Quarter Two By-Election Results 2023

This quarter 156,612 votes were cast in 71 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 20 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter one's results here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Q1	+/- Q2 2022	Average	+/- Seats
Conservative	71	47,437	30.9%	+4.7	+1.4	668	-7
Labour	67	50,306	32.1%	+3.2	-5.4	751	0
LibDem	60	32,391	20.7%	+2.4	+2.7	540	+7
Green	44	14,077	9.0%	+0.3	+1.3	320	+4
SNP*	1	740	0.5%	-4.4	+0.4	740	-1
PC**	1	34	0.0%	-1.6	-0.3	34	0
Ind***	17	7,899	5.0%	-4.3	-1.6	465	+1
Other****	26	3,728	2.4%	+0.2	+2.0	143	+2

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were four Independent clashes
**** Others consisted of Alba (103), British Unionist (108), Christian People's Alliance (16), Communist Party of Britain (150), Freedom Alliance (7), Heritage (54), Liberal Party (10), Our West Lancashire (704, 674, 664), Reform (75, 87, 118, 121, 130, 264, 169), Scottish Family Party (28), TUSC (20, 23, 25, 35, 15), UKIP (114, 5)

The Tories continue their inexorable slide this quarter, even if their vote count modestly recovered. Again, it's the same story as the monthly tallies. Labour do well but are unable to build a commanding lead over the government because there are alternatives and they're doing quite well at the moment. Looking at the numbers, the case for a progressive alliance almost makes itself. Especially as the Liberal Democrats and Greens improved on their already good results re: the previous quarter, and came out of the period with more local council by-election victories than Labour. Yes, yes, it doesn't really matter because the glittering prize is Westminster. But what these results show is while Keir Starmer hunts through the Labour Party pledge book for policies to dump, the case can be made that he's weakening the foundations of his party. You might say it's the Tories who are propping up his poll leads. Without them? Well, without them we'll see. But if these elections are any indication, the Lib Dems and Greens are well poised to capitalise on any Labour difficulties when they're in Number 10.

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Local Council By-Elections June 2023

This month saw an improbable 55,555 votes cast in 20 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Nine council seats changed hands. Please note, because boundary changes effectively created six new seats the gain/loss totals won't tally. For comparison with May's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  May	+/- Jun 22	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	33	17,619	31.7%	+2.1	+6.4	534	-2
Labour	27	17,336	31.2%	-0.6	+1.3	642	+2
Lib Dem	25	12,104	21.8%	+1.4	-2.5	484	+3
Green	19	4,048	7.3%	-3.0	+0.5	213	+1
SNP*	1	740	1.3%	+1.3	+1.1	740	-1
PC**	0						0
Ind***	3	349	0.6%	-7.2	-10.7	116	+1
Other****	21	3,359	6.0%	+5.6	+5.2	160	+2

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were no independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Alba (103), British Unionist (108), Christian People's Alliance (16), Freedom Alliance (7), Heritage (54), Our West Lancashire (704, 674, 664), Reform (87, 118, 121, 130, 264, 169), Scottish Family Party (28), TUSC (23, 25, 35, 15), UKIP (5)

Quite a bit of volatility this month. The Tories lose out overall, despite emphatic wins in Stockton-on-Tees, while virtually everyone else is sitting pretty. But all the victorious parties got a knock. The Greens taking one from the Liberal Democrats, snatching another one from Labour, but conceding one to an independent. Speaking of the indies, where the hell were they in June? The 'Others' was where the action was at, with 10 different "parties" (a term one should use advisedly) entering the electoral fray. but, in vote terms, the Tories came out on top by a whisker. But only because they stood almost everywhere they could.

If there is a pattern, it seems anti-Toryism is the order of the day. Well, that seems to be the case if we're following the seat losses but the vote is holding up. Yes, caveats abound with how second order contests are more likely to turn out Tory support than other parties, but to still be winning in popular vote terms at this stage? That might be less a Tory effect and more a case of Lib Dem and Green strength, who continue to do well. Their performances here probably won't mean much when the general election comes round, but one term of a Keir Starmer government might see them put muscle on these by-election bones.

