What are the Chances of a Snap Election?

Clever-clever posturing or genuine jitters? Pippa Crerar reports that Deborah Mattinson, Keir Starmer's policy guru, has put out a memo advising Labour higher ups that Liz Truss can expect a double-digit bounce from the polls when she's coronated on 5th September. Under these circumstances, she might be tempted to go for a quick election. This is because any uptick in Tory fortunes is likely to be short-lived as a) she has no plan for tackling the cost of living crisis, and b) according to Labour's focus groups, the more they see of her the less they like. If this was a tactical leak to buoy Labour's spirits when Truss doesn't get a 10-12 point bounce, fair enough. But if this is Mattinson's genuine view, it's flying in the face of the evidence.

Not long ago, I suggested Truss poses Labour a threat if she proves herself strategically and tactically flexible. Since those words were written, her performance during the leadership contest has shown her to be anything but. You might argue she's sticking with her low tax plan, if it could be termed thus, to make sure those members' votes pile on up and she'll break with it once ensconced in Number 10. Her problem is that, though there are problems with Labour's price freeze, it has made political weather. Coming up with a more generous scheme is unlikely because of the problems that would pose parliamentary management, and something that doesn't come up to scratch would be an electoral catastrophe of Black Wednesday proportions. In other words, Labour have already nerfed her threat and boxed her into a very difficult position. Truss and her strategists know this, and are unlikely to want this position exposed during an election campaign.

Secondly, it doesn't seem credible to suggest Truss can look forward to a big bounce. In 2015 and 2016 Jeremy Corbyn got no bounce because Labour politicians did a pretty good job of trashing his standing and making out many of his positions were politically illegitimate or too extreme. This framing caught on and he was never able to push through it, even in the aftermath of the 2017 election. A more apposite example might be Boris Johnson in 2019. As a celebrity politician, throughout the contest the Tories more often held their lead over Labour than not because Johnson, as the candidate most likely to win, had Brexit as a cause to rally around. The result wasn't a massive bounce in support. A snap poll by YouGov (26th July) saw a four point increase, widening the Tory lead from six to ten points. Ipsos saw the lead extend from two points on 25th June to ten on 30th July. But it wasn't universal. ComRes reported a one point lead on 25h July, which turned into a one point deficit by the 28th. If the best known Tory in the land couldn't manage an over large and consistent bounce across the pollsters, what chance the more anonymous Truss?

But Truss has not been invisible. Arguably, this has been the most heavily covered Tory leadership contest ever. Ill-fated prime time TV slots and a seemingly endless cycle of hustings variously broadcast by other media outfits have meant a constant drip of news into the press and news bulletins. Everyone who keeps an eye on the news will have an impression of the contest, and know neither candidate have no solutions to pressing difficulties. Among Tory voters, 49% of them prefer Johnson with only 18% going for Truss. Not a vibe the Truss campaign are going to be happy with. Likewise, following Starmer's bill freeze announcement he's pulled eight points clear of Truss, who he trailed by a point a fortnight ago. And the reception for Truss's tax cuts is looking frosty. Where is a poll bounce coming from?

When Truss takes over, she will face a crisis whose depth and scope the Tories would rather pretend doesn't exist. The arrival of 18.6% inflation doesn't care whether they notice or not. What she has said so far has impressed none but the party faithful, but what she does have is a majority of 75. The Tories are divided, but if she brings enough of the ex-Sunak camp into cabinet she could neutralise internal opposition while offering whatever her cost of living plan turns out to be. Politically, with the majority of declared MPs and members in her corner, and under pressure by events no Prime Minister, even if elected by Tory constitutional coup, is going to see that relative stability dashed on rising prices, rising joblessness, and deepening recession. One cannot rule out an early general election entirely, but assuming Truss fancies being in the job for at least a couple of years it would be reckless foolishness for her to risk it.

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