Quarter Four Local By-Election Results 2016

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Q3	Average/ contest	+/-   Q3	+/- Seats
Conservative	78	38,215	30.8%	+2.8%	490	+66	-3
Labour	74	30,962	24.9%	-4.0%	418	-74	-8
LibDem	66	22,874	18.4%	+0.4%	347	+3	+7
UKIP	47	7,250	5.8%	-3.5%	154	-68	-1
Green	34	3,965	3.2%	-0.5%	117	-23	-1
SNP*	7	8,297	6.7%	+2.8%	1,185	-18	-1
PC**	5	1,819	1.5%	+0.4%	364	+249	+2
TUSC	0						0
Ind***	28	8,499	6.8%	+2.0%	304	+105	+5
Other****	11	2,331	1.9%	-0.3%	212	+61	0

* There were seven by-elections in Scotland
** There were eight by-elections in Wales
*** There were four Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Putting Hartlepool First (155), Patients Not Profit in our NHS (36), East Devon Alliance (324), Oxted and Limpsfield Residents Group (713), Women's Equality Party (173), Lewisham People Before Profit (314), Beverley Party (364), English Democrats (23 & 14), Newcastle First (164), and BNP (51)

Overall, 124,212 votes were cast over 81 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 29 council seats changed hands. For comparison see Quarter Three's results here.

This has not been a good quarter for Labour, and there is no positive spin you can put on the party's results. Vote share down, councillors down, average per contest down. What a cheery batch of figures to see us into the new year! The Tories are suffering too, and were it not for the five gains they made in November matters would have looked just a grim, albeit with a higher popular vote. What is interesting is despite the LibDem surge in by-election gains, which continued in this quarter, they're doing it without putting on mega-votes. Sure, for them to have over 18% now would have seemed fanciful a couple of years ago, but could indicate that seats won are the outcome of quite small margins, of a relatively thin layer of people returning to them from Conservatives, Labour and UKIP.

But more on this in the end of year round up.

Local Council By-Elections December 2016

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Nov	Average/ contest	+/-   Nov	+/- Seats
Conservative	21	7,895	29.2%	-9.1%	376	-331	-6
Labour	18	4,657	17.2%	-9.4%	259	-231	0
LibDem	15	5,525	20.4%	+3.0%	368	+18	+4
UKIP	12	1,961	7.2%	+2.6%	163	+21	-1
Green	5	412	1.5%	-0.9%	82	-20	0
SNP*	2	2,534	9.4%	+3.2%	1,267	+309	-1
PC**	0						0
TUSC	0						0
Ind***	8	4,034	14.9%	+13.8%	504	+329	+5
Other****	1	51	0.2%	-0.2%	51	-38	-1

* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There was one independent clash this month
**** Others this month consisted only of the BNP (51 votes)

Overall, 27,069 votes were cast over 21 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. The Conservatives won five contests, Labour four, LibDems five, SNP one, and Independents six. The Conservatives took a seat from UKIP with a 500+ safe margin. In all, 11 seats changed hands. For comparison with November's results, see here.

The first thing to note is how Labour have, this month, dropped behind the LibDems. Coming third for the second party of British politics is never a good look. While the story of dismalism is in-keeping with Labour's recent results, this month geography was really against it. The Tories were defending 12 seats, one of which fell to Labour. In the rest, the party wasn't much of a contender. The LibDems on the other hand properly cleaned up, taking four off the Tories while they had to make to with a consolation pick up from the overhyped and underperforming UKIP.

What can we take from this? The strength of the LibDems at local level is, again, being reconfirmed by ballot box results - despite what the polls say. And this isn't happening just in areas that voted Remain in June, it's across wards, across constitutencies. As suggested the other day, where the Leave/Remain axis is concerned, it so far appears that Remain voters are more likely to be motivated on the basis of their referendum vote than Leave people where it comes to casting ballots in by-elections. Something Labour should take note of.