Local Council By-Elections October 2022

This month saw 34,707 votes cast in 18 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Eight council seats changed hands. For comparison with September's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Sept	+/- Oct 21	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	16	9,984	28.8%	-6.0	-5.7	624	-1
Labour	15	11,404	32.9%	+4.2	+9.1	760	+1
LibDem	17	6,995	20.2%	+7.7	-1.8	411	0
Green	10	3,097	8.9%	-1.2	+4.1	310	-1
SNP*	0						0
PC**	1	291	0.8%	-1.8	+0.3	291	+1
Ind***	5	2,470	7.1%	-1.5	-2.0	494	0
Other****	5	466	1.3%	+0.3	+0.7	93	0

* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There were two by-elections in Wales
*** There were no Independent clashes in October
**** Others this month consisted of Residents for Guildford and Villages (185), TUSC (45, 23), UKIP (55), Workers' Party (158)

Thinking about the collapse of the Tories' poll ratings, you could be forgiven for thinking they'd experience an outright rout on the by-election front. And yet, it didn't happen. While coming out of October with the net loss of one, they took seats from Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens. In some of those cases local factors were at the fore, particularly in Labour's spectacular loss in Leicester. Does this suggest anything about the national picture?

Two things. As observed here many times before, consistent with older people's greater likelihood to vote this becomes even more pronounced at local by-elections. This has over the last decade advantaged the Tories given their disproportionate backing by pensioners. Hence their drop in support as reflected by council by-elections will be shallower than the polls suggest. Conversely, the backing for the other parties are also going to get dampened by this age effect. Second, older people are more likely to follow the local press and therefore be more aware of town hall shenanigans. Volatility here follows through with volatility in the voting. Therefore, when there's an unexpected swing away from the national polls chances are it's a comment on local performance and not what's going on in Westminster.

6 October:
Birmingham, Sparkbrook & Balsall Heath East, Lab hold
Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole, Highcliffe & Walkford, Ind hold
Ceredigion, Lampeter, PC gain from Lab
Eastbourne, St Anthony, LDem hold
Mendip, Butleigh & Baltonsborough, Con hold
Shropshire, Bridgnorth West & Tasley, Lab gain from Con

13 October:
Epping Forest, Waltham Abbey South West, Con gain from Grn
Gloucester, Tuffley, Con hold
Hartlepool, Throston, Lab hold
Leicester, North Evington, Con gain from Lab
Stockport, Edgeley & Cheadle Heath, Lab hold

20 October:
Broadland, Thorpe St Andrew North West, Lab gain from Con
Fareham, Portchester East, Con gain from LDem
Guildford, Tillingbourne, LDem gain from Con
Monmouthshire, Devauden, Con hold
St Helens, Moss Bank, Lab hold

27 October:
Derbyshire, Long Eaton, Lab gain from Con
Sandwell, Wednesbury South, Lab hold

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