Sunday 27 September 2015

Quarter Three Local By-Election Results 2015

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- Q2
Average/
contest
+/- Q2
+/-
Seats
Conservative
59
 26,443
  22.1%
 -13.6%
    448
 -1,050
   +2
Labour
56
 36,884
  30.9%
   -1.1%
    659
    -684
    -1
LibDem
44
 11,498
    9.6%
  +0.6%
    261
    -323
   +4
UKIP
48
   7,578
    6.3%
   -3.0%
    158
    -438
    -2
Green
39
   6,297
    5.3%
  +0.3%
    161
    -257
    -2
SNP*
13
 24,649
  20.6%
+17.4%
  1,896
 -2,170
   +1
PC**
  5
   1,616
    1.4%
  +0.5%
    323
    -234
    0
TUSC
  5
      264
    0.2%
  +0.1%
      53
      -19
    0
Ind***
21
   2,333
    3.5%
   -0.5%
     111
    -410
   -2
Other****
16
   1,900
    2.0%
  +0.6%
     119
    -316
    0


* There were 14 by-elections in Scotland
** There were eight by-elections in Wales
*** There were two independent clashes
*** Others this month were SSP (97 & 117 & 81), Left Unity (32), Scottish Libertarian Party (17 & 12), Health Concern (167), Pirate Party (13), Orkney Manifesto Group (593), North East party (214), Mebyon Kernow (85), Scottish Christian (77 & 33), Llais Gwynedd (123), and Yorkshire First (124 & 115)

Overall, 119,462 votes were cast over 62 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 12 council seats changed hands. For comparison see Quarter Two's results here.

As numbers recede to normal counts after the general election, the beach has been somewhat remoulded by the new political realities.  The Labour vote, despite the summer of leaderless ding-donging, held up quite well. Perhaps we can start saying a few things about the impact of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership by the time the Quarter Four election results come in. The SNP juggernaut, um, juggers on, though I will note turn out in Scottish by-elections are settling back down to normal levels. Can the SNP's incredible run, which sees them come third here in the popular vote, continue?

Also of interest is the overtaking of UKIP by the LibDems, which is pretty incredible when the press is cluttered up with nonsense about refugees and the EU referendum. For four months on the trot the yellows have trumped the purples. I have no liking for the LibDems but give me them over UKIP any day. Indeed, the Greens' strong performance saw them beat UKIP in one month of the last quarter. Let's hope their demise is not long coming.

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