
This month saw 41,477 votes cast in 25 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 18(!) council seats changed hands. For comparison with October's results, see here.
Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Oct
|
+/- Nov 24
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
25
| 7,171 |
17.3%
| +1.5 |
-5.3
|
287
|
-3
|
Labour
|
23
| 4,502 |
10.9%
| -1.6 |
-13.8
| 196
|
-6
|
Lib Dem
|
20
| 5,324
|
12.8%
| -12.1 |
-5.6
|
266
|
+1
|
Reform
|
24
| 11,432
|
27.6%
| -2.0 |
+17.5
|
476
| +8
|
Green
|
14
| 5,484
|
13.2%
| +5.2
|
+6.7
|
392
|
0
|
SNP*
|
2
| 2,135 |
5.1%
| +3.1 |
-7.5
| 1,068
|
+1
|
PC**
|
1
| 659 |
1.6%
| +1.6 |
+1.6
| 659
|
0
|
Ind***
|
16
| 4,213 |
10.2%
|
+6.8
|
263
|
-1
| |
Other****
|
5
|
1.6%
| -0.5 |
-0.2
|
131
|
0 |
* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were four Independent clashes this month
**** Others this in November were Alba (83), Equality Party (45), Heritage Party (27), Lingfield and Crowhurst Residents (457), Sovereignty (45)
What a month. Almost three quarters of all the seats that were up changed hands. You want electoral volatility? Council by-elections have them! On top of that, November sticks out for three reasons.
Reform lost vote share on the month-to-month comparison, which is a most infrequent occurrence since Nigel Farage came back as leader and the party started climbing up the polls. They'll keep piling on the council seats in local contests, seeing as they reflect the shift in public attitudes. And will likely do so despite their well known difficulties in local government. Their slight decline is merely a sign that their vote share is more or less stabilising month-to-month.
Then we have Labour's vote, which must be the party's worst performance outside of anomalous months where only a handful of wards face by-elections. Is this rock bottom or is there further to go?
And lastly, congratulations to the Greens. This is the first time, in monthly by-election tally terms, that they've not only come third place, but have out-polled the Liberal Democrats and, crucially as per Zack Polanski's stated position to replace them, Labour. Some might say this is a freak result, but politics being as it is keeps throwing up such outliers.
Pooled results from council by-elections don't matter ... or do they? Leaving aside the caveats that come from interpreting these results, such as the consequences of local issues and local preferences, and thet fact older people are even more likely to vote in them (or, to be more accurate, working age people are even less likely to participate) and their tendency to support the right wing parties, it does paint a picture of what's going on under the hood. And what the state of the engine is telling us is that Labour's base is evaporating. Just as yours truly has been saying for the last five years as Keir Starmer's Labour has moved to adopt policies that would attack its people. If you salt the earth, nothing will grow. A reality that Labour still shows little sign of waking up to.
Santa will bring us the gift of 20 by-elections in December, so expect something of a rinse and repeat of this month's results.
4 November
Burnley, Lanehead, Ind gain from Lab
Burnley, Queensgate, Ind gain from Lab
6 November
Fife, Buckhaven, Methil & Wemyss Villages, SNP gain from Lab
Harborough, Fleckney, Ref gain from Con
Newark & Sherwood, Balderton North & Coddington, Ref gain from Ind
Newark & Sherwood, Castle, Ref gain from Ind
South Derbyshire, Seales, Ind gain from Lab
Tandridge, Westway, LDem gain from Con
Tandridge, Lingfield, Crowhurst & Tandridge, Oth hold
West Devon, Okehampton South, LDem gain from Grn
13 November
Canterbury, Wincheap, Grn gain from LDem
East Lindsey, Chapel St Leonards, Ref gain from Con
Gwynedd, Bethel a'r Felinheli, PC hold
North Somerset, Long Ashton, Grn hold
Vale of White Horse, Ridgeway, LDem hold
20 November
Cheshire East, Macclesfield Central, Grn gain from Lab
Dumfries & Galloway, Stanraer & The Rhin, Con gain from Ind
East Sussex, Ashdown & Conquest, Ref gain from Con
Redcar & Cleveland, South Bank, Lab hold
Stratford-on-Avon, Quinton, LDem hold
Stratford-on-Avon, Salford Priors & Alcester Rural, Ref gain from Con
Trafford, Hale, Con gain from Grn
27 November
King's Lynn & West Norfolk, Hunstanton, Ref gain from Ind
Pendle, Barnoldswick, LDem hold
Sunderland, Hetton, Ref gain from Lab
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