The truth of the matter is before this crime against peace, the Strait of Hormuz was open. It no longer is, subject to a fee. Iran have shown, regardless of the threats, regardless of the thousands dead, that they can exert control over passage and will do so should the terms of the ceasefire be breached. Hence why it has closed the waterway again, following Wednesday's outrages in Lebanon. But for Trump, political realities are stood on their head. The greatest strategic defeat since the 2nd World War has to be spun as a beautiful thing in the President's ever-green world. Look! We took out their military! Look! The ships are moving again. Unfortunately for Trump and the Republicans, loyal supporters can see the prices at the pumps shooting upwards and the grocery basket weighing heavier on their bank balance. Even the most gullible find it hard to swallow lies if they cost them more today than it did yesterday.
Trump's colossus with the feet of clay moment has upset the world balance of power. The US's declinist trajectory vis a vis China and India has sped up as a much smaller and less powerful country has faced Washington down, and won. The consequences for this are two-fold. Opponents of the US are likely to be emboldened. Or, to be more accurate, less fearful. The brute strength of American arms can no longer dictate outcomes. And secondly, the foundation of US leadership is fraying as its range of subordinate powers, including the UK, slip the leash and start acting more independently of it. We see this with the bilateral talks several West European countries have arranged with Iran as they seek preferential passage through the Strait for ships sailing under their flags.
Nothing says this more than the reaction to Israel's terror bombing of Lebanon on Wednesday, which as of writing has claimed 303 lives. Israel have tried arguing that their operations ostensibly against Hezbollah are not covered by the ceasefire, and they were initially backed up by the US. But throughout Thursday, there has been a steady stream of countries criticising Netanyahu and contradicting the American line. Keir Starmer said the attacks were wrong and "should stop". Australia has said the ceasefire should apply to Lebanon "as well". Brazil has said Israel risks further destabilisation. This builds on the joint statement put out by EU leaders, plus the UK and Canada. With everyone else going one way, Israel has offered talks with Lebanon - seemingly with the US nod. If only the Europeans were as assertive with Israel two-and-a-half years ago. They may have prevented a genocide.
As the American alliance system starts to fray, where does this leave Trump? Lashing out at all and sundry. He's taken to complaining about NATO, again, and continues to drop heavy hints that the US will withdraw from the alliance. An act that requires two-thirds majority approval from Congress, following a 2023 law. Having failed so utterly overseas, and with a budget targeting the living standards of ordinary Americans, Trump and his helpers will be looking to cook up another circus. More super high profile ICE raids? Loud complaints about this Sunday's Hungarian election? For Trump, little over a quarter into his presidency he's already looking at re-running the outrages from his first year, but with diminishing audiences. There are few options open to him to try and bolster his party's support, beyond egregiously and obviously trying to fix elections. Nothing is going Trump's way, and with all this there is still the Epstein scandal waiting to unveil the full depths of his depravity.
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