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Saturday, 2 October 2021

Quarter Three By-Election Results 2021

This quarter 118,068 votes were cast over 74 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison you can view Quarter Two's results here.

  Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- 
Q2  21
+/- Q3 2019
Average
+/-
Seats
Conservative
         75
40,516
   34.3%
  -5.5
    +3.6
   540
   +1
Labour
         64
29,795
   24.2%
  -7.8
    +5.8
   466
    -6
LibDem
         62
19,740
   16.7%
 +5.5
   -15.3
   318
   +6
Green
         49
12,731
   10.8%
 +3.2
    +7.3
   260
   +6
SNP*
          5
 5,968
    5.1%
 +4.5
    +1.1
 1,194
    -1
PC**
          1
    35
    0.0%
  -0.6
     -1.1
    35
     0
Ind***
         26
 6,020
    5.1%
 +0.2
    +0.5
   232
    -7
Other****
         30
 3,476
    2.9%
 +0.7
    -1.2
   116
   +1

* There were five by-elections in Scotland
** There were two by-elections in Wales
*** There were two independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Aspire (1,204), Basildon Community Residents Party (82), Communist Party of Britain (61), For Britain (37, 26, 19), Independence for Scotland (47, 42), Libertarian (11, 16), North East Party (89), Putting Cumbria First (28), Reform UK (19, 29, 37, 23), Residents Association of Cuddington (585), Residents for Wilmslow (447), Socialist Labour Party (57), Taking the Initiative Party (18), TUSC (24, 27, 9, 39, 50, 48), UKIP (11, 28), Women's Equality Party (37), Yorkshire Party (347)

Very much a one third/two-thirds quarter. Riffing off their triumph in May, the Tories continued to put seats on in July but abruptly went into reverse in August and September. Even Labour took a seat off them. It's far too early to say if the high water mark of the Tories is well and truly over and we're now returning to by-election business as usual, where the incumbent government becomes the collective punching bag. Or whether Labour will return to that role over the next quarter.

What can be said is the arrival of the Greens this last quarter. This is their best ever quarterly performance in percentage terms and net haul of seats. June and July were exceptional months for the party, and matched by an improved showing in some of the polls what we're seeing in by-election performance does appear to reflect something real. While these polls are showing would-be Labour voters switching (as forecast), the actual results on the ground find the Greens menacing Tory seats, often in the country shires. I for one welcome the opening of a new front against the Tories. As UKIP's rise tells us: when a challenger party gets to a certain critical mass it can start gouging the vote shares of other parties too. Perhaps in this case, winning over Labour and LibDem supporters have provided them a base to start cleaving into the Tories. Who can say at this stage, except their performance cannot be sniffed at. We'll see if this can be sustained.

Image Credit
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2 comments:

  1. Unknown3 October 2021 at 12:33

    With the exception of two Canadian provinces ( where they have been the opposition party), nowhere in the world have the Greens ever been serious political players in any state, province or country without PR. At the next GE, the Greens could increase their vote five-fold over 2019 --- that is, jumped from 850,000 to 4,000,000 --- and still elect only 1 MP. In 2015, UKIP got nearly 4,000,000 vote (or more than 12% of the total) and ended up with 1 MP.

    And in the same vein, no left-of-Labour party will stand a chance electorally under TPTP. FPTP creates electorally duopolies. https://getprdone.org.uk/blog-the-nearly-iron-laws-of-fptp/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous4 October 2021 at 13:37

    GOTCHA Keef.

    ReplyDelete

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