Local Council By-Elections June 2024

This month saw 25,847 votes cast in 17 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Two council seats changed hands. For comparison with May's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- May	+/- Jun 23	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	16	6,464	25.0%	-2.0	-6.7	404	0
Labour	15	8,796	34.0%	-0.8	+2.8	586	+2
Lib Dem	16	3,723	14.4%	-4.4	-7.4	233	0
Green	14	1,590	6.2%	-5.3	-1.1	114	0
SNP*	2	1,725	6.7%	+6.2	+5.4	863	0
PC**	1	286	1.1%	+1.1	+1.1	286	0
Ind***	9	2,446	9.5%	+5.2	+8.9	272	-1
Other****	12	817	3.2%	-0.1	-2.8	68	0

* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes this month
**** Others in June consisted of Communist Party of Britain (47), Coventry Citizens Party (128), Reform (232, 88, 18), Scottish Libertarian (25), Sovereignty (12), TUSC (72, 57, 7), Workers' Party (20, 11)

The last month of by-elections before the general election, and do the results tell us much? With the Tories coming in at 25% of votes cast, that is at the upper edge of the snap shots captured by the pollsters. Most have them at quite significantly below that. Meanwhile Labour is only at 34%, below everything reported thus far. How to explain this discrepency. Is it all about local factors? They obviously play their part, because thee's no way the sundry independents up for election next Thursday are going to coming within spitting distance of 10% of popular support they've accrued here. Again, what's important is age. Older people are more likely to vote in council by-elections than younger people, and because mass conservatism is concentrated among older cohorts, as a general rule the Tories enter these contests at an advantage. Hence they are expected to outperform national polling figures while Labour are more likely to underperform. Which is what we see here, and if the Tories are this low here then the election result is going to be brutal.

4 June
Powys, Rhiwcynon, Con gain from Ind

6 June
North Lincolnshire, Axholme North, Con hold
North Lincolnshire, Brumby, Lab hold
Telford & Wrekin, The Nedge, Lab hold
Torbay, Wellswood, Con hold

13 June
Greenwich, Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham, Con hold
Highland, Tain & Easter Ross, Ind hold
West Dunbartonshire, Clydebank Central, Lab hold

20 June
Coventry, Radford, Lab gain (unfilled vacancy)
Mansfield, West Bank, Lab gain from Con
Mid Devon, Tiverton Westexe, LDem hold
Oxfordshire, Sutton Courtenay & Marcham, LDem hold
Sefton, St Oswald, Lab hold
Vale of White Horse, Sutton Courtenay, LDem hold

27 June
Cumberland, Harraby North, Lab hold
Hackney, Hoxton West, Lab hold
South Tyneside, Primrose, Ind hold

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