suppose it makes sense. Which, given their sporadic and light-minded approach to contesting elections, is something of a strategic advance for them. As for the SLP, long-term Stalinoid watchers know it seldom contests, and when it does it's usually to spoil another far left candidate's chances. Some folk set their political ambitions so very low.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

UKIP's score was boosted by a few good results in Kent - fast emerging as one of their genuine strongholds (and, coincidentally or otherwise, an area where the "red UKIP" tendency is notably strong.

In most other contests, their post-GE decline continued.

jim mclean said...

Independent Willie Clark who resigned was the last sponsored Communist Party member. He and Alex Maxwell were the only two members of Democratic Left elected on that name. The Labour victor is a strong independence supporter.An interesting read would be Willie's annual expense sheet. 0. 0. 0. 0. etc

Unknown said...

And the Scottish Labour victory came about from second preference Cons. votes.

Anonymous said...

Labour came clearly ahead on first preferences in Fife.

But don't let that stop you ;)

jim mclean said...

Unknown. The transfers do not show that, the failure of the SNP to get the Green Transfers and the fear of Nepotism were major factors.
Meanwhile Woke up this morning and after two decades, 10 years Labour, 10 years SNP rule, I still live in the most deprived ward in Fife, and all we get from the Local Party is a constitutional battle that is suffocating the life out of it. Gordon Brown gets headlines about Federalism, Alex Rowley has let it been known that he will take on Kezia for the leadership if JC wins, great discussions, great talks, leaflets press releases, will be going to bed tonight still living in the poorest ward in Fife. Why is Labour dying, too much macro not enough micro.
The relationship between the rise of nationalism and failure to address the needs of the bottom 20% is clear.
http://simd.scot/2016/#/simd2016/BTTTFTT/9/-4.0000/55.9000/