Party | Number of Candidates | Total Vote | % | +/- Aug | +/- Aug 18 | Avge/ Contest | +/- Seats |
Conservative | 19 | 9,961 | 33.7% | +4.0% | +0.3% | 524 | 0 |
Labour | 16 | 7,914 | 26.8% | +10.8% | -3.8% | 495 | +1 |
LibDem | 18 | 8,000 | 27.1% | -6.6% | +12.6% | 444 | +2 |
UKIP | 0 | 0 | |||||
Green | 12 | 1,170 | 4.0% | -0.2% | -3.6% | 98 | 0 |
SNP | 1 | 1,202 | 4.1% | -4.5% | -1.4% | 1,202 | 0 |
PC** | 0 | 0 | |||||
Ind*** | 4 | 655 | 2.2% | -3.1% | 165 | -3 | |
Other**** | 6 | 661 | 2.2% | -3.2% | +0.1% | 110 | 0 |
* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** No Independent clashes this month
**** Others this month consisted of Putting Cumbria First (23), Brexit Party (193), Liberal Party (293), End Austerity (138), Justice Party (5, 9),
A very interesting month, which just happened to contain my favourite by-election phrase; "Lab gain from Con." There were two obvious things that catch in the eye. The first is the complete absence of UKIP. Perhaps my memory isn't what it used to be, but I don't recall a month in the last seven years of covering by-elections when they didn't (or couldn't) stand a candidate. No Brexit Party either, which meant effectively the Tories had the right wing field to themselves. And though they won the popular vote (not that it matters a great deal), they were hardly storming ahead the divided opposition.
Yes, the divided opposition. Back in June, the forecast went that the LibDem surge would slip back in time as the by-elections cause by multiple MEP wins in their areas would work through, and the excitement of the EU elections passes. Well, thanks to the multiple Brexit shenanigans and Jo Swinson's hard remain posturing (is she for a second referendum? Is she for revoking Article 50?), they are leaps and bounds ahead of where they were this time last year, and completely unrecognisable versus the shell of a party that stumbled from election to election in 2017. And yet, while they have topped Labour again in the by-election stakes the tendency is one of backsliding.
Also, for the multiple nth time, we should remember that older voters are always more likely to vote than younger cohorts of people, and this is doubly and triply so in second order elections and council by-elections in particular. The LibDem surge we have seen can be put down to two factors. Either older voters are breaking for them in a big way, and it's certainly true softer Cameroon-y pro-EU Tories are giving the yellows a punt in increasing numbers, or LibDem supporters feel especially motivated to go out and vote while the supporters of the other parties aren't particularly fussed. Whichever it is, there is supposed to be a general election soon and when it comes we might have answers to this question.
5th September
Coventry MBC, Wainbody, Con hold
Eden DC, Penrith South, Con gain from Ind
Kingston-Upon-Hull UA, St Andrews & Dockland, Lab hold
12th September
Rushmoor BC, St Marks, LDem hold
Rutland UA, Ryhall & Casterton, Con gain from Ind
Shropshire UA, Bishop’s Castle, LDem hold
South Northamptonshire DC, Middleton Cheney, LDem gain from Con
Wellingborough BC, Finedon, Con hold
19th September
Canterbury BC, Chestfield, Con hold
Hammersmith and Fulham BC,& Fulham Broadway, Lab hold
Liverpool MBC, Old Swan, Lab hold
North Lanarkshire UA, Thorniewood, Lab hold
Somerset West and Taunton DC, Vivary, LDem gain from Con
Wiltshire UA, Ethandune, Con hold
26th September
Crawley BC, Tilgate, Con hold
Ipswich BC, Alexandra, Lab hold
Luton UA, Icknield, Lab gain from Con
Rochford DC, Sweyne Park & Grange, Con gain from Ind
West Sussex CC, Three Bridges, Con hold
"And yet, while they have topped Labour again in the by-election stakes the tendency is one of backsliding."
ReplyDeleteEr, Labour down 3.8%, Liberals up 12.6%. Doesn't look like backsliding to me. Things have changed. My guess is that the Liberal vote is from lots of young Labour voters switching to the Libs to oppose Brexit.
