Friday, 27 October 2017

Local Council By-Elections October 2017



















This month saw 51,773 votes cast over 31 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests (please note Loughbrough Hastings in Charnwood BC was a double vacancy). All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Six council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with September's results, see here.


Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Sept
+/- Oct 16
Average/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
           30
 15,685
    30.3%
 +2.9%
      +5.5%
    522
    -2
Labour
           30
 22,156
    42.8%
 +6.1%
    +15.3%
    739
   +2
LibDem
           25
  5,844
    11.3%
  -6.9%
     -12.0%
    234
   +1
UKIP
           16
  1,984
     3.8%
 +1.5%
       -2.4%
    124
    -1
Green
           19
  1,033
     2.0%
  -5.7%
       -2.8%
     54
     0
SNP
            1
  1,146
     2.2%
  -4.3%
       -3.5%
  1,146
     0
PC**
            0
 
   

      
   
     0
Ind***
           11
  3,108
     6.0%
 -0.5%
       -1.7%
    283
     0
Other****
            4
   817
     1.6%
 -1.4%
       -2.5%
    204
     0


* There was one by-election in Scotland this month
** No by-elections in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others this month consisted of Yorkshire Party (153), Putting Hartlepool First (474), Elvis Bus Pass (34), It's Our County (Herefordshire) (156)

Another month goes by and the obvious polarisation that, strangely, next to no pundits and political "science" commentators are talking about, continue to manifest. The long promised melt down in Labour's cores is nowhere to be seen, and last year's LibDem insurgency is but a heady memory for some. If only someone had written an explanation for all this, eh?

Obviously, while I would love Labour to have a 12.5% lead in real life this is an artefact of the distribution of this month's by-election contests, and should not be something to be excited about in and of itself. 16 by-elections were Labour defences, and some of these were in places where you can still weigh the vote. But pinching a councillor each from UKIP and the Tories helps build the momentum surrounding the party. Meanwhile the LibDems are outperforming their national polling figures and are, at least where local contests are concerned, now sloshing around their historic level of 10 per centish. UKIP's woes carry on, albeit they at least out-polled the Greens this week and came close to matching them candidate for candidate. They must surely be praying for a Brexit "betrayal" to lift their fortunes again.

05/10/17
Adur DC Mash Barn: Lab gain from UKIP
Cheshire East UA, Crewe East: Lab hold
Hertsmere BC Borehamwood Kenilworth: Lab gain from Con
Hinckley & Bosworth BC, Burbage, Sketchley and Stretton: Con hold
Redcar and Cleveland UA, St Germains: Lib hold
Salford City MB, Claremont: Lab hold
South Bucks DC, Burnham Lent Rise & Taplow: Con hold
Warwick DC, Stoneleigh & Cubbinton: Con hold

12th October
Aberdeenshire UA Inverurie & District: Con hold
Ashfield DC Hucknall North: Ind gain from Con
Sheffield City MB Beighton: Lab hold
Tamworth BC Bolehal: Lab hold
Three Rivers DC Oxhey Hall & Hayling: Lib gain from Con
Wakefield BC Stanley & Outwood: Lab hold
Warrington BC Chapelford and Old Hall: Lab hold
Wyre BC Rossall: Lab hold

19th October
City of Lincoln Council, Carholme: Lab hold
Epping Forest DC, Lower Sheering: Con hold
Gravesham BC Meopham North: Con hold
Nottingham UA Basford: Lab hold
Nottingham UA Bestwood: Lab hold
Nottingham UA , Bulwell Forest: Lab hold
Hartlepool UA Seaton: Oth gain from Ind
Wigan MB , Astley Moseley Common: Lab hold

26th October
Charnwood BC Loughborough Hastings: Lab hold x2
Derbyshire Dales DC, Ashbourne South: Con hold
Herefordshire UA Kings Acre: Con gain from Oth
Kirklees MB Batley East: Lab hold
Mid Sussex DC East Grinstead Imberhorne: Con hold
Tameside MB, Droylsden East: Lab hold

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