Belated Notes on the Old Bexley Votes

Unlike some on the left, I thought Labour's performance in the aforementioned by-election (following the death of James Brokenshire) was a fairly decent performance. A 10-point swing in a no-hoper seat, the virtual disappearance of the Liberal Democrat vote (but, interestingly, not the Greens), the highest proportion of the vote since 2001, and the first time in a parliamentary by-election Labour has advanced under Keir Starmer. The leader and his office will be happy with that one, and judging by the ostentatious backslapping the Tories gave themselves throughout Friday they're relieved Labour didn't pull off a Chesham and Amersham.

Nothing to see here then. A feel good story for Labour as pollsters put the parties around level pegging? Yes, but it does flag up a couple of weaknesses the party could do well to reflect on. The first is the fact Labour didn't pull off an upset. Between 1992 and 1997, the very mention of a by-election put fear into the hearts of Tory high command as super safe seats tumbled to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. These disasters testified to the contempt with which the Tories were held by the public-at-large and the sense of momentum gathering in the opposition parties' sails. Fast forward to today and Labour is no beneficiary of this enthusiasm, and it's not hard to fathom why. It does not exist. Instead Starmer benefited from tactical moves from LibDem voters, but this proved nowhere near enough to unseat the Tories. Had the party managed to turn out its 2019 vote however it could have been possible.

There's a but coming. By-elections always fall off in turnout, but this issue is particularly concerning in Old Bexley and Sidcup. At 33.5%, participation more than halved on the general election - which returned a higher than national average turnout at just shy of 70%. This is much lower than Hartlepool (47%), Chesham and Amersham (52%), and Batley and Spen (also 47%). Yes, the Tory vote stayed home but so did Labour's previous support too. This suggests serious disengagement in a seat where the turnout would be expected to be high. You don't need to whip out Maslow's hierarchy of needs to know there might be other pressing concerns on voters' minds presently, but alienation from politics can't be discounted. We have Boris Johnson's antics, but also an apathetic attitude toward the Labour leader himself. Vox pops in the Tory press from the by-election's frontline found former Tory voters nonplussed by his reluctance to oppose and overall grey blur quality. Who'd have thought "showing leadership" by attacking his own party would impress less than taking the fight to the Tories? Perhaps had Labour tried commanding politics throughout the Covid crisis by offering a mix of suggestions and criticism, ordinary punters might have noticed. In other words, Labour is not offering the alternative disgruntled Tories are looking for. And this is after consistently positioning the party to the right for 20 months. Time for a rethink?

The second issue relates to that Green vote. In Chesham the Green vote declined slightly. In Old Bexley, the proportion it won grew modestly. That is to say while the LibDems were squeezed by Labour, the Greens were not. And this is a problem. As argued previously, there is significant overlap between the new core vote won to Labour by Corbynism and that pursued by the Greens. While this support has piled up in the big cities, it is nevertheless spread everywhere. The more Starmer punches left and ignores the hopes and interests of our people, the more they will look at alternatives and, presently, the Green Party is the best placed to benefit. This played itself out at an extremely modest level in Bexley, and it's not about to result in the Greens sweeping up Labour seats, but enough votes bleeding to the Greens here and there imperil Labour's chances in the marginals it has to win.

What might negate this is the rebranded Brexit Party, or Reform UK (REFUK for short, appropriately enough). After dismal council by-election results, getting six per cent on Thursday and beating the Greens and LibDems into third place had poured some juice into a tank running on vapours. There is a hard right vote that Johnson was able to win back to the Tories in 2019, and it shows some are happy to use a by-election to protest in that political direction. If REFUK also do creditably in North Shropshire, Nigel Farage's claim that he's mulling over a return to politics might help him make up his mind.

An uninteresting by-election, then. Albeit one in which all the tensions and potentials simmering beneath the surface of politics in England were present and made themselves felt. The Tories were bowed but not broken and Labour made modest progress, but the irritants at their flanks are showing they might just make their lives much more difficult in the future.

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