You're right that by-elections are characterised by lower polls, but on the evidence so far, it suggests that this understates the swing from Labour to Liberals, particularly as Corbyn's disastrous swing back to the idea of negotiating a fantasy have cake and eat it Brexit is probably not reflected in these results.
In the sharper conditions of a GE when people will come out more decisively to vote for Remain, and for a clear Remain party, the move from labour to Liberals will be all the more apparent. And, as momentum takes hold as voters look for whichever single party can best have the chance of beating the Tories, the more that badly impacts Labour.
1) I presume Phil is talking about slippage from August 2019, not August 2018 (Lib Dems down 6.6, Labour up 10.8, FWIW).
ReplyDelete2) Can you please, once and for all, give it a bloody rest with this 'fantasy have cake and eat it Brexit' stuff? It's bad enough on Twitter with sundry comedians, FBPE types and Lib Dems wittering on about Labour's 'unicorn Brexit'. EU officials stated openly and explicitly back in February this year that Labour's alternative Brexit platform was viable and could be negotiated very easily. This is a matter of fact, not opinion; the people talking snooti;y about 'unicorn deals' are saying they think Barnier, Tusk etc. are shameless liars (Euroscepticism how are you?). You may still think Labour's proposed Brexit deal is inferior to staying in the EU: that's why Remain will be an option on the ballot in any referendum. If there wasn't time to negotiate a Norway-style deal along those lines, Labour could simply put May's deal up as the alternative to Remain (in which case the whole Labour Party, including Corbyn, would certainly call for a Remain vote).
The Lib Dem line on Brexit is in no way clearer or less ambiguous than Labour: they pretend to believe that they can win an overall majority so they can yell 'Revoke Article 50!' as much as possible, while simultaneously calling for a 2nd referendum (which only differs from Labour's policy in the sense that they haven't ruled out putting no deal on the ballot - they are genuinely dumb and complacent enough to do a deal with Johnson for a no deal vs. Remain referendum, thinking they'll win it for sure).
the EU have never said that Briatin could be in the Customs Union and Single market, and simultaneously be able to negotiate its own trade deals, or have a seat at the table, whilst not abiding by requirements for free movement, jursidiction of the ECJ etc. It cannot agree to that, because it would destroy the EU itself. If it could agree to that, it could agree to scrapping the Irish backstop, or to the demands of the ERG.
ReplyDeleteWhat the EU said was that Labour could certainly negotiate a deal in which it remained in the Customs Union and Single Market, so that the irish backstop is not required. But, it could only do so, if it was outside the EU political institutions, if it accepted that a) it would have no seat at the table, and so no say in forming the rules and regulations of the Customs Union and Single market, and that it would not be able to sign its own separate trade deals.
It would have to pay to be a part of the Customs Union and Single Market, and its associated regulatory bodies, and that cost would probably be higher than it currently pays as an EU member, just as the pay to play charges are higher for non-members of a sports club than the charges for members. It would mean that the UK would have to accept jurisdiction of the ECJ, and continued free movement.
So, yes, Labour COULD have that deal offered by the EU, but a) it doesn't meet labour's Six tests, and b) why the bloody hell would any sane government want such a deal, rather than being an EU member which has lower costs, and allows you a say in the decision making???
"The Lib Dem line on Brexit is in no way clearer or less ambiguous than Labour: they pretend to believe that they can win an overall majority so they can yell 'Revoke Article 50!' as much as possible, while simultaneously calling for a 2nd referendum (which only differs from Labour's policy in the sense that they haven't ruled out putting no deal on the ballot - they are genuinely dumb and complacent enough to do a deal with Johnson for a no deal vs. Remain referendum, thinking they'll win it for sure)."
ReplyDeleteThis isn't true. The Liberals say they are for another referendum if it comes before another election. I still think that is wrong, because it confuses matters. However, the Liberals have not said that if they won a GE they would hold another referendum. That have said that a GE would be that second referendum, and that if they won it on a revoke Programme that would be the end of that matter.
That is perfectly clear and rational, whereas Labour's position most certainly is not.