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Friday, 30 June 2023

Local Council By-Elections June 2023

This month saw an improbable 55,555 votes cast in 20 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Nine council seats changed hands. Please note, because boundary changes effectively created six new seats the gain/loss totals won't tally. For comparison with May's results, see here.

Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
May
+/- Jun 22
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
          33
17,619
    31.7%
 +2.1
     +6.4
   534
    -2
Labour
          27
17,336
    31.2%
  -0.6
     +1.3
   642
   +2
Lib Dem
          25
12,104
    21.8%
 +1.4
      -2.5
   484
   +3
Green
          19
 4,048
     7.3%
  -3.0
     +0.5
   213
   +1
SNP*
           1
  740
     1.3%
 +1.3
     +1.1
   740
    -1
PC**
           0
  
    
 
   
    
     0
Ind***
           3
  349
     0.6%
  -7.2
    -10.7
   116
   +1
Other****
          21
 3,359
     6.0%
 +5.6
    +5.2
   160
   +2

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were no independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Alba (103), British Unionist (108), Christian People's Alliance (16), Freedom Alliance (7), Heritage (54), Our West Lancashire (704, 674, 664), Reform (87, 118, 121, 130, 264, 169), Scottish Family Party (28), TUSC (23, 25, 35, 15), UKIP (5)

Quite a bit of volatility this month. The Tories lose out overall, despite emphatic wins in Stockton-on-Tees, while virtually everyone else is sitting pretty. But all the victorious parties got a knock. The Greens taking one from the Liberal Democrats, snatching another one from Labour, but conceding one to an independent. Speaking of the indies, where the hell were they in June? The 'Others' was where the action was at, with 10 different "parties" (a term one should use advisedly) entering the electoral fray. but, in vote terms, the Tories came out on top by a whisker. But only because they stood almost everywhere they could.

If there is a pattern, it seems anti-Toryism is the order of the day. Well, that seems to be the case if we're following the seat losses but the vote is holding up. Yes, caveats abound with how second order contests are more likely to turn out Tory support than other parties, but to still be winning in popular vote terms at this stage? That might be less a Tory effect and more a case of Lib Dem and Green strength, who continue to do well. Their performances here probably won't mean much when the general election comes round, but one term of a Keir Starmer government might see them put muscle on these by-election bones.

1st June
Camden, South Hampstead, Lab hold

8th June
Wiltshire, Tisbury, LDem hold

13th June
St Albans, St Peters, Grn gain from LDem

15th June
North Lanarkshire, Bellshill, Lab gain from SNP
Plymouth, Efford & Lipson, Lab hold
South Derbyshire, Hilton, LDem gain from Con x2, Con hold
Sunderland, Hendon, Lab hold
Surrey Heath, Frimley Green, LDem gain from Con, LDem hold x2
West Devon, Burrator, LDem gain from Con, LDem hold

22nd June
Bath & North East Somerset, Paulton, Lab hold x2
Southampton, Coxford, Lab gain from Con, Lab hold x2
Stockton-on-Tees, Hartburn, Con gain x3 (new boundaries)
West Devon, Tavistock North, Ind gain from Grn
West Lancashire, Rural South, Oth gain x3 (new boundaries)
Wyre, Warren, Lab gain from Oth, Lab hold

29th June
Bedford, Wyboston, Con hold
Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole, East Cliff & Springbourne, Grn gain from Lab
Dorset, Sherborne West, LDem hold
Haringey, Hermitage & Gardens, Lab hold
Southwark, Newington, Lab hold

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