The Tories' National Service Stunt

An election is called, ambushing everyone, including the governing party. The first few days of the campaign have been lacklustre to disastrous, and there is a polling mountain to clime of between 17 and 25 points, depending on which survey you pay attention to. If you were the incumbent Prime Minister in this position, how to turn this desperate situation around? For Rishi Sunak, promising the return of compulsory national service for 18 year olds.

According to James Cleverly speaking on Laura Kuenssberg, this idea is about getting young people "out of their bubble" and forcing them to mix with others from a range of backgrounds. The important bit, he said, was the "societal coming together". He talks about "fragmentation" and "detachment", and argues it's an "investment in young people" that might "pump-prime lifelong volunteering". 30,000 18 year olds will go into the military, with the rest doing the equivalent of 25 days in a variety of "voluntary" schemes. Such as food banks, helping the homeless, and clearing up the other social costs left by a long-standing Conservative government. This is to be funded by a mix of a crackdown on tax avoidance and raids upon the Shared Prosperity Fund, the Johnson-era levelling up scheme.

Contrary to Cleverly's claims, apart from the principles of liberty and freedom at stake there is no need for national service. For all of the Tories' concerns with anomie and youngsters not fitting in, the most recently available ONS figures showed 29% of 18-24 year olds already volunteer. In the first quarter of this year, 58.4% of 18-24 year olds were employed, which does not include those in full-time education. Furthermore, one in five 11-18 year olds are young carers. And, if anything, the rising generation are the most pro-social generation ever. The Tories know this, of course. Cleverly's arguments are made off vibes peddled by Telegraph and Mail scare stories, which in themselves bear zero scrutiny. Unsurprisingly, the party of fundamental dishonesty has hitched its wagon to a policy whose assumptions are fundamentally dishonest.

For once, the press pack have called Sunak's wheeze right. As polling shows, the further one is from the age of 18 the more enthusiastic the voter. With the forecast election result pregnant with the Tories' existential doom, cohering the core vote over chasing fair weather supporters is no optional extra. Another reason why a post-election right wing turn is more than likely. But also, that support is menaced by Reform. That Nigel Farage has ruled out standing for the "party" so he can spend more time grifting on the American lecture circuit is one positive to an otherwise gloomy campaign start, but the danger Reform could take hundreds of thousands of votes in marginal seats at the Tories' expense is well understood. Sunak is betting that national service tickles the fancy of Reform-curious voters in all sorts of ways. It plays to insufferable nostalgia for a time they never lived through, appeals to this layer's authoritarian instincts and fears of the new, and there's a vicarious thrill to be had from forcing pampered young people to do something they'd hate doing.

This idea of a national service "for the modern age" has floated around the Tory ether for a while, in both its voluntary and compulsory forms. But sadly for Sunak, quite apart from the practicality quibbles (how are young people going to be sanctioned if they refuse? Are they going to get banged up?), the idea this could win votes doesn't hold much water. For every elderly voter won back from Reform or abstention, they are helping mobilise a greater anti-Tory feeling among young people themselves. While today's 18 year olds won't be undertaking the scheme (the government talks hazily about it being up and running by the end of the decade), they will feel it's an attack on them, encourage them to turn out, and to vote accordingly. For some it might prove to be a radicalising moment, a realisation that the powers that be want even more from them without offering anything in return. And then there are the parents, who are unlikely to be supportive. National service is a cynical stunt and one that might prove counterproductive.

Not that any of this matters. The promised return of national service has no chance of seeing the light of day under the Tories, seeing as oblivion awaits. But, despite mockery from sundry Labour MPs on social media and the Sunday politics shows, the leadership's response has been to attack the funding rather than the principle of the scheme. Either this implies they see merit in the Tories' arguments, which wouldn't surprise anyone, or once again they don't want to challenge the prejudices of the core Tory vote they're immolating their base for to win over. Is there no political argument Keir Starmer and co. won't run away from?

Either way, Labour will be very happy without this announcement. If the Tories are doing all the leg work to give good reasons to not vote for them, the less pressure there is on Starmer to offer anything positive.

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