Local Council By-Elections August 2023

This month saw 28,373 votes cast in 15 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Eight council seats changed hands. For comparison with July's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Jul	+/- Aug 22	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	15	6,476	22.8%	-5.8	+0.1	432	-5
Labour	13	7,993	28.2%	-2.7	+6.2	615	0
Lib Dem	14	7,327	25.8%	+12.4	-7.7	523	+5
Green	13	3,245	11.4%	-2.3	+7.7	250	0
SNP*	0						0
PC**	1	346	1.2%	+0.5	+1.2	346	0
Ind***	9	1,033	3.6%	-5.1	-14.0	115	+1
Other****	8	1,953	6.9%	+4.9	+6.4	244	-1

* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There was on by-election in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes this month
**** Others consisted of Gwlad (8), SDP (24), TUSC (5, 28, 26), Upminster and Cranham Residents' Association (1,642), Vectis (178), Yorkshire Party (42)

Last month was a historic round up of by-election results because it marked the first time the Greens has overtaken the Liberal Democrats. As if to pooh-pooh that achievement, the LibDem vote surged and they picked up no fewer then five seats. The Greens meanwhile held both their seats that were up and still managed double figures, but that not the occasion we mark today. Instead, we look at the Conservatives and not only have they done awfully - losing every seat they were defending - in popular vote terms this is the first time they've come in third place.

Does this signify anything? Only that the Tories' poor showing in the polls is reflected in council by-elections. Except this is doubly bad because the Tories have some inbuilt advantages in local authority contests. Yes, I'm among the first to say that second order elections are not first order elections and people are more likely to protest than follow through come the general election (sorry LibDems, you won't be getting 26% of the vote in a year or so's time), but the more a party's base indulges a protest vote the more likely they are to turn away from them when it matters. It's how UKIP were able to build a strong following. That and wall-to-wall media coverage. A very bad month for the Tories then.

In September five more Tory seats are up. Will they crash and burn again?

3 August:
Dudley, Wollescote & Cradley, LDem gain from Lab
East Sussex, Meads, LDem gain from Con
Norfolk, Freebridge Lynn, LDem gain from Con
Reading, Norcot, Lab hold

10 August:
Havering, Upminster, Oth hold
Somerset, Castle Cary, LDem gain from Con
Wychavon, Evesham South, Grn hold

17 August:
Middlesbrough, Ayresome, Ind gain from Lab
St Albans, Marshalwick East & Jersey Farm, LDem hold

24 August:
Bristol, Bishopston & Ashley Down, Grn hold
Dudley, St James's, Lab gain from Con
Isle of Wight, Wootton Bridge, LDem gain from Oth

31 August:
Caerphilly, Penmaen, Lab hold
Derbyshire, Swadlincote South, Lab gain from Con
Kirklees, Batley East, Lab hold