Sunday 25 February 2018

Local Council By-Elections February 2018

This month saw 52,824 votes cast over 34 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 12 council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with January's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Jan
+/- Feb 17
Average/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
           32
19,273
    36.5%
 -13.1%
    +13.0%
    602
     0
Labour
           31
14,342
    27.2%
   -0.4%
      +3.9%
    463
    -1
LibDem
           23
10,601
    20.1%
  +6.9%
       -7.3%
    461
   +4
UKIP
            7
   431
     0.8%
   -2.2%
       -8.5%
     62
    -1
Green
           19
 2,238
     4.2%
  +0.8%
      +0.6%
    118
     0
SNP
            2
 1,986
     3.8%
  +3.8%
      +3.8%
    993
     0
PC**
            0
  
    
 
      
   
     0
Ind***
           12
 3,483
     6.6%
 +3.3%
      +4.8%
    290
    -2
Other****
            3
   470
     0.9%
 +0.9%
     -10.3%
    157
     0

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** there was one by-election in Wales
*** There were three Independent clashes
**** Others this month included Ewell Residents (398), Something New (59), and Blue Revolution (13)

Quite a volatile set of results this month, with movements taking place here, there and everywhere. With 12 seats swapped, the councillor gains/losses don't reflect what's going on. For example, the Tories lost four seats in February but were able to claw four others back - including two from the Liberal Democrats. Meanwhile the old pattern of liberal by-election advances have resumed as they have once more displaced UKIP as the none-of-the-above party, but again they are disproportionately taking seats off the Tories, as per the purple party before they commenced their death spiral.

All in all, there's not much more you can read off from these results. The Tories maintain a healthy lead in the popular vote, but this month was a massive Tory fest with some two thirds of the seats up either held by them, or were leaning definitely towards them with Labour coming next to nowhere. Though Labour are up on the year-on-year in very unfavourable territory - a straw in the wind or indicative of something else? And as the year wears on, are we going to see results reflect the polarisation in the polls, or will the LibDems carry on being a repository of protest votes? We'll see.


1st February
Cornwall UA, Falmouth Smithick Lab hold
Sunderland City Council, Pallion Lib gain from Lab


8th February
Brighton & Hove UA, East Brighton Lab hold
East Staffordshire BC Stretton Con hold
Eden DC Hartside Con hold
South Staffordshire DC Codsall South Con hold
Staffordshire CC Codsall Con hold
Weymouth and Portland BC, Tophill East Con gain from Ind
Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill West Con hold

15th February
City of York UA , Holgate Lab hold
Doncaster MB, Armthorpe Lab hold
Northants CC, Higham Ferrers Con hold
East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster Con hold
Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley Oth hold
Falkirk UA , Bonnybridge & Larbert SNP hold
Halton UA, Halton Castle Lab hold
Lancashire CC Morecambe North Con hold
North-East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor Lab hold
North Norfolk DC, Worstead Lib gain from Con
Teignbridge DC Chudleigh Lib gain from Con
Teignbridge DC Dawlish Central and North-East Lib gain from Con
Tendring BC, St Paul's Con gain from UKIP
West Oxfordshire, Carterton South Con hold

22nd February
Arun DC, Marine Lib gain from Con
Boston BC, Old Leake & Wrangle Con hold
Chichester DC Fishbourne Lib hold
Dorset CC Bridport Con gain from Lib
Hertfordshire CC Goffs Oak & Bury Green Con hold
Lichfield Stowe Con hold
North Kesteven DC Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs Con gain from Ind
Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire Ind gain from Con
Torfaen UA, Trevethin Lab hold
West Dorset DC Bridport North Con gain from Lib
West Somerset DC, Minehead South Lib gain from Ind

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