Prime Minister In Name Only

Another first for Liz Truss. Never in parliamentary history has a government U-turned on practically the entirety of the programme they came to office with. Whatever happens now, her place in the history books are assured. But what it means in practical terms is that Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng torched the economy, stoked inflation and interest rate rises, took the Tories to depths not seen in the polls since Tony Blair was at the height of his powers and have got absolutely nothing to show for it. The exposure of the Conservative Party for what it is has severely wounded it, perhaps to a point beyond recovery.

What made matters worse, in the Commons on Monday morning Truss just sat there passively as Jeremy Hunt detailed his total unpicking of her budget. This was a magnitude worse than the humiliations meted out to Theresa May in the heaviest Commons defeats ever seen for a sitting government, and was compounded by Truss making herself scarce at the end and wheeling out Penny Mordaunt to face Keir Starmer at this afternoon's urgent question. Never before has a Prime Minister not only been such a failure, but has seen to be such a failure.

For all intents and purposes, Truss is now Prime Minister in name only. She has been couped by the Tory briefcase brigade, that section of the Tory party to have been rejected at the two last leadership elections by the membership, and it's only thanks to her stupidities that they've come back. Still, Hunt's appointment might mean she gets to enjoy the environs of the Downing Street flat a little longer. One of their own is at the heart of government (and is effectively running it), and so why upset the apple cart?

However, while the Tories' fraying factions are agreed that Truss is awful there's not been much in the way of unity about the way forward. Some are touting a triple ticket of Hunt, Mordaunt, and Rish! Sunak as Prime Minister. Supporters of Ben Wallace, who pointedly decided not to run in the summer, are touting him. Even though he's shown no interest in taking over. And the far right of the party sense a chance, with Suella Braverman likely to pitch in to prevent there being a straight coronation. Keeping things as they are now with Truss as figurehead and Hunt as backseat driver is the least politically painful course of action in the immediate term. For one, Hunt's programme is something a lot of Tories would like. They get to riff off their greatest hits from 2010 to 2016 as the government wrings its hands and makes "tough decisions" about public spending.

But there are problems. Even if Hunt's puppetry of Truss is swallowed by the markets and the press, there are three immediate concerns. Hunt's walking back of the energy price freeze and limiting it until April next year slashes the government's projected borrowing, but leaves uncertainty about the politics and how people can meet (what are likely to be) even higher bills. But given how things are (36-point lead for Labour in today's Redfield Wilton, for instance) surely it can't get any worse. Second, the parliamentary party has filled out with so-called working class Tories who like their lashings of authoritarianism with paternalist economics. If Hunt is going to cut public services as promised in today's statement, given the seeming collapse of party discipline and coherence will they even go along with this? They are highly electorally exposed to any backlash. And lastly, what of the Trussites and the hard right? These are the people who are disappointed in the Prime Minister not because of what she did, but the fact she didn't stick to her guns. Now Hunt has declared their fantasies fantastical aren't they also likely to oppose what ever's coming down the budgetary pipe in a fortnight's time?

At this point it's immaterial whether Truss stays or goes. The battle lines are drawn for another round of agonising Tory civil warring and I for one am looking forward to it.

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