At 10pm on 12th December 2019, Starmer dropped the second referendum like a hot potato. Having used the issue to put him ahead of the pack to be Jeremy Corbyn's successor, the Tory win emphatically closed Brexit down as a political issue. Hence, Starmer talked vaguely about preserving some of the advantages of EU membership in the subsequent leadership contest, but once elected anything about the EU and the second referendum did not leave his lips. Indeed, when Boris Johnson's hard Brexit was put to the Commons for ratification two years ago, Labour whipped in favour of it. Since then, with Brexit demonstrating itself to be a dismal failure - in line with all expectations - it's an issue Starmer would prefer not to go anywhere near. The Tory media have been kind not to have talked about his previous die hard remainism, but to be fair to Starmer he hasn't given away any hints about what Britain's relationship with the EU will be like when he gets into Downing Street. There is no meat for the press to worry at, and the shadow cabinet have maintained a disciplined radio silence.
This can't go on forever. In his clumsy, half-arsed way Rishi Sunak has baited Starmer at Prime Minister's Questions about it, but each time he doesn't rise to it. Indeed, the more Starmer gets asked about this over the next 18 months the more we'll see stock phrases about campaigning for remain but respecting the result. Almost as if second referendum/continuity remainism never happened, or if it did Keir Starmer had nothing to do with it. Ridge is right, then. "Take back control" and occasional dalliances with talk about the "freedoms" of Brexit underlines a single-minded effort to win back the Red Wall'ers, and ensure this cannot be used as a wedge issue against Labour again. The only wedge Starmer is now interested in forcing is between the Tories and everyone else.
This does leave a question mark over the UK's future relationship with the EU. Those who think Starmer still keeps the remainer faith and is going to take us back in short order are deluding themselves. The leave vote won't stop being electorally significant for the lifetime of a Starmer premiership, and he's not going to give the Tories an anti-EU populist shot in the arm as they lick their wounds following the next election. The best EU supporters can look forward to is a rationalisation of the absurdities of the EU trade agreement. Excited people might talk about a membership application, but that's all it would be. Talk.
Unfortunately for Starmer, playing fast and loose with remainism is going to have political consequences. When all is said and done, for the viability of the Labour Party embracing the second referendum position was the least worst option in 2019. However, when he turns out not to be Mr Remain in deep cover, what then? For opposition to a Starmer government, while the spent Tories will be the touch post for right wingery and reaction, the growing constituency of social liberalism and every day leftism is going to find forms of opposition of its own. And some of this will undoubtedly take on a pro-EU/return yesterday flavour. Given what happened in the last set of catastrophic EU elections, it could offer an avenue for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens to establish themselves as serious electoral opponents to Labour. Working age people are more likely to find them attractive than the Tories, and for good reason.
For the moment, all this is to come. With the national mood firmly against the Tories, burying his past involvement with the second referendum campaign isn't going to harm Starmer or Labour any. Once he's been in office for a year or so, the story may well be different.
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If the UK was to remain in the EU in 2016 it would have to remain in the Single Market, and to remain in the Single Market it would have to accept European Freedom of Movement, and that would require prominent politicians and business to campaign strongly for FoM. (FoM of labour is one of the four pillars of the SM, along with freedom of movement of capital, services and goods: the rest of the EU are/were highly unlikely to allow a member state to have the benefits of freedom of movement of capital/services/goods without freedom of movement of labour. Margaret Thatcher was one of the architects of the SM and its four pillars and the rest of the EU is very unlikely to allow the UK to wriggle out of the rules that the UK helped to create).
ReplyDeleteIt has been clear for 8 - 9 years that most Labour MPs (and head office) are not going to make any effort to defend European FoM. The 2015 manifesto said "controls on immigration" which must have meant ending European FoM (as there were already controls on all other forms of immigration). Jonathan Freedland wrote some absurd articles in the Guardian in 2015/16 about how the correct line for Labour should be staying in the EU but ending FoM (which was very unlikely to happen). Balls and Watson turned up in the middle of the referendum campaign to argue for EU membership without FoM (which was very unlikely to happen). The only person who was willing to campaign for FoM was Corbyn, which was one of the reasons the rest of the PLP hated him: but he was right - Remain means campaigning against the myths around FoM (ad campaigning against the Sun and the Mail).