1st June
Camden, South Hampstead, Lab hold

8th June
Wiltshire, Tisbury, LDem hold

13th June
St Albans, St Peters, Grn gain from LDem

15th June
North Lanarkshire, Bellshill, Lab gain from SNP
Plymouth, Efford & Lipson, Lab hold
South Derbyshire, Hilton, LDem gain from Con x2, Con hold
Sunderland, Hendon, Lab hold
Surrey Heath, Frimley Green, LDem gain from Con, LDem hold x2
West Devon, Burrator, LDem gain from Con, LDem hold

22nd June
Bath & North East Somerset, Paulton, Lab hold x2
Southampton, Coxford, Lab gain from Con, Lab hold x2
Stockton-on-Tees, Hartburn, Con gain x3 (new boundaries)
West Devon, Tavistock North, Ind gain from Grn
West Lancashire, Rural South, Oth gain x3 (new boundaries)
Wyre, Warren, Lab gain from Oth, Lab hold

29th June
Bedford, Wyboston, Con hold
Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole, East Cliff & Springbourne, Grn gain from Lab
Dorset, Sherborne West, LDem hold
Haringey, Hermitage & Gardens, Lab hold
Southwark, Newington, Lab hold

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Rishi Sunak's Good Bad Day

Not the best day for the government. The Appeal Court said no to the Tories' obnoxious Rwanda plan, and they ruled it was not a "safe country" to transport refugees to. This morning, as expected, the Privileges Committee put out a report naming a handful of prominent Tory MPs as being in contempt of parliament. And sloshing away in the background has been the bankruptcy of Thames Water and the will they/won't they speculation about whether the government will nationalise it. The Tories have a choice of adding its debt to the state's balance sheet, or allowing the South East to run dry. And yet no decision has been made.

All three of these speak to an acute vacuity at the heart of government. Which shouldn't come as a shocker, considering Rishi Sunak began the year promising to do absolutely nothing. But even on these risible terms, he's failing. There is a school of thought that the Rwanda scheme, dreamed up by Priti Patel as one of myriad culture war substitutes to fill the hole left by Brexit, was never designed to be implemented anyway. This is state money being chucked on a wholly intentional strategy of tension, in the hope the Tories would find themselves on the right side of political opinion and Labour's "lefty" lawyer at odds with the British people. Amazing to think any of them could mistake Keir Starmer for a man who cares about liberties and human rights. The problem is that a wheeze cannot last forever, and if you keep promising you're expected to cough up the goods eventually. It might be good news for Suella Braverman, seeing as she gets another crack at laying out the ground for her leadership campaign. But for Sunak, it's a disaster. His hand-wringing criticisms of the judgement make him look powerless, and he's got to know it as well. Short of repealing the Human Rights Act and withdrawing from the ECHR, which is unlikely given the company he'll be keeping, his policy now relies entirely on the Supreme Court deciding in his favour. And if the Appeals Court have found the government at fault because they've breached the law, simply arguing the same thing again isn't likely to cut it.

Coming after disappointment in court, the Privileges Committee report must have come like a kick in the pants. Having ducked out of one vote to pronounce on Boris Johnson, Sunak will be hoping for a vitally important meeting with a foreign leader to pop up in the diary. The Privileges Committee report into the conduct of Johnson cheerleaders accused 10 parliamentarians, seven MPs and three lords, of trying to undermine its work. Nadine Dorries and Jacob Rees-Mogg are on the hook for impugning the integrity of the committee and orchestrating a campaign against its Conservative members. Also in the dock are Andrea Jenkyns, Michael Fabricant, Brendan Clarke-Smith, Mark Jenkinson, and Priti Patel. The report will go before the Commons on 10th July, and MPs will have a free vote on the fates of this most motley of crews. Sunak will avoid expressing a view, no doubt. But the rest? Some of the briefcase brigade would happily see these incur the 10 day suspension penalty, which will mean a slew of by-elections the Tories would lose. But on the bright side they could make the case they've shut the door on the Johnson era and get on being "sensible" and "grown up" without their theatrical distractions. There are good right wing reasons to get shot as well. Of the gang, Patel is in the safest seat but a big drop in her vote would harm her leadership ambitions, benefiting Braverman and Kemi Badenoch both. Not only would a potential rival be knocked down a peg, the riddance of the rest leaves their residual support up for grabs too. And for the right wing attention seekers who remain, like the always appalling Jonathan Gullis, that means more media opportunities. The situation has something for everyone!

Whatever happens, Sunak will take a hit if the Tories close ranks, or if they pave the way for suspensions and by-elections. Surely even he has to realise that the last few weeks have definitively shown there's no coming back for his party. It's not a question of whether they'll lose, but how much by. And it might just be the case that by-election pain in the Autumn could allow for a quieter life between now and the election, and maybe, just maybe, save a few more seats from the coming bloodbath.

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