Local Council By-Elections February 2023

This month saw 26,947 votes cast in 14 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Eight council seats changed hands. For comparison with January's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Jan	+/- Feb 22	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	13	8,186	30.1%	+5.0	-6.1	630	-4
Labour	13	7,614	28.3%	-15.0	+8.1	586	+1
Lib Dem	11	5,281	19.6%	+13.3	-6.1	480	+3
Green	9	2,362	8.8%	+1.8	+1.4	262	+1
SNP*	1	1,455	5.4%	+5.4	+5.4	1,455	0
PC**	3	364	1.4%	+1.4	+1.4	121	0
Ind***	9	1,170	4.3%	8.9	-5.4	130	-1
Other****	5	515	1.9%	-2.8	+1.1	103	0

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were three by-elections in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others in February consisted of Alba (178), Christian People's Alliance (93), Reform (85), Rejoin (99), Scottish Family Party (60)

Another bad month for the Tories. Unexpectedly picking up a seat from Labour in Denbighshire is small consolation for hammerings almost everywhere else. The vote tally really flatters them as the crisis carries on biting into the government's performance in the polls. Significant moments on the list below is probably Labour's taking out the Tories in Aberdeen. Some cheer for those who think the SNP are beyond the pail given they topped first preferences, but it underlines what we already know from Scottish polling: the Tories are third place in Scotland and have lost out badly to Labour.

Also notable was the Green victory in Bristol, which significantly increases their chance of taking Thangham Debbonaire's seat and returning their second MP when the time comes. But everywhere else the Lib Dems recovered after January's blip and did the bulk of the month's Tory bashing. Hence why I think they'll do better at the next election than polls are suggesting.

Next month there are 17 contests to look forward to, but luckily for the Tories they're defending just five of them. So even if they lose everything it won't look disastrously embarrassing.

2nd February
Bristol, Hotwells & Harbourside, Grn gain from LDem
North Northamptonshire, Northall, Lab gain from Con
Torfaen, Llantarnam, Ind hold

9th February
Cheltenham, Battledown, LDem gain from Con
Dartford, Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley, Con hold
Denbighshire, Rhyl Ty Newydd, Con gain from Lab
Hertfordshire, Hitchin North, Lab hold
North Yorkshire, Masham & Fountains, LDem gain from Con

16th February
Barnet, Golders Green, Con hold
Cambridgeshire, St Neots The Eatons, LDem gain from Ind
Cornwall, Long Rock, Marazion & St Erth, LDem gain from Con
Sefton, Netherton & Orrell, Lab hold

23rd February
Aberdeen, Dyce, Bucksburn & Danestone, Lab gain from Con
Wrexham, Smithfield, Plaid Cymru hold

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