For almost 10 years Labour has been a Hard Brexit party - it was more concerned at ending FoM than staying on the EU. Yet it is unclear that it is going to win over Brexity voters because it isn't possible to give them everything that they want. And the risk is that it loses Remain voters when they realise how soft Labour's commitment is to a close relationship with the rest of Europe (unless the Sun and the Mail change their position).
Guano
«to be fair to Starmer he hasn't given away any hints about what Britain's relationship with the EU will be like when he gets into Downing Street.»
ReplyDeleteReally?
«Labour wants to get Brexit done. We want the government to succeed in securing a deal in the national interest and to protect the Good Friday Agreement. Like the rest of the country, we want to move on from Brexit and see the UK making future trade deals across the world.»
«Labour Brexit chief urges party’s Remainers to ‘get over it and move on’ in conference speech [...] “It sounds a little bit harsh to get over it and move on, but that’s what the public have said to us in 2019, and how we move on and where we move on to I think is up for grabs.”»
«the key swing voter Labour hopes will win them the next election: middle-aged mortgage man. [...] This person almost certainly voted leave, Ford added, explaining Labour’s insistence that it will not take the UK back into the single market.»
https://labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-sets-out-labours-5-point-plan-to-make-brexit-work/
«Setting out Britain’s relationship with Europe under a Labour government, Starmer will say: “With Labour, Britain will not go back into the EU. We will not be joining the single market. We will not be joining a customs union.” He will add: “We will not return to freedom of movement to create short term fixes. Instead we will invest in our people and our places, and deliver on the promise our country has.”»
«The leave vote won't stop being electorally significant for the lifetime of a Starmer premiership»
ReplyDeleteLook again at this:
“the key swing voter Labour hopes will win them the next election: middle-aged mortgage man. [...] This person almost certainly voted leave, Ford added, explaining Labour’s insistence that it will not take the UK back into the single market.”
Apparently Starmer's New New Labour is not aligning itself merely with "soft tory" swing Conservative voters, and not even with UKIP swing voters, but with core UKIP voters, left adrift by Nigel Farage, and not wholly persuaded by Reform UK. A sign of the times?
"Apparently Starmer's New New Labour is not aligning itself merely with "soft tory" swing Conservative voters, and not even with UKIP swing voters, but with core UKIP voters, left adrift by Nigel Farage, and not wholly persuaded by Reform UK. A sign of the times?" (Blissex)
ReplyDeleteWhen Corbyn was elected LP Leader in 2015 a number of Labour MPs were reported as saying "This is terrible. How are Labour going to attract UKIP voters?" It has been clear for almost 10 years that this is the demographic that the PLP and Labour HQ want to attract: the advantage is that their views usually align with what Rupert Murdoch is saying, so saying things that resonate with this group avoids any arguments with Rupert and his outriders. Further evidence:-
- Cooper's constant harping on about "legitimate concerns about immigration"
- the 2015 manifesto "controls on immigration"
- the fact that most Labour MPs did very little during the referendum campaign
- the loud insistence by MPs like Chuka Umunna and Rachel Reeves after the referendum that FoM should end
- the fact that Rachel Reeves has been going around "Red Wall" constituencies recently saying "Isn't it good that FoM has ended?"
- voting for Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement and not making a big fuss about the Tories' attempts to wriggle out of the Northern Ireland aspects
The call for a second referendum in 2019 was a blip, as a response to the local and EU election results that showed that there was a significant number of voters still angry about Brexit. I very much doubt that this was a real commitment to fighting to stay in the EU or the Single Market. It is highly unlikely that any of these MPs were going to tour the country and tell people that they had been lied to by Murdoch's newspapers.
Going back further, Dennis McShane has written about his frustration when he was Minister for Europe that he couldn't get Blair to make any speeches in favour of EU membership (and that Campbell prevented other Ministers from making pro-EU statements) and that Blair admitted that this was because he was afraid of the reaction of the Murdoch press. The autobiographies of the big beasts from the Blair era all talk about "keeping a low profile on Europe". Brexit happened because sections of the press and the Tory Party lied constantly and because the rest of out political establishment didn't push back against the lying. I doubt that this will change.
Guano