Friday 27 September 2013

By-Election Results September 2013

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- August
Average/
contest
+/-
August
+/-
Seats
Conservative
30
11,123
  32.6%
+5.8%
    371
   -40
  nc
Labour
25
 9,688
  28.4%
 -6.9%
    387
 -185
  nc
LibDem
18
 3,206
    9.4%
+1.1%
    178 
   -12
   -2
UKIP
28
 7,261
  21.3% 
+3.2%
    259
   -98
  +3
SNP*


  
  
   
  
Plaid Cymru**


       
  
     
  
  
Green
10
1,140
    3.3%
 +2.2%
   114
   +45  
   +1 
BNP
1
   120
    0.4%  
 +0.4%
   120 
 +120
   nc
TUSC

  
    
  
     
  
Independent***
9
1,381
    4.1%  
 +0.6%
   153
   +16
   -1
Other****
3
  176
    0.5%
  -2.1%
     59
   -84
   -1

* There were no by-elections in Scotland.
** There were no by-elections in Wales.
*** There was only one independent clash consisting of two candidates in a single contest.
**** 'Other' this month consisted of National Front (16 votes), English Democrats (78 votes) and Tendring First (82 votes)

Overall, 34,095 votes were cast over 30 individual local (tier one and tier two) authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison see August's results here.

Ostensibly, this was a poor month for Labour. It won a single councillor, and lost another while holding out in a large number of seats. It also demonstrates that despite being a larger party than the Tories (and for that matter, UKIP), the fewer number of candidates may suggest membership is more concentrated and less widespread than either of these two organisations - an observation that has more than a few anecdotes to back it up. And yet, despite this, the average vote per contest remains marginally higher than the Conservatives and well ahead of UKIP's. Yet there's no denying Farage's one man band can pull in the numbers and win elections outside of European contests. They're now hitting the sort of votes the LibDems can only dream of.

Once again, these monthly results come with a large caveat: the places by-elections take place vary enormously from month-to-month. Such differences of location are more likely to be balanced out over a larger time frame and a more accurate picture of (possible) voting intention could emerge.

3 comments:

Speedy said...

Caveat taken but isn't the key point that the Tory vote went up by 6, the UKIP by 3 and the Labour down by 7 per cent?

Phil said...

No, because a large number of by-elections this month took place in safe Tory areas - hence the skewing of the results towards them and the good showing from UKIP. The three month view (just posted) is more likely to capture an even spread of 2015 voting intentions.

Phil said...

Also worth noting that despite that caveat, Labour managed a better average voting performance than with the Conservatives or UKIP.