Then tonight, Josh Simons, hitherto famous for overseeing dodgy doings while he was director of Labour Together, announced he was vacating his Makerfield seat in Manchester so Burnham could have a run. Burnham has confirmed he will seek the permission of Labour's NEC to be the candidate. And, interestingly, the chatter from Downing Street is that Starmer is not minded to block his candidacy. Things are about to get very interesting. And by 'very interesting', we means it's doubtful he'll remain in Number 10 by the end of summer.
Can Burnham can take Makerfield? The seat has been Labour's since it was formed in 1983, and Simons does have a decent majority of 5,400. But things were far from peachy at the local elections. Here, Reform ran away with victory, scoring almost 50% of the vote while Labour collapsed to 24% and the Greens scraped 11%. Although it was a different political time, Burnham did storm the mayoralty in 2024 with 63%. And the areas around Wigan, where Makerfield is situated, was particularly strong. As argued previously, there's a good chance the locals have flattered Reform. And Burnham has several other advantages: strong name recognition, a good local record for a Labour mayor, and a bit of an anti-Starmer cache. Punters there will know they're effectively voting for the next Prime Minister, which could boost him. Burnham is not guaranteed to win, but notwithstanding the local election numbers, there are more anti-right wing voters in the constituency to be mobilised. He's got to be the favourite to win it, assuming the NEC sides with him.
Which brings us back to Streeting. That Angela Rayner was cleared of wrongdoing by HMRC took some wind out of Streeting's sails on Thursday morning, but he is not a stupid man. He can read the same polls as the rest of us and how unlikely he would win a leadership election against virtually anyone, including Starmer himself. Perhaps he'll put in if Burnham successfully returns to remind the selectorate that he exists, but he's still young for a politician and, under a different leader, has the chance to reinvent himself as a convert to soft left Labourism. Especially if Burnham is serious about his promises to move Labour more in this direction. A case of his being down, but by no means out.
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Paul Holden talking to Novara yesterday was far too trusting about the motives behind this. Then again, Holden is probably too decent a man to put himself easily into the minds of these people. There's not redemption arc for Simons here - I'd bet money there's a quid pro quo of some kind. "I give you the keys to Number 10, I don't get into legal hot water or prison", or somesuch.
ReplyDeleteDon't watch the sausage getting made, etc.
^ This. ^
DeleteI wish they would just get on with dealing with the many problems facing the UK. The hard things like: young people being able to buy a house at some point; high value skills training; cost of living etc...
ReplyDeleteSadly those things have probably retreated over the horizon thanks to the cost of government borrowing, compounded by the global economic shockwaves from the rabid hippopotamus in the White House. Simply staying afloat and defending the country's sovereignty against Putin and the US christofascist movement is likely to be the limit for the foreseeable future.
DeleteStarmerite Labour blew the window of opportunity which they had. They were arguably making some headway on the cost of govt debt, but got almost everything else wilfully wrong. Now the role of the Labour Party is to absorb the blame for the miseries of the next few years, and then do whatever they have to do in order to avoid letting Farage into Number 10 - either a cordon sanitaire, or succumbing to the inevitability of PR. Whether or not there is a way back for the party in the future will probably depend upon whether or not they successfully bite at least one of those latter bullets, and also make the correct noises about having learned their lesson.
In the meantime, going into the next GE, the Green Party has something which will not be available to Labour again for many years - political rope. That is, the ability to make promises of nice things in the future and have those promises believed by voters.
What I'm not clear on is what material change Burnham would actually bring? Ok, there might be a bit of a dead cat bounce and maybe he's less tarnished than Starmer right now, but the thing he needs to do above all else, is lift the UK's productivity. For almost twenty years now productivity growth has been low and most of the serious issues have that at their root. Cost of living, housing, high energy prices, pressures from mass immigration, rising welfare costs etc...
ReplyDeleteI would like to know about the policy change and the economic strategy for the future. 5 year- 10 year plan.
ReplyDeleteHere's your 5-year plan, Anon 13:09: a belief that the prediction horizon is as long as 5 years, under present geopolitical, environmental, and technological conditions, should tick most of the boxes to get a person sectioned for their own safety.
DeleteStarker and more immediate concerns are the order of the day right now. For instance: reconnecting the moribund political class to the real political situation, sufficiently for them to steer a course away from a ruinous national orgy of unrestrained kleptocracy, mass murder, war, and probable subjugation to extractionist foreign powers. That kind of reconnection and steering is not a matter of trying to cautiously nudge GDP numbers, as Starmer and Reeves have belatedly discovered.
Cannot wait to see the bookies odds on the runners in Makerfield. Our Andy seems to think he has charisma and is loved by Mancunians and their neighbours. We shall see. With Reform and the Greens going at it hell for leather, the Tories not bothering and Labour hollowed out locally and people out of the habit of voting Labour it could be a near run thing. Imagine if the King of the North turns out to be the Great Pretender! He may find that it is not third time lucky.
ReplyDeleteCouple of things:
ReplyDeleteI hope to god that Simons doesn't reappear as some sort of SPAD to Burnham, he is deeply implicated in Labour Together. I listened to Paul Holden on Novara too, that was very cautious of him.
Second, I have a long memory stretching back to 2015, Burnham, Cooper and Kendall were like Mekons and could barely conjure an idea between them. I accept that Burnham has grown substantially in the intervening years, but I think we are overdoing the charisma here.
Thirdly, great interview Phil on Politics Theory Other: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObZv95MxPa8
And I remember Burnham's dire 2015 Leadership bid, starting with a launch in some hedge fund office or suchlike, to show his " pro business" credentials. Jeremy' s socialist pitch was such a difference to the other, entirely Blairite, candidates. And of course as Health Secretary, Andy was the first to privatise ( disasterously) an NHS hospital ! Don't be fooled, Burnham is a shape- shifting Blairite at heart. And of course , like all the other candidates, a paid up member of the Friends of Israel, in other words a genocide enabler. Burnham is a careerist wrong un. His mateyness with the utter snake, Simons, should surely ring alarm bells for all but the entirely credulous ?
ReplyDeleteIndeed, the current appearance of acquiescence to Burnham raises the intriguing possibility that "the markets" are down to their Plan C or Plan D candidate now.
DeleteIf that were true, then it would suggest that the aforementioned amorphous entity is finally relaxing its iron death-grip upon the Overton Window in the face of hard political realities. And (more positively speaking), belatedly rediscovering the value of compromise and grudging concessions to the proles - behaviour last seen nearly a century ago now, and long overdue for a return. See also the Democratic Party's too-little, too-late attempt to salvage Harris with Walz.
Whilst the less radical crowd among the modern Western aristocracy may have been slightly discomfited by the inexorable rebirth of the far-right monster, they probably needed to see viable populism break into view on both sides - in the form of Mamdani and Polanski - before their complacency could truly begin to waver.
The Greens need to get their act together- they have great future if they want it but they need to listen to experienced voices of which there are a few that can be trusted. Phil... being just one...
ReplyDeleteIt is a shame Streeting has never had a job outside politics- a question of representation. We should have people with more real world experience- and yes lots of people have been a bit poor as kids- and then they do the graft. Where will he get this now. Employment in the real world like those he represents. It would be a good start.
ReplyDeleteMy first thought on reading about Josh Simons' involvement was that this is surely Labour Together pulling all the strings again, with Burnham being the perfect puppet - some popularity, a bit of a following, some well-publicised success in Manchester and, as someone has commented, a shape-shifter, and so entirely malleable.
ReplyDeleteimagine being that little weasel and only being 32. What Labour Students does for you eh.
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