There Won't Be a Hung Parliament

When this stupid piece appeared on Sky News after the Tories' drubbing in last week's polls, I didn't think anyone would be daft enough to give it credence. Extrapolating from the votes cast, it argues Labour are on for 294 seats and the Tories 242. This means no overall majority and a hung parliament, and every single poll for nearly two years has been wrong. False hope is hope for some, and so this morning The Sun ran with it, and none other than our bruised Prime Minister himself was bandying it around as the most likely outcome.

With Tory disaster in the air, everyone is comparing now with 1997. Here's mine: even at the Tories' darkest moments John Major never publicly entertained the possibility his party wouldn't get anything other than a majority. The crisis now is deeper, and so Sunak's official optimism has been downgraded to match.

I don't expect anything else from lazy journalists with an agenda, or from a desperate Tory leader combing the entrails of defeated mayors and councillors for encouraging signs. But, unfortunately, there are those who take anything that suggests Labour aren't on course for a crushing victory as proof it's not going to happen. This has become more pronounced in recent years, where reduced turnout in by-elections and local elections supposedly provide evidence that pollsters have raised an illusion of Labour's inevitable victory. This is nonsense.

There are two types of election. There are first order elections, which are general elections. For most people these matter the most because the electorate gets to vote on who forms the next government, and this directly impacts on their lives. As such, more people take an interest and turn out to vote. Second order elections are those that are not a general election: by-elections of all kinds, local elections, Police and Crime Commissioner elections, mayoralties, Welsh Assembly and GLA elections, arguably elections to Holyrood. Because these "don't matter" for most people, voting numbers are lower. Because the stakes aren't as high those who do turn out are more likely to register a protest vote. Recall the special case of the 2019 EU elections, in which the Brexit Party topped the poll while the Liberal Democrats came second and the Tories limped in at fifth in their worst ever nation wide electoral performance. How did that play out in December's general election?

Extrapolating from local election results is a bit of fun, so only clowns take these exercises seriously. In the Sky numbers we read that 'others' can expect to occupy 66 seats in Westminster. As these are England-only results, are we supposed to believe that the Greens (who are targeting four seats and can reasonably expect two), the pro-Palestine independents (who might win a couple), George Galloway, and a whole host of residents associations and localists are going to win these seats. That will not happen because, again, people are voting for a government. A better guage of what's likely to happen are polls that ask for general election voting intention, and the periodic MRP polls that undertake seat-by-seat field work. And what they consistently report is Labour are going to win a big majority, and the Tories are on for a defeat of historic proportions.

None of this is to say all is peachy for Labour. As long forecast and argued, Keir Starmer is chipping away at the party's base. If there is something to take away for Starmer supporters and Labour strategists to chew on, it's that these elections are suggestive of the significant opposition the party can expect when it's in